特大城市交通出行预测:中国面临的挑战与机遇

作为城市交通规划的一个重要组成部分,城市交通出行预测的发展已经走过了60年。最初的研究工作于20世纪50年代在北美展开,随后延伸到欧洲、澳大利亚、新西兰和南美洲以及中国等发展中国家。作为一个相对成熟的领域,交通规划依然包含着许多新的研究方向,同时专业人员在正确合理的使用商业软件方面还有一定的困难。中国正在经历高速的城市化进程,这意味着对道路、公交系统,机场以及城际间高速公路建设有大量的投资。合理的投资决策需要对未来中国交通拥挤的都市进行出行预测。为了更好的了解中国交通出行预测的发展现状,笔者和几个大城市的交通规划部门以及大学的相关院系进行了探讨和交流。此文的初衷是记录下从会谈中所获得的有普遍意义的发现与印象,以及提供给参加讨论者的意见。     

城市物流功能与经济的耦合机制研究

为了定量分析沧州市物流功能与经济发展的耦合协调水平,论文基于沧州市2007—2018年的数据,分析了城市物流功能与经济的相互作用机理,对二者的有序性、有序性弹性和耦合协调性进行测度,以沧州市为例进行实证分析。结果显示两个子系统的有序性、耦合协调性均呈提升趋势,耦合协调水平从2007年的严重不协调提升至2018年的勉强协调阶段。经济子系统弹性系数高于城市物流功能子系统的弹性系数,未来需加强子系统的联系与合作,推动子系统的耦合协调发展。     

A note on trip matrix estimation from link traffic count data

In this note, a simple network equilibrium based approach for estimating a trip matrix using link traffic count data is proposed. In essence a combined distribution and assignment model is formulated in which the link flow data serve to furnish an estimate for the sum of the integrals of the link cost functions. A comparison of this model with others proposed previously is made.     

Comparison of car ownership models

Car ownership models found in the academic literature (with a focus on the recent literature and on models developed for transport planning) are classified into a number of model types. The different model types are compared on a number of criteria: inclusion of demand and supply side of the car market, level of aggregation, dynamic or static model, long‐ or short‐run forecasts, theoretical background, inclusion of car use, data requirements, treatment of business cars, car‐type segmentation, inclusion of income, of fixed and/or variable car cost, of car quality aspects, of licence holding, of sociodemographic variables and of attitudinal variables, and treatment of scrappage.     

Introduction

The papers in this special issue on transportation network design were first presented at a workshop held at the University of Illinois in September 1977 under the auspices of the Mathematical Social Science Board with the support of the National Science Foundation. The participants in the workshop included most of the leading research workers on formal models of transportation network design. The extensive discussions of the papers that ensued during the two-day workshop led to several suggestions that may be useful in stimulating new research directions and increased research activity on design models.     

Modeling residential location choice in relation to housing location and road tolls on congested urban highway networks

We present a reformulation of the residential location submodel of the Integrated Model of Residential and Employment Location as a network equilibrium problem, thereby making travel costs by auto endogenous. The location of housing supply is examined as a welfare maximization problem for both user-optimal and system-optimal travel costs using concepts of bilevel programming. Finally, we briefly discuss how the employment submodel can be reformulated, and the entire model solved as a variational inequality problem.     

Assessment of economic impacts from unexpected events with an interregional commodity flow and multimodal transportation network model

Loss and damage caused by unscheduled events, especially earthquakes, have sudden and significant impacts not only on the region’s economy where the event occurs but also on other regions. The New Madrid Seismic Zone, located in the center of the United States, could have great impacts on economic activities related to this area, if a major earthquake occurred. Based on the 1993 US Commodity Flow Survey [US Commodity Flow Survey, 1993. Available from: <http://www.bts.gov/ntda/cfs/prod.html>], more than 42% of total commodity flows in the US are related to the greater Midwest, which includes the New Madrid Seismic Zone. If a catastrophic earthquake occurred in this area, the indirect damages could spread far beyond the region, and could have sizable impacts on other regions. A model of interregional commodity flows, incorporating regional input–output relationships, and the corresponding transportation network flows, was applied to assess the economic impacts of such an unexpected event. The economic impacts from the event are described for three hypothetical scenarios, analyzing the magnitude and the extent of the direct and indirect impacts. These analytical results may be used to propose strategic management of the recovery and reconstruction efforts after the event.     

Solutions to the optimal network design problem with shipments related to transportation cost

Two versions of an optimal network design problem with shipments proportional to transportation costs are formulated. Extensions of an algorithm developed in prior research for solving these problems are proposed and tested. The performance of the algorithms is found to improve substantially as the dependence of shipments on costs is increased. Moreover, the optimal solutions obtained are unexpectedly robust with respect to a wide range of transportation cost assumptions. These findings could have important computational and policy implications if applicable to larger networks.     

快速经济的电力采用煤气和蒸汽高效发电的复合循环发电站

复合循环发电站在二十世纪九十年代都是矿石燃料发电站，丽在新千年的早期它将占据主导地位。它们代替了大型的蒸汽轮机发电站，而蒸汽轮机发电站从二十世纪五十年代到八十年代都是主要的矿石燃料发电站。复合循环发电站的出现是在二十世纪五十年代中期，到二十世纪九十年代早期它们因自身的高能力和高效率燃气轮机盛行起来.     

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虽然多数先进技术应用的目的是改善路网的运行效率和安全性,但目前为止其在提高道路安全性方面的作用并不突出. 例如,可以提供大容量、多方面信息的可变信息板,其设立之初的唯一目的是引导驾驶员的道路行驶. 事实上,这种信息传达装置在不发布路段行驶信息的情况下,还可以发布交通安全信息以改善交通安全状况. 本文选取两种禁止超速信息为研究对象,分析了该信息的发布对于驾驶员态度和路段行驶车速的影响. 对近100名驾驶员进行抽样调查. 测试路段为加拿大埃德蒙顿市和卡尔加里市间2号高速公路. 研究结果表明,本文所选取的两种禁止超速标识对驾驶员态度和行驶车速产生的影响相对较小.