An aggregate demand model for intercity passenger travel in Sri Lanka

Inspite of the inherent weaknesses in aggregate demand models, they continue to be used in everyday applications, especially in developing countries. The largely data intensive disaggregate model preclude its application in many cases. This paper attempts the formulation and calibration of an aggregate total demand model for estimating inter-district passenger travel by public transport in Sri Lanka. In its process, an investigation is made of the common problems in the aggregate approach while examining possible remedial measures to improve the accuracy and (hence) the usability of the aggregate model. It is argued that commonly used variables and functional forms are inappropriate for making accurate estimates in developing countries. Consequently, the model calibration is shown to incorporate variables representing urbanisation, under-development, transfers, a mode-abstract cost function and intrinsic features. The necessity for functional form for each variable to be based on behavioral assumptions that are tested using the Box-Cox transformation for ensuring the best fit of the data is also observed. Although, the model form was calibrated for Sri Lanka, the model is generalised in order for its applications to other countries as well as, both, inter-district and intercity travel demand estimation.     

Lessons in ownership, regulation and management from 100 years of bus transport in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka observes 100 years of bus passenger transport in 2007. During this period the country has seen different forms of service providers ranging from private sector monopolies to state sector monopolies. It also has seen several changes in state policy ranging from welfare orientated service provision to entire market determined without any regulation. The existing regulated mixed competition is also characterized by poorly equipped regulators. In conclusion, the paper traces the different stages of failure that have led to the poor quality of bus transport services existing at present.     

Modeling the flow regime near the source in underwater gas releases

Recent progress in calculating gas bubble sizes in a plume, based on phenomenological approaches using the release conditions is a significant improvement to make the gas plume models self-reliant. Such calculations require details of conditions Near the Source of Plume (NSP); (i.e. the plume/jet velocity and radius near the source), which inspired the present work. Determining NSP conditions for gas plumes are far more complex than that for oil plumes due to the substantial density difference between gas and water. To calculate NSP conditions, modeling the early stage of the plume is important. A novel method of modeling the early stage of an underwater gas release is presented here. Major impact of the present work is to define the correct NSP conditions for underwater gas releases, which is not possible with available methods as those techniques are not based on the physics of flow region near the source of the plume/jet. We introduce super Gaussian profiles to model the density and velocity variations of the early stages of plume, coupled with the laws of fluid mechanics to define profile parameters. This new approach, models the velocity profile variation from near uniform, across the section at the release point to Gaussian some distance away. The comparisons show that experimental data agrees well with the computations.