An assessment of advanced transport telematics evaluation procedures

This paper reviews and critically assesses procedures which have been adopted to evaluate Advanced Transport Telematics (ATT) projects. The importance of such a review at this juncture stems from the changing position of ATT in transport planning. ATT is no longer simply a field for experimentation, where technical feasibility and user acceptance are dominant concerns. Rather it is a potential mainstream contributor to the functioning of road transport systems. For this reason, ATT project appraisal needs to be developed to the same form, level of sophistication and consistency as the appraisal of conventional transport infrastructure investment. Based on the review set out here, we argue that appropriate methods have not yet been established which, in turn, poses a number of challenging questions, since current socio‐economic evaluation procedures are not directly suited to either measuring or evaluating many of the impacts which ATT schemes are implemented to achieve.     

Scenario construction for transport planning

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.     

Economic appraisal of European transport projects: The state-of-the-art revisited

Substantial investment has been made at national and European level in transport infrastructure over the past 50 years and is likely to continue in the future. The need to appraise transport projects in economic and social terms has developed alongside this in both scope and complexity. The state-of-the-art in the economic appraisal of transport projects is reviewed, progress is assessed and future challenges are identified. The review addresses the general framework, treatment of major impacts, presentation of outputs and issues such as uncertainty. It draws on national practice in Western European countries, which varies substantially reflecting a range of cultural and economic differences. Some points of commonality exist and the principle of monetizing direct transport impacts is generally accepted. Progress has been made towards the measurement of environmental impacts, but the assessment of the wider impacts remains under-developed. Increased sophistication and complexity has brought increasing data and presentation requirements, where computerized decision support methods have potential. Many challenges exist for the future of appraisal and the review is concluded with a discussion of some key issues. At the heart of these is the continuing debate over the relative roles of national and European government in decision-making and resource allocation.     

Road pricing—some of the more neglected theoretical and policy implications

The intention of this paper has been to raise some doubts about the extent to which the control of congestion is understood, not as an engineering problem, but as a socio‐economic one concerned with making the most appropriate use of scarce resources.

Despite some doubts, it seems that the basic theory, as applied to a highly simplified situation, is technically correct. What is much less clear, however, is the extent to which the acceptance of this analysis as a basis for policy making in the real world is justified. Even if, qualitatively, its implications are correct, there are significant quantitative uncertainties. Given that governments, local and national, are still pouring considerable sums of money, both through subsidies and investment, into the relief of congestion, it is desirable to change this state of affairs. There seems to be ample scope for the transport economist, the transport planner and the transport engineer to contribute to a debate which has a long and, in places, distinguished pedigree, but where the outcome is as yet considerably outstripped by the importance and complexity of the problems which must be solved.

     

The structure of the solution set to network optimisation problems

This paper argues that both heuristic and non-heuristic algorithms for the road network optimisation problem would benefit from a greater understanding of the structure of the set of feasible solutions to such problems. In order to provide this, a comparative study of a number of spatial combinatorial problems was undertaken. The results show that the road network optimisation problem is rich in good sub-optimal solutions. The implications of this finding for the development of optimising and heuristic algorithms are discussed, and some suggestions made as to where future research on network optimisation problems could most fruitfully be directed.