Some Difficulties inherent in applying Congestion Theory to Marine Problems

This paper sets out to evaluate the main areas of focus within maritime sociology and to link more closely than hitherto the various substantive discussions with general theoretical and conceptual approaches. More specifically, it suggests directions in which maritime sociology may be advanced at both empirical and conceptual levels in the future.     

Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

Error quantification of a high resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part3, validation with Continuous Plankton Recorder data

Data collected during the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has been used to validate a three-dimensional hydrodynamic ecosystem model simulation of the North-west European Shelf for the years 1988–89. The CPR time series is unique to the North Atlantic region as a validation tool. Data were extracted from the model to correspond with those collected by the CPR survey, and both the model and survey plankton data were standardised to allow the comparison of model biomass with survey counts. Simple linear regression and absolute error maps provide a qualitative evaluation of spatio-temporal model performance of simulated diatoms, flagellates, total phytoplankton and omnivorous mesozooplankton. Comparisons of z-scores indicate that the model reproduces the main pelagic seasonal features, and there is good correlation between magnitudes of these features with respect to standard deviations from a long-term mean. The model is replicating up to 62% of the mesozooplankton seasonality across the domain, with variable results for the phytoplankton. There are, however, differences in the timing of patterns in plankton seasonality. The validation exercise has highlighted that the spring diatom bloom in the model is too early, suggesting the need to reparameterise the response of phytoplankton to changing light levels in the model. Errors in the north and west of the domain imply that model turbulence and vertical density structure need to be improved to more accurately capture plankton dynamics.     

Assimilation of sea surface temperature in the POL Coastal Ocean Modelling System

A one-dimensional scheme is used to assimilate satellite Sea Surface Temperature data into the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System, set up in the Irish Sea with a fine resolution ( 1.8 km). The capabilities of the assimilation scheme are investigated using two different sets of satellite data, of lower and similar resolution to that of the model respectively. Comparison of results with independent data show that assimilation improves the modelled Sea Surface Temperature, but does not address model representation of the temperature vertical structure. It is concluded that for the Irish Sea and at the scales resolved by the model, the assimilation problem cannot be approached in a one-dimensional framework. It is also pointed out that forecast error needs to account explicitly for errors in the representation of the vertical structure of the thermal field.Three-dimensional methods that are suited for coastal systems are then suggested.     

Modelling the hydrodynamics and ecosystem of the North-West European continental shelf for operational oceanography

This paper outlines an approach to complex spatio-temporal marine ecosystem modelling as applied to the North Western European Continental Shelf. The model presented here combines an eddy-permitting (approximately 6 km horizontal resolution) baroclinic model, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS), with the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). This has been run within an operational framework using operationally available high resolution atmospheric and lateral boundary forcing, allowing hindcast and near-real time nowcast simulations to be performed. The modelled surface temperature and chlorophyll distributions are presented, and interannual variations discussed. Validation of both the physical and ecosystem submodels show the system to be effective, whilst highlighting areas where improvements in the system can be made. Distinct regional differences in predictive skill are shown. The system presented is ready for operational implementation to provide products and services for use both scientifically and in coastal zone and shelf seas management activities. A programme of work to update the system is already in place.