How do local actions affect VMT? A critical review of the empirical evidence

In this paper, we present a discussion of the challenges for research on the topic of vehicle miles traveled. We then summarize and critique evidence from the US on the association between 14 distinct factors and vehicle miles traveled. Our results quantify how much vehicle miles traveled can be expected to change in response to changes in policy or land use factors, including residential density and land use mix, as well as specific transport policies and programs such as transit improvements, road pricing, and programs aimed at changing people’s travel choices. Overall, though individual studies differ as to exact effect sizes, it is clear that local-level policymakers can take actions that are likely to affect vehicle miles traveled. However, we highlight gaps in the knowledge base at a time when decision makers at the local level are being increasingly called upon to take action to reduce vehicle miles traveled. Variation in effect size based on local context or interaction with related policies and programs has been left largely unexplored. In addition, experimental research designs that can identify causal direction are rare, and appropriate data that quantifies vehicle miles traveled are often lacking.     

Feasibility of estimating travel demand using geolocations of social media data

Transportation - Travel demand estimation, as represented by an origin–destination (OD) matrix, is essential for urban planning and management. Compared to data typically used in travel...     

Analysis and optimisation of objective vehicle dynamics testing in winter conditions

Objective testing of vehicle handling in winter conditions has not been implemented yet because of its low repeatability and its low signal-to-noise ratio. Enabling this testing, by identifying robust manoeuvres and metrics, was the aim of this study. This has been achieved by using both experimental data, gathered with steering-robot tests on ice, and simulation models of different complexities. Simple bicycle models with brush and MF-tyre models were built, both optimally parameterised against the experimental data. The brush model presented a better balance in complexity performance. This model was also implemented in a Kalman filter to reduce measurement noise; however, a simpler low-pass filter showed almost similar results at lower cost. A more advanced full vehicle model was built in VI-CarRealTime, based on kinematics and compliance data, damper measurements, and real tyre measurements in winter conditions. This model offered better results and was therefore chosen to optimise the initial manoeuvres through test design and simulations. A sensitivity analysis (ANOVA) of the experimental data allowed one to classify the robustness of the metrics. Finally, to validate the results, the proposed and the initial manoeuvres were tested back to back in a new winter campaign.     

Understanding the role of the forecast-maker in overestimation forecasts of policy impacts: The case of Travel Demand Management policies

Forecasting the impacts of a proposed policy is an important component of the transportation planning and decision making process. Although scientific tools are often used in transportation forecasts, biases and, more specifically, overestimations of the expected impact are often observed. This study explores the correlations between forecast-maker’s characteristics and forecast bias creation and reduction. The study examines two transport-related policies aiming at the reduction of car use: telecommuting and carsharing. Both are Travel Demand Management (TDM) policies, which attract much attention from transport experts. We tested the extent to which the forecast-maker’s beliefs about the policy at stake affected the forecast bias. We found that attitudes and beliefs associates not only with overestimation bias but also with its reduction over time. We also tested the extent to which the forecast-maker’s affiliation, the performing institute and the publication type were correlated with the biases of the forecast and with the forecaster attitudes and beliefs. These characteristics are intuitively used by the forecast user as tools to assess the ‘objectivity’ of the forecast, but our analysis found no association between these characteristics and the forecast bias.