Large-scale application of MILATRAS: case study of the Toronto transit network

This paper documents the efforts to operationalize the conceptual framework of MIcrosimulation Learning-based Approach to TRansit Assignment (MILATRAS) and its component models of departure time and path choices. It presents a large-scale real-world application, namely the multi-modal transit network of Toronto which is operated by the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC). This large-scale network is represented by over 500 branches with more than 10,000 stops. About 332,000 passenger-agents are modelled to represent the demand for the TTC in the AM peak period. A learning-based departure time and path choice model was adopted using the concept of mental models for the modelling of the transit assignment problem. The choice model parameters were calibrated such that the entropy of the simulated route loads was optimized with reference to the observed route loads, and validated with individual choices. A Parallel Genetic Algorithm engine was used for the parameter calibration process. The modelled route loads, based on the calibrated parameters, greatly approximate the distribution underlying the observed loads. 75% of the exact sequence of transfer point choices were correctly predicted by the off-stop/on-stop choice mechanism. The model predictability of the exact sequence of route transfers was about 60%. In this application, transit passengers were assumed to plan their transit trip based on their experience with the transportation network; with no prior (or perfect) knowledge of service performance.     

Automated transit headway control via adaptive signal priority

This paper reports on a study that developed a next‐generation Transit Signal Priority (TSP) strategy, Adaptive TSP, that controls adaptively transit operations of high frequency routes using traffic signals, thus automating the operations control task and relieving transit agencies of this burden. The underlying algorithm is based on Reinforcement Learning (RL), an emerging Artificial Intelligence method. The developed RL agent is responsible for determining the best duration of each signal phase such that transit vehicles can recover to the scheduled headway taking into consideration practical phase length constraints. A case study was carried out by employing the microscopic traffic simulation software Paramics to simulate transit and traffic operations at one signalized intersection along the King Streetcar route in downtown Toronto. The results show that the control policy learned by the agent could effectively reduce the transit headway deviation and causes smaller disruption to cross street traffic compared with the existing unconditional transit signal priority algorithm.     

A GPS-aided survey for assessing trip reporting accuracy and travel of students without telephone land lines

A geo-positioning satellite (GPS)-based survey, using a web-based prompted recall tool, was conducted on a sample of 94 students at the University of Toronto from November 2008 to April 2009. The sample included students with and without telephone land lines, allowing for a statistical comparison of demographic and travel behaviour attributes. The same subjects simultaneously completed a traditional trip reporting survey, modelled on the household travel survey in Toronto, allowing for a comparison between the travel behaviour information obtained from the GPS and that reported by the participants in the traditional survey. Students with a land line are more likely to live in houses, with parents, and to live in suburban areas than students without a land line. They also make fewer trips in total, fewer discretionary trips, more transit and auto trips and fewer active trips than students without a land line. By comparing questionnaire-based data and GPS data, we found that most participants reported in the questionnaire either the same number of GPS-based trips or fewer. On average, the GPS survey captured 1.29 more daily trips per participant than the corresponding trips reported in the questionnaire.     

Investigating the effects of psychological factors on commuting mode choice behaviour

This paper utilizes socio-psychometric survey data to investigate the influence of attitudes, affective appraisal and habit formation on commuting mode choice. The data-set was collected in 2009–2010 in Edmonton, Alberta. In addition to conventional socio-economic, demographic and modal attributes, the survey gathered psychological information regarding habitual behaviour, affective appraisal and personal attitudes. Different psychometric tools were used to capture psychological factors affecting mode choice. Habitual behaviour was measured using Verplanken's response-frequency questionnaire. Affective appraisal was indirectly estimated using the Osgood's semantic differential. Five-point Likert scales were used to measure attitude. The structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used to investigate the effects of psychological factors on mode choice behaviour. SEM captures the latent nature of psychological factors and uses path diagrams to identify the directionality as well as intensity of the relationships. The investigation reveals that passengers have positive emotions towards their chosen mode. Further, evidence of the superiority of the car as a travel alternative was established in terms of strong habit towards it, such that passengers would use the car for almost every single trip.     

Improved modeling of park‐and‐ride transfer time: Capturing the within‐day dynamics

An important factor that affects park‐and‐ride demand is transfer time. However, conventional park‐and‐ride demand models treat transfer time as a single value, without considering the time‐of‐day effect. Since early comers usually occupy spots closer to the entrance, their transfer times are shorter. Hence, there is a relationship between arrival time and transfer time. To analyze this relationship, a micro‐simulation model is developed. The model simulates the queuing system at the entrance and the pattern that parking spots are occupied in the parking lot over time. As expected, the model output illustrates an increasing relationship between arrival time and transfer time. This relationship has significant implication in mode choice models because it means that the attractiveness of park‐and‐ride depends on the time of arrival at the park‐and‐ride lot. This model of park‐and‐ride transfer time can potentially improve travel demand forecasting, as well as facilitate the operation and design of park‐and‐ride facilities.     

Microscopic modeling of large‐scale pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in the city of Madinah,Saudi Arabia

This paper presents a micro‐simulation modeling framework for evaluating pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in crowded crossing areas. The framework adopts a simulation approach that models vehicles and pedestrians at the microscopic level while satisfying two sets of constraints: (1) flow constraints and (2) non‐collision constraints. Pedestrians move across two‐directional cells as opposed to one‐dimensional lanes as in the case of vehicles; therefore, extra caution is considered when modeling the shared space between vehicles and pedestrians. The framework is used to assess large‐scale pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in a highly congested ring road in the City of Madinah that carries 20 000 vehicles/hour and crossed by 140 000 pedestrians/hour after a major congregational prayer. The quantitative and visual results of the simulation exhibits serious conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles, resulting in considerable delays for pedestrians crossing the road (9 minutes average delay) and slow traffic conditions (average speed <10 km/hour). The model is then used to evaluate the following three mitigating strategies: (1) pedestrian‐only phase; (2) grade separation; and (3) pedestrian mall. A matrix of operational measures of effectiveness for network‐wide performance (e.g., average travel time, average speed) and for pedestrian‐specific performance (e.g., mean speed, mean density, mean delay, mean moving time) is used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed strategies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring the correlation between ride-hailing and multimodal transit ridership in toronto

Transportation - Ride-hailing (RH) services have been growing rapidly and gaining popularity worldwide. However, many transit agencies are experiencing ridership stagnation or even decline....     

Feasibility study of aerial ropeway transit in the Holy City of Makkah

The planning and implementation of a multimodal transportation system in the Holy City of Makkah to handle the huge volumes of pilgrims to the City is not a straightforward mission, as Makkah poses numerous challenges including its unique seasonal demand patterns, mountainous terrain, and limited space. Aerial ropeway transit (ART), a promising transport technology solution, could be an important component of this system. This paper presents the results of a technical and economic feasibility study to explore the potential of introducing ART service in Makkah. The study reveals that, overall, ART service on some corridors in Makkah is technically feasible, and with some necessary enforcement measures to attract ridership could become a profitable transportation investment. Specifically, the study recommends using ART for special user groups and service/emergency crews during peak seasons and opening ART to the public as a premium service during the off-peak season.     

大型国际活动交通组织规划方法综述

探讨夏季奥运会采用的交通组织规划方法,同时总结世界上最大规模的特殊活动——沙特阿拉伯麦加朝觐/副朝交通组织规划经验。每年一度的麦加朝觐已经延续几个世纪,在最近几十年人数持续增长,朝圣者已增至600万人,包括朝觐一周内300万人和斋月期间100万人。目前,这项活动是历史上规模最大且定期举行的特殊活动,其规模预计还将大幅增长。奥运会是世界上第二大特殊活动,每4年举办一次,在主办城市持续2周。通常奥运会主办城市自身的交通压力已经非常巨大,在奥运会期间同时还要额外满足4万名奥运官员和运动员以及800万名观众的出行需求。因此,奥运会交通组织规划对于保障赛事顺利开展至关重要。通过描述这两项活动的背景和交通供需特征,概述已有交通组织规划方法,旨在分析和总结大型活动交通组织规划的经验教训,探讨可供选择的规划策略。