Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Development of Green-Naghdi models with a wave-absorbing beach for nonlinear, irregular wave propagation

Two-dimensional and three-dimensional Green-Naghdi (GN) models equipped with a numerical wave-absorbing beach have been developed to simulate nonlinear, regular, and irregular wave propagation. The numerical beach is introduced near the downstream boundary to absorb outgoing waves. An appropriate amount of numerical damping and an appropriate length of numerical beach are investigated using numerical experiments. The results show that the GN models with a numerical beach work very well in simulating wave propagation in water in a small computational domain.     

线控转向系统转角反步控制算法研究

为实现商用车线控转向,设计一套新的线控转向系统架构及其转角跟踪控制算法。新的线控转向系统采用丝杠螺母结构中的丝杠直接控制纵拉杆,螺母通过带轮机构被电机驱动。对线控转向系统结构进行运动学分析,推导转向系统可变传动比,采用前轮转角为状态变量,建立线控转向系统二阶动力学模型。基于转角跟踪目标,采用反步控制算法,设计线控转向系统转角跟踪控制器,通过反馈系统线性化处理系统参数不确定和环境干扰问题,实现准确的目标转角跟踪,并建立李雅普诺夫函数,证明了采用反步控制的线控转向系统是渐进稳定的。搭建采用“丝杠螺母+带轮机构”架构的线控转向实车底盘测试台架,选取蛇形和混合工况进行控制算法验证。研究结果表明：与滑模控制算法的测试结果对比可知,反步控制算法绝对平均跟踪误差值降低了71.88%~79.57%,跟踪误差标准偏差值降低了71.32%~78.50%;线控转向系统反步控制转角跟踪算法能够减少系统收敛到原点的时间,抑制系统的抖振,提高车辆线控转向系统转角跟踪的操纵灵活性。     

路段动态特征中的交通组成因素研究

基于对交通流建模过程中将车型单一考虑为标准小汽车,忽略了现实交通量中车型的不同构成,本文通过对不同车型的动力特性进行标定,将其特性反映在跟车模型与车道变换模型中,并且利用交通仿真技术,分析了交通量构成对路段行程时间、车速、延误等动态特性指标的影响。     

双速搅拌工艺

根据传统二次搅拌理论,提出了混凝土双速搅拌工艺,介绍了双速搅拌工艺的原理及优点,并指出了该工艺的实现方案.该工艺的应用可降低生产成本,提高混凝土的强度和生产率.     

Influential vectors in fuel consumption by an urban bus operator: Bus route,driver behavior or vehicle type?

Energy costs account for an important share of the total costs of urban and suburban bus operators. The purpose of this paper is to expand empirical research on bus transit operation costs and identify the key factors that influence bus energy efficiency of the overall bus fleet of one operator and aid to the management of its resources.We estimate a set of multivariate regression models, using cross-section dataset of 488 bus drivers operating over 92 days in 2010, in 87 routes with different bus typologies, of a transit company operating in the Lisbon’s Metropolitan Area (LMA), Rodoviária de Lisboa, S.A.Our results confirm the existence of influential variables regarding energy efficiency and these are mainly: vehicle type, commercial speed, road grades over 5% and bus routes; and to a lesser extent driving events such as: sudden longitudinal decelerations and excessive engine rotation. The methodology proved to be useful for the bus operator as a decision-support tool for efficiency optimization purpose at the company level.     

车务可视化信息系统设计与实现

车务可视化信息系统通过三维模型及虚拟漫游的展现形式,将铁路运行及运营的动态信息进行集成和柔性展示,实现旅客服务信息及运输管理相关数据的整合,通过可视化的展现方式既方便旅客及管理人员,又充分展示铁路信息化建设的成果。     

Modeling the impacts of mandatory and discretionary lane-changing maneuvers

In this paper, a novel mesoscopic multilane model is proposed to enable simultaneous simulation of mandatory and discretionary lane-changing behaviors to realistically capture multilane traffic dynamics. The model considers lane specific fundamental diagrams to simulate dynamic heterogeneous lane flow distributions on expressways. Moreover, different priority levels are identified according to different lane-changing motivations and the corresponding levels of urgency. Then, an algorithm is proposed to estimate the dynamic mandatory and discretionary lane-changing demands. Finally, the lane flow propagation is defined by the reaction law of the demand–supply functions, which can be regarded as an extension of the Incremental-Transfer and/or Priority Incremental-Transfer principles. The proposed mesoscopic multilane cell transmission model is calibrated and validated on a complex weaving section of the State Route 241 freeway in Orange County, California, showing both the positive and negative impact of lane changing maneuvers, e.g., balancing effect and capacity drop, respectively. Moreover, the empirical study verifies that the model requires no additional data other than the cell transmission model does. Thus, the proposed model can be deployed as a simple simulation tool for accessing dynamic mesoscopic multilane traffic state from data available to most management centers, and also the potential application in predicting the impact of traffic incident or lane control strategy.     

Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes for uncertainty modeling in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data

Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle devices). Despite its rather wide spatial coverage, crowdsourced speed data also brings very important challenges, such as the highly variable measurement noise in the data due to a variety of driving behaviors and sample sizes. When not properly accounted for, this noise can severely compromise any application that relies on accurate traffic data. In this article, we propose the use of heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGP) to model the time-varying uncertainty in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data. Furthermore, we develop a HGP conditioned on sample size and traffic regime (SSRC-HGP), which makes use of sample size information (probe vehicles per minute) as well as previous observed speeds, in order to more accurately model the uncertainty in observed speeds. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic data from Copenhagen, we empirically show that the proposed heteroscedastic models produce significantly better predictive distributions when compared to current state-of-the-art methods for both speed imputation and short-term forecasting tasks.     

设备拥有量模型的研究

通过对设备完好率、设备出勤台数和设备拥有量三者之间的关系进行深入的分析,找出三者之间的单值对应关系,采用线性回归、最优化理论、曲面拟合等数学方法并结合计算机软件建立设备拥有量的计算模型,并对此模型进行更深入的分析,建立其分段模型,从而保证了模型的计算精度,为企业的设备投资提供科学的准确的定量分析依据。