The development of a policy for road tax in Turkey, using a genetic algorithm approach for demand estimation

This study deals, first, with estimation of transport demand based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach, and then deals with the evaluation of the road tax system in Turkey. It proposes an alternative road tax policy. The total transport demand is estimated based on population, Gross Domestic Product per Capita (GDPPC), and vehicle-number. Three forms of the Genetic Algorithm Transport Demand Estimation for Tax Revenues (GATDETR) are developed, of which one is linear, and the second and third are exponential forms of the mathematical expressions. The best-fit GATDETR model in terms of total minimum relative average errors between observed and estimated values are selected for future demand estimation. The evaluation of the road tax system and policy proposal is made based on estimated demand. The Distance-Based-Taxation (DBT) system is proposed in order to control highway transport. With the DBT system, some road users may wish to use railway. Thus, we re-organize the railways in order to meet the demand, but this requires new fund. The DBT system may help to create to this fund. It may also help to develop fair-taxation for the road users. Results show that the GA can be used to model transport demand and hence income tax in future transports planning. This study also suggests that planning the taxation in highway transport may help to ease funding problem of railway system.     

Water resources development in Turkey

The Southeastern Anatolia Projec(tGAP),one of the most important projects for developing remarkable natural resources of the world,is accepted as a change for getting benefit from rich water and agricultural resources of the Southeastern Anatolia Region.The GAP Project has been considered as a regional development projects through years,but the dimensions of sustainability,protection of environment and participatory have been attached to the master of the project in recent years.When the GAP Project is completed,the Upper Mesopotomia, the centers of many civilisation,will re-again its importance as it had in the ancient times,and will be alive a center of civilisation.Moreover,when the problem of water shortage and water supplies in the world for the future is kept in mind,the importance of Southeastern Anatolia′s water supplies will be doubled.For this reason,the GAP Project,developed by depending on water and natural resources of the region,will have an important place in the world.The aim of this study is to introduce the region with rich natural resources and the GAP Project.For this reason,firstly,the natural potential of the region will be introduced.Second,the GAP Project will be presented in details.In the third stage,the projects being processed for protecting the natural sources and environment will be analyzed.In the last stage,strategies and policies to develop and to protect the natural resources of the region in short,mid,and long terms will be proposed.     

蓬勃发展的土耳其城市地铁建设

介绍小亚细亚(Anatolia)地区11个城市轨道交通建设的最新进展与运营情况,并对未来的规划设想进行展望.     

土耳其摩托车市场和准入管理制度（1）

土耳其的摩托车市场在近几年发展比较迅猛,目前,土耳其全国的摩托车保有量达到250万辆,每千人拥有30辆摩托车。土耳其由于在地理上靠近欧洲,因此在车辆产品的管理和技术法规方面受欧洲影响很大,与国际惯例相符合的程度也很高。土耳其负责车辆产品市场准入管理的政府主管和批准机关为土耳其工业与贸易部,该机关负责整车产品和零部件的型式批准。     

Transport Demand Management in Turkey: A Genetic Algorithm Approach

Abstract

This article proposes new models for estimating transport demand using a genetic algorithm (GA) approach. Based on population, gross national product and number of vehicles, four forms of the genetic algorithm transport planning (GATP) model are developed – one exponential and the others taking quadratic forms – and applied to Turkey. The best fit models in terms of minimum total average relative errors in the test period are selected for future estimation. Demand management strategies are proposed based on three scenarios: restricting private car use, restricting truck use and the simultaneous management of private car use and goods movement. Results show that the GATP model may be used to estimate transport demand in terms of passenger-kilometers traveled (pass-km), vehicle-kilometers traveled (veh-km) and ton-kilometers completed (ton-km). Results also show that the third scenario – simultaneous restrictions on private car use and goods movement – could reduce total veh-km by about 35% by 2025 in this study of Turkish rural roads.     

Modeling Car Ownership in Turkey Using Fuzzy Regression

Abstract

This article develops a model which can be used to determine car ownership in Turkey. Because of the lack of disaggregated data, the model is based on aggregated data. As owning a car is mainly affected by economic, social and demographic factors, the car ownership model has a multi-variable form. In order to explain the effects of these factors on car ownership in Turkey, a fuzzy multiple-regression model is used. The major reason for applying fuzzy regression is to overcome the intercorrelation problem associated with the independent variables. In this study, the urbanization rate, average family size, gross national product per capita, average car cost, gasoline price and total length of roads are selected as independent variables. The results show that, by applying a multi-variable approach to possibilistic regression, the model provides not only a crisp output but also an output range for car ownership in Turkey between 1970 and 2000.     

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工业、政府和学术界在研究与开发过程中已经开始采用技术路线图来确定其技术战略、寻找发展空间与机遇. 汽车产业正面临不断的技术突破与技术改进的激烈竞争中,应当具有与公司灵活目标相匹配的路线图,以便管理者能够根据技术改进的影响来及时重新评估和调整路线图. 本研究的重点是未来动力传动系统,根据不同的选择方式确定最可能的植入路线图,以达到提高动力系统效能的目标.