Time taken for residents to adopt a new public transport service: examining heterogeneity through duration modelling

When a new public transport service is introduced it would be valuable for public authorities, financing organisations and transport operators to know how long it will take for people to start to use the service and what factors influence this. This paper presents results from research analysing the time taken for residents living close to a new guided bus service to start to use (or adopt) the service. Data was obtained from a sample of residents on whether they used the new service and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modelling has been used to analyse how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine what factors influence this. It is found that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. Allowance for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service was tested using a split population model (SPD) model. The SPD model indicates that 36% of residents will never use the new service and is informative in differentiating factors that influence whether Route 20 is used and when it is used.

奥迪轿车组合仪表在改进型“红旗”牌轿车上的应用

介绍了奥迪１００型轿车组合仪表的基本结构和工作原理以及主要技术参数，在消化理解国外汽车组合仪表先进技术的同时，利用奥迪１００型轿车组合仪表和比较成熟的电子技术，改制成了“红旗”牌轿车用的组合仪表，使改进型“红旗”牌轿车组合仪表电性能指标和结构性能指标达到８０年代中期国外先进汽车组合仪表的水平。     

A week in the life of baby boomers: how do they see the spatial–temporal organization of their activities and travel?

In this paper, we take an initial look at the spatial and temporal flexibility in the activity patterns of the so-called “baby-boomer” cohort (born 1947–1966) in comparison with younger and older adults. Using a unique longitudinal survey carried in Quebec City from 2002 to 2005, we explore activity patterns and trip rates over a seven-day observation period during the first wave, and take a first look at some aspects of their evolution over two subsequent waves at about one-year intervals. We model the propensity to undertake activities within selected conventional non-work classifications such as “shopping” and “leisure”, and also according to respondents’ own perceptions of the spatial and temporal flexibility of each out-of-home activity that they had executed. While we cannot strictly separate cohort effects from age-related effects, after controlling for gender and household structure, we infer that age and related lifestyle effects dominate in explaining these propensities. However, the boomers were the only age stratum to increase their total out-of-home activity participation over the course of the panel, an intriguing starting point for the future study of this cohort.

Measuring the effect of low-cost carriers on regional airports' commercial revenue

This paper measures the effect of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on British regional airports' commercial revenue using panel data analysis. The evidence shows that although LCCs have significant impact on airports' commercial revenue, their contribution is smaller compared to other carriers. The empirical results indicate that holding other variables constant, on average, each additional LCC passenger boosts airport commercial revenue by £2.87, while each additional other carrier passenger raises commercial revenue by £5.59. These results are relatively stable across different models. The findings have important policy implications for aviation strategy at the regional level and beyond.     

轿车车身结构修改灵敏度分析

建立某国产普通轿车白车身的有限元模型,预测分析其静态弯曲特性和扭转特性,在此基础上对白车身各部件刚度和强度的灵敏度进行分析,并将分析结果应用于板厚优化。优化结果表明:通过对灵敏部件的板厚修改,白车身的强度和刚度性能得到显著提高,为车身的优化设计提供参考。     

Exploring the role of social capital influence variables on travel behaviour

This paper explores the potential role of individual trip characteristics and social capital network variables in the choice of transport mode. A sample of around 100 individuals living or working in one suburb of Madrid (i.e. Las Rosas district of Madrid) participated in a smartphone short panel survey, entering travel data for an entire working week. A Mixed Logit model was estimated with this data to analyze shifts to metro as a consequence of the opening of two new stations in the area. Apart from classical explanatory variables, such as travel time and cost, gender, license and car ownership, the model incorporated two “social capital network” variables: participation in voluntary activities and receiving help for various tasks (i.e. child care, housekeeping, etc.). Both variables improved the capacity of the model to explain transport mode shifts. Further, our results confirm that the shift towards metro was higher in the case of people “helped” and lower for those participating in some voluntary activities.     

Measuring the car ownership impact of free-floating car-sharing – A case study in Basel,Switzerland

Free-floating car-sharing schemes operate without fixed car-sharing stations, ahead reservations or return-trip requirements. Providing fast and convenient motorization, they attract both public transport users and (former) car-owners. Thus, their impact on individual travel behavior depends on the user type. Estimating the travel behavior impact of these systems therefore requires quantitative data. Using a two-wave survey approach (shortly after launch of the scheme plus one year later) including travel diaries, this research indicates that (due to their membership) 6% of the free-floating car-sharing customers reduce their private vehicle ownership. Moreover, the results suggest that free-floating car-sharing both complements and competes with station-based car-sharing.     

加筋土技术在桥台处的应用分析

主要介绍了加筋土技术的基本力学原理及其在桥台处的应用形式、材料、结构的优点,对应用过程中需要注意的问题进行提示。     

Modeling road traffic fatalities in India: Smeed's law,time invariance and regional specificity

Mathematical formulations linking road traffic fatalities to vehicle ownership, regional population, and economic growth continue to be developed against the backdrop of Smeed and Andreassen models. Though a few attempts were made, Smeed's law has not been fully tested in India. Using the 1991–2009 panel data from all states, this work (a) developed the generalized Smeed and Andreassen models; (b) evaluated if traffic fatalities were impacted by structural changes; and (c) examined if – in relation to the generalized model – the individual (time and regional) models are more relevant for application. Seven models (Smeed: original, generalized, time-variant, state-variant; and Andreassen: generalized, time-variant, state-variant) were developed and tested for fit with the actual data. Results showed that the per vehicle fatality rate closely resembled Smeed's formulation. Chow-test yielded a significant F-stat, suggesting that the models for four pre-defined time-blocks are structurally different from the 19-year generalized model. The counterclockwise rotation of the log-linear form also suggested lower fatality rates. While the new government policies, reduced vehicle operating speeds, better healthcare, and improved vehicle technology could be the factors, further research is required to understand the reasons for fatality rate reductions. The intercept and gradients of the time-series models showed high stability and varied only slightly in comparison to the 19-year generalized models, thus suggesting that the latter are pragmatic for application. Regional formulations, however, indicate that they may be more relevant for studying trends and tendencies. This research illustrates the robustness of Smeed's law, and provides evidence for time-invariance but state-specificity.     

面元法预报螺旋桨表面非定常压力分布

本文建立了扰动速度势面元法预报螺旋桨表面非定常压力分布的理论和数值方法。该方法把桨叶和桨毂表面离散为若干四边形双曲面元,每个面元上布置等强度源汇和偶极子分布,螺旋桨尾涡面也离散为布置等强度偶极子的四边形双曲面元。所有的时域参数通过傅里叶级数展开转化为频域参数,使得在时间域内的求解转化为每一谐调阶上的求解。桨叶随边处通过迭代和采用广义逆矩阵方法在每一谐调阶上实现非线性等压库塔条件。桨叶表面非定常压力