GM(1,1)模型与指数模型在基桩沉降预测中的应用

以某大型基桩的沉降预测为例,利用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)与Aeax曲线模型进行基桩在外荷载作用下沉降量的预测。结果表明:两种模型对于呈指数变化规律的系统能获得较好的预测结果;两种模型对基桩累计沉降的预测符合工程实际,对各级荷载作用下的本级沉降预测不够合理。对两种模型关系的研究表明,两者有内在联系,都属指数曲线预测模型,且指数曲线Aeax预测模型比GM(1,1)模型应用起来更简单,方便。     

关于国际工程承包项目审计的探讨

近年来,我国铁路发展所取得的辉煌成就在国际上产生了重大影响,不少国家提出希望中国铁路参与其国内工程建设,使我国设计施工企业参加国际工程承包项目建设的机会越来越多。但在国际工程建设中,如何像国内建设项目一样进行审计和通过审计发现工程管理中存在的薄弱环节和问题,提出加强管理的建议,规范项目管理,降低项目成本,提高经济效益进行探讨。通过探讨提出审计可遵循的原则、审计依据、审计内容、审计方式和方法等,望能为提高审计工作水平提供借鉴。     

纤维沥青混凝土试验及应用

对国道106线衡水北段纤维沥青混凝土试验中所采用不同类型纤维及纤维用量的沥青混合料马歇尔试验结果进行研究,分析纤维对沥青混合料马歇尔试验结果的影响及原因,从中得出纤维沥青混合料马歇尔指标的变化规律,为纤维沥青混凝土路面结构的设计和施工提供参考依据,并为推广纤维沥青混凝土路面结构做出尝试。     

新罗海上军事力量与古代东北亚国际关系

新罗海上力量,在隋唐东征中兴起,参与了半岛统一的历史重任,使得东北亚地缘政治平衡得以重建,扭转了历史走向。新罗海上力量经历了8世纪的首度衰落之后,恰逢东亚各国中央集权的衰落,东北亚国际海面出现前所未有的乱象。张保皋海权活动填补海上权力的空白,促进了东北亚海上丝绸之路的新繁荣。张保皋的海权活动目的是促进国际和平往来,而非称雄争霸,日本也因此获取海上便利,而唐朝宽容默许张保皋的活动。张保皋发展海权的成果最终被扼杀了,以致东北亚的海上局面出现再次失序的苗头。在新罗结束期的乱局中半岛海上力量再次以相当规模出现。     

新型深水块石抛填和夯平一体化施工船研发应用

本文依托长江南槽一期深水航道整治工程,在深入研究现有块石水下抛填方法的基础上,研发了新型的开敞式深水快速高精度抛填和整平一体化新设备,对其可行性进行了多次测试试验,确定了装备的选型。并采用数值模拟、物模试验等结合的方法进行了结构的验算,确保设备的使用可靠性。该设备可以适应35m水深、2m/s流速,配有实时定位系统,可以实时采集抛填区域的施工效果,实现了抛填和夯平施工和质量检测一体化,通过施工数据分析,该设备达到了93%的抛填合格率,在精度提高至±20cm时合格率可达85%,整平精度可以达到5cm,创新了抛填施工的新装备,经鉴定,该装备达到了国际先进水平,可为类似设备建造选型提供借鉴。     

Benefit of speed reduction for ships in different weather conditions

Currently, the shipping industry is facing a great challenge of reducing emissions. Reducing ship speeds will reduce the emissions in the immediate future with no additional infrastructure. However, a detailed investigation is required to verify the claim that a 10% speed reduction would lead to 19% fuel savings (Faber et al., 2012).This paper investigates fuel savings due to speed reduction using detailed modeling of ship performance. Three container ships, two bulk carriers, and one tanker, representative of the shipping fleet, have been designed. Voyages have been simulated by modeling calm water resistance, wave resistance, propulsion efficiency, and engine limits. Six ships have been simulated in various weather conditions at different speeds. Potential fuel savings have been estimated for a range of speed reductions in realistic weather.It is concluded that the common assumption of cubic speed-power relation can cause a significant error in the estimation of bunker consumption. Simulations in different seasons have revealed that fuel savings due to speed reduction are highly weather dependent. Therefore, a simple way to include the effect of weather in shipping transport models has been proposed.Speed reduction can lead to an increase in the number of ships to fulfill the transport demand. Therefore, the emission reduction potential of speed reduction strategy, after accounting for the additional ships, has been studied. Surprisingly, when the speed is reduced by 30%, fuel savings vary from 2% to 45% depending on ship type, size and weather conditions. Fuel savings further reduce when the auxiliary engines are considered.     

The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE³M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.     

太阳能光伏电力系统在800PCC滚装船上的应用研究

为使船舶达到绿色、环保的要求,并解决能源紧缺问题,在船上广泛应用太阳能是一种有效途径。介绍太阳能在船上应用的现状和相关规范对太阳能在船上应用的规定。分析在800PCC滚装船上应用太阳能的优势,给出该船的基本参数和航线,结合这些基本信息分析该船太阳能光伏电力系统的结构和运行模式。通过研究总结出该船应用太阳能可带来能效指数提高的积极效应。     

港口腹地划分的两种新方法探讨--以大连国际航运中心为例

引入经济地理学的新理论成果———圈层结构法和点轴法,提出了圈层结构划分法和点轴结构划分法两种新的港口腹地划分方法,并应用这两种新方法对大连国际航运中心港口腹地范围的界定与划分进行实例分析。与以往的行政区划法、经济区域法等港口腹地划分方法相比,这两种方法更加注重对港口原有腹地的细分,更接近于港口腹地的实际状况,进而有利于港口企业的经营发展。     

提高国内航行船舶检验质量的措施与方法

国际海事公约是船舶检验工作的主要依据之一,本文介绍船舶法定检验质量管理体系的建立和运行,加强与港澳接轨,保障国内航行船舶检验质量的措施;提出进一步提高国内航行船舶法定检验质量的解决方法,以使国内航行船舶检验工作更好地向国际公约靠拢。