Activity patterns in space and time: calculating representative Hagerstrand trajectories

Daily activity diaries can be recorded as sequences of characters representing events and their contexts as they unfold during the day. Dynamic programming algorithms as used in bioinformatics have been used by a number of researchers to measure the similarities and differences between travel patterns on the basis of temporal sequencing of events, activity transition, and total activity time. The resultant similarity matrices have been shown to be more effective in classifying sequential patterns than classifications based on alternative similarity indices. The basic algorithms can be amended to include the geographic coordinates of events by a suitable amendment to the definition of distance. This permits quantitative classification of Hagerstrand-type activity trajectories on the basis of both activity and spatial similarity. Such a classification can be used to group similar trajectories and to identify representative trajectories that are analogous to measures of central tendency in univariate statistics, giving more concrete meaning to the concept of the activity pattern than any other method now available. The paper illustrates the effect of considering both events and locations in the classification of daily activity patterns using activity diary data gathered in the town of Reading. The algorithm has been implemented in the Clustal_TXY alignment software package.

Ecological sustainability of the South Australian coastal aquaculture management policies

Coastal aquaculture in South Australia has been going through a period of unprecedented growth during the past seven years. The value of the South Australian aqua‐culture industry has increased from US$1.3 million in 1990–1991 to an estimated US$31 million in 1996–1997. This growth has led to the implementation of planning and management policies by the state government. South Australian coastal waters have been divided into regions, and regional aquaculture management plans have been prepared. These management policies have generated concerns among interest groups and the community. The recent coastal aquaculture planning and management policies are described and analyzed, focusing on their contribution to the development of an ecologically sustainable industry. The need for an integrated approach to management is emphasized, especially given the great interest of the state government on the development of the industry.     

Diatom stratigraphy and long-term dissolved silica concentrations in the Baltic Sea

In many parts of the world coastal waters with anthropogenic eutrophication have experienced a gradual depletion of dissolved silica (DSi) stocks. This could put pressure on spring bloom diatom populations, e.g. by limiting the intensity of blooms or by causing shifts in species composition. In addition, eutrophication driven enhanced diatom growth is responsible for the redistribution of DSi from the water phase to the sediments, and changes in the growth conditions may be reflected in the sediment diatom stratigraphy.To test for changes in diatom communities we have analyzed four sediment cores from the Baltic Sea covering approximately the last 100 years. The sediment cores originate from the western Gulf of Finland, the Kattegat, the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Riga. Three out of the four cores reveal only minor changes in composition of diatom assemblages, while the Gulf of Riga core contains major changes, occurring after the second World War. This area is set apart from the other Baltic Sea basins by a high frequency of low after spring bloom DSi concentrations (< 2 µmol L^− 1) during a relatively well defined time period from 1991–1998. In 1991 to 1993 a rapid decline of DSi spring concentrations and winter stocks (down to 5 µmol L^− 1) in the Gulf was preceded by exceptionally intense diatom spring blooms dominated by the heavily silicified species Thalassiosira baltica (1991–1992; up to 5.5 mg ww L^− 1). T. baltica has been the principal spring bloom diatom in the Gulf of Riga since records began in 1975. DSi consumption and biomass yield experiments with cultured T. baltica suggest that intense blooms can potentially exhaust the DSi stock of the water column and exceed the annual Si dissolution in the Gulf of Riga. The phytoplankton time series reveals another exceptional T. baltica bloom period in 1981–1983 (up to 8 mg L^− 1), which, however, took place before the regular DSi measurements. These periods may be reflected in the conspicuous accumulation of T. baltica frustules in the sediment core corresponding to ca. 1975–1985.     

Error and uncertainty in travel surveys

Transportation study home interview surveys normally underestimate the amount of trip-making by residents of a study area, and the data has to be adjusted subsequently to compensate for this effect. One important reason for the shortfall appears to be the incomplete recall and reporting of travel information by respondents. The paper examines the influence of the survey instrument on recall by comparing reported travel behaviour in two surveys conducted in the same town, one using a conventional travel diary and the other an activity diary. The latter format appears to encourage a more complete response, giving rise to significantly higher reported trip rates and travel times. The paper discusses some research and policy implications of this finding and concludes with tentative suggestions for improved travel survey instruments.     

Multimodal transport in the new millennium

Consignors of goods in international trade want their containers to move door to door whether by land, sea or air — smoothly, seamlessly and at predictable cost. What they actually get from the law is at best a jerky roller coaster: a series of contracts, one for each mode or stage of the journey, contracts with various people and with liability that varies too. All agree that the law should change but attempts to agree on an entirely new multimodal regime have failed. Recently attempts have been not to start again but to expand an existing and established regime. The latest of these, the UNCITRAL draft, is essentially maritime: it applies to the sea phase but and goes further to apply door to door except when its path is blocked by compulsory unimodal law. Has Venus at last arisen from the waves? And what will happen when Beauty meets the Beast in the form of CMR? This article addresses the problems that will be encountered by an ambitious amphibious instrument of this kind. — problems of integration, of compatibility with local legal culture, and of methodology.     

Past, present and future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is one of many aquatic ecosystems that show long-term declines in dissolved silicate (DSi) concentrations due to anthropogenic alteration of the biogeochemical Si cycle. Reductions in DSi in aquatic ecosystems have been coupled to hydrological regulation reducing inputs, but also with eutrophication, although the relative significance of both processes remains unknown for the observed reductions in DSi concentrations. Here we combine present and historical data on water column DSi concentrations, together with estimates of present river DSi loads to the Baltic, the load prior to damming together with estimates of the long-term accumulation of BSi in sediments. In addition, a model has been used to evaluate the past, present and future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea. The present day DSi load to the Baltic Sea is 855 ktons y^− 1. Hydrological regulation and eutrophication of inland waters can account for a reduction of 420 ktons y^− 1 less riverine DSi entering the Baltic Sea today. Using published data on basin-wide accumulation rates we estimate that 1074 ktons y^− 1 of biogenic silica (BSi) is accumulating in the sediments, which is 36% higher than earlier estimates from the literature (791 ktons y^− 1). The difference is largely due to the high reported sedimentation rates in the Bothnian Sea and the Bothnian Bay. Using river DSi loads and estimated BSi accumulation, our model was not able to estimate water column DSi concentrations as burial estimates exceeded DSi inputs. The model was then used to estimate the BSi burial from measured DSi concentrations and DSi load. The model estimate for the total burial of BSi in all three basins was 620 ktons y^− 1, 74% less than estimated from sedimentation rates and sediment BSi concentrations. The model predicted 20% less BSi accumulation in the Baltic Proper and 10% less in the Bothnian Bay than estimated, but with significantly less BSi accumulation in the Bothnian Sea by a factor of 3. The model suggests there is an overestimation of basin-wide sedimentation rates in the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea. In the Baltic Proper, modelling shows that historical DSi concentrations were 2.6 times higher at the turn of the last century (ca. 1900) than at present. Although the DSi decrease has leveled out and at present there are only restricted areas of the Baltic Sea with limiting DSi concentrations, further declines in DSi concentrations will lead to widespread DSi limitation of diatoms with severe implications for the food web.     

Cutting vehicle emissions with regenerative braking

This paper presents an analysis of vehicle regenerative braking systems as a quick and relatively easy means of achieving higher overall fuel efficiency and lowering carbon emissions. The system involves the installation of an additional electric motor/generator in parallel to the vehicle’s internal combustion engine and is used in conjunction with a DCDC converter and ultracapacitor. The system is used to recapture the energy lost in vehicle braking, significantly reducing a vehicle’s overall energy consumption and lowering vehicle emissions. Experimentally-based evidence is collected and compared for two sample vehicles to deduce the potential fuel and emissions saving.     

The significance and measurement of variability in travel behaviour

It is argued that an understanding of variability is central to the modelling of travel behaviour and the assessment of policy impacts, and is not the peripheral issue that it has often been considered. Drawing on recent studies in the UK and Australia, in conjunction with a review of the literature, the paper first examines the policy and analytical rationale for using multi-day data, then illustrates different ways of measuring variability, and finally discusses issues relating to the collection of suitable data for such analyses. In a policy context, there is a growing need for multi-day data to examine issues that affect general rather than one-day behaviour (e.g. to assess the distribution of user charges for road pricing, or patterns of public transport usage); while analytically, multi-day data is needed to improve our ability to identify the mechanisms behind travel behaviour and to derive better empirical relationships. Three measures of variability are presented: a graphical form showing daily differences in behaviour at the individual level; an aggregate, similarity index; and a hybrid graphical/numerical measure, which provides new insights into variability in daily patterns of behaviour. The paper raises a number of issues for debate, probably the most crucial of which is: variability in what? The way in which behaviour is measured crucially affects our conception of stability and variability.     

Recent progress on wave induced loading measurements in warships

Recent measurements of wave induced hull strain and flexure in RN warships are presented together with the derivation of the current design criteria for extreme hull girder bending loads. The history of the development of the shipboard instrumentation used is given and recent developments to improve the quality and ease of analysis of the data are described. An unexpectedly high transverse asymmetry in the longitudinal strains measured in destroyers is shown to be the result of a combination of vertical and lateral bending in oblique seas. Finally recent theoretical comparisons between the loading of Deep-Vee hulls and conventional UK rounded bilge hulls are presented which demonstrate the higher loading experienced by this type of hull form.     

Some issues of dynamics in forecasting travel behaviour — A discussion paper

In the next few years there is likely to be a large growth of interest in the dynamic modelling of travel behaviour. In order to try to avoid the eventual collapse of enthusiasm which has sometimes occurred with other new developments when they turn out not to provide transport planning with the hoped-for panacea, this paper aims to demonstrate the diversity of approaches which will be required to tackle the subject of dynamics. In particular, it identifies three overlapping but distinct levels at which dynamics interact with travel behaviour — microdynamics, which is concerned with the detailed scheduling of activities and travel within a day — macrodynamic modifiers, whereby changes in medium- and long-term behaviour which are often considered to be instantaneous are in fact subject to important phasing considerations — and macrodynamic processes, which deal with the overriding demographic processes of birth, ageing and death. The paper suggests approaches to the incorporation of these three topics into the forecasting of travel behaviour.