Robust network pricing and system optimization under combined long-term stochasticity and elasticity of travel demand

Network pricing serves as an instrument for congestion management, however, agencies and planners often encounter problems of estimating appropriate toll prices. Tolls are commonly estimated for a single-point deterministic travel demand, which may lead to imperfect policy decisions due to inherent uncertainties in future travel demand. Previous research has addressed the issue of demand uncertainty in the pricing context, but the elastic nature of demand along with its uncertainty has not been explicitly considered. Similarly, interactions between elasticity and uncertainty of demand have not been characterized. This study addresses these gaps and proposes a framework to estimate nearest optimal first-best tolls under long-term stochasticity in elastic demand. We show first that the optimal tolls under the deterministic-elastic and stochastic-elastic demand cases coincide when cost and demand functions are linear, and the set of equilibrium paths is constant. These assumptions are restrictive, so three larger networks are considered numerically, and the subsequent pricing decisions are assessed. The results of the numerical experiments suggest that in many cases, optimal pricing decisions under the combined stochastic-elastic demand scenario resemble those when demand is known exactly. The applications in this study thus suggest that inclusion of demand elasticity offsets the need of considering future demand uncertainties for first-best congestion pricing frameworks.     

Motorcycle fatalities in Malaysia

Malaysia has the highest road fatality risk (per 100,000 population) among the ASEAN countries and more than 50% of the road accident fatalities involve motorcyclists. This study has collected and analysed data from the police, government authorities, and national and international research institutes. Only fatality data are used due to the severe underreporting of severe injuries (up to 600%) and slight injuries (up to 1400%). The analysis reveals that the highest numbers of motorcycle fatalities occur in rural locations (61%), on primary roads (62%) and on straight road sections (66%). The majority are riders (89%), 16 to 20 years old (22.5%), and 90% of the motorcycles are privately owned. Of those involved in fatal accidents, 75% of the motorcyclists wear helmets, and 35% do not have proper licences. The highest number of fatalities by type of collision is ‘angular or side’ (27.5%). Although fatal motorcyclist crashes mostly involve ‘passenger cars’ (28%), motorcyclists are responsible for 50% of the collisions either by crashing singly (25%) or with other motorcyclists (25%). While male motorcyclists predominate (94% of fatalities), female motorcyclists aged 31 to 70, possessing ‘no licence’, not wearing helmets and travelling during the day, account for a higher percentage than male motorcyclists. Malaysia must acquire more motorcycle exposure data and establish an injury recording system and database based on hospital-records. To reduce motorcycle fatalities, it first has to understand why young male motorcyclists are prone to fatal crashes in the evenings and on weekends on rural primary roads, especially on straight road sections.     

Experimental Study on Volume Change Indices of Bentonite Soils

Introduction Bentonites are used as barrier and backfillingmaterials in many countries for storing the high leveltoxic wastes[1-4]. The clays have several advantageousproperties with regard to the hydro-mechanical re-quirements; for exmple, low permeability, highswelling capability and good thermal conductivity aresome of the features. Determination of swelling prop-erties of bentonites is important and has been carriedout by many researchers[5,6]The volume change behavior of bentonites ispri…     

The relationship between urban street networks and private motorized trips at the city level

There are factors that impact car usage in urban areas, such as density, diversity and design, but there have been few studies that examine the relationship between street network factors and car usage at the city level (macro level). This paper focuses on this relationship by introducing urban street network variables, such as blocks per area, nodes per block and length of roads and motorways, as independent variables and the percentage of daily trips by private motorized modes as the dependent variable. The street network in this study includes interconnecting lines and points that present streets, roads, motorways, intersections and blocks. The strength of the relationship in this study is found using multiple linear regression. The findings of this research indicate that an increase in car usage is correlated with an increasing number of blocks per area, number of nodes per block and length of motorways. In addition, because the urban street network is the result of macro-scale planning decisions, considering this relationship can lead to better planning decisions.     

尼泊尔喜马拉雅地区塔玛科什3级水电工程——穿越软弱构造片岩修建隧洞所面临的挑战

由于尼泊尔喜马拉雅地区岩石强度较低,水平应力较高,因此在该软弱构造片岩带中开挖隧洞具有较大的挑战性.文章主要阐述装机容量为650 kW的塔玛科什3级水电工程17km长大跨度隧洞和大型地下发电厂房(这两项工程计划穿越夹杂有软弱构造片岩带的坚硬眼球状片麻岩区域)所面临的重大技术挑战.穿过片岩带开挖的隧洞长度约占总长的15％,由于此岩层带岩石强度较低,具有剪切特性和渗流现象,且水平应力较高,围岩挤压和隧洞塌方都是可预期的问题,因此该工程地下开挖主要关注的问题是大尺寸隧洞的可施工性和工期.为了解决可预期问题,进行了更进一步的研究,主要集中在隧洞最大可建尺寸、方位、减少围岩挤压的开挖方法,以及地下发电厂房稳定性和合理岩石支护设计上.研究发现,在构造片岩带中可施工的全断面隧洞最大尺寸可达9m,为改进的马蹄形(有弧形仰拱).通过对隧洞三种不同方位方案(即正交、斜交、平行)的分析发现,与叶理面正交的方案最佳,可减少围岩挤压近50％.     

铁路行车事故救援理论与技术体系探讨

目前对铁路行车事故救援的研究众多，但均停留于救援装备、事故分析、技术方法的层面上。而未能从系统机理、救援原理、体系结构的角度对其研究内容及研究框架予以界定。针对上述问题，本文沿着救援体系规划、救援管理、救援实施这一纵向思维轴，系统地构建了铁路行车事故救援的研究体系，并将其划分为理论体系、技术体系及管理实施体系，并在此基础上对各子体系间相互关系及各体系的具体研究内容与框架结构进行了分析确定，从而从空间架构上形成铁路行车事故救援研究体系。该体系的建立为我国铁路现场事故救援体系的规划、设计、管理与实施提供参考与依据。     

LARGE SIGNAL DISCRETE-TIME MODEL FOR PARALLELED BUCK CONVERTERS

Introduction　　 In recent years,due to the rapid advances ofcomputer and communication,the power suppliesmust provide high current up to hundreds of am-peres and still have high efficiency and reliability.Under such requirements,multimodule- parallelingstructure is usually used and the load current isequally shared. The practical implementation ofthese distributed converters system is not alwaysstraightforward and various control problems arisebecause of undesirable interaction among subsys-t…     

Reducing the probability of ship grounding: which measure to undertake?

The analytic hierarchy process has been used to elicit the knowledge of maritime transport stakeholders, such as seafarers, authorities, insurers and academics, regarding human factors and risk-reducing measures for ship groundings. Measures against human fatigue, alcohol abuse, language barriers, poor bridge management and safety climate have been compared with regard to costs and benefits. The measures are discussed in the context of large ships on a voyage of at least 24 h containing Bridge Resource Management. The study shows that stakeholders consider the costs of the measures to reduce human fatigue at sea surpass the benefits. Measures against alcohol abuse are regarded as the most cost–benefit efficient. Also, the stakeholders consider the watch scheme 8–4–4–8 to be less fatiguing than the 12–12 watch scheme. In addition, the results of the study support previous findings that inadequate manning levels contribute the most to human fatigue within the bridge management team.     

Common patterns in aggregated accident analysis charts from human fatigue-related groundings and collisions at sea

Research has shown that there are potentially disastrous outcomes of human fatigue at sea. The conditions in which the seafarers have to operate are becoming more and more demanding. The study in this article attempts to aggregate accident charts derived from in-depth studies of human fatigue-related accidents to determine common patterns of interlinked fatigue factors. The accidents are analyzed by means of the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), which in the article has been modified for maritime accidents. The main fatigue factors identified are ‘shift work’, ‘irregular working hours’, ‘inadequate task allocation’, and ‘excessive demands’. The study reveals several differences between ship collision and grounding accidents and their corresponding fatigue factors. Human fatigue-related collision accidents are characterized by wrong/badly timed decisions, misconceptions, and poor communication between the vessels. Right before the collision the crew is often panicking and mistakes are easily made. In human fatigue-related groundings, the conditions are often monotonous and the navigating officer has either overlooked the upcoming seabed or simply fallen asleep. Safety climate issues are also identified as important contributors to human fatigue.     

渔船非线性横摇理论研究分析

为讨论船舶在波浪中的非线性横摇,应用非线性动力学的方法对现象进行理论分析,得到主共振情况下船舶运动稳态响应的解析解,并对实船进行稳定性分析。通过不同波浪条件下船舶非线性横摇运动的模拟计算,预报船舶在横浪中的横摇运动,预报结果与试验结果比较一致。