城市交通投资的消费者福利评价

城市交通中多种出行方式共存等特性使传统的成本一效益分析法难以分析出交通投资产生的效果。文中假设发生在各起讫点问的交通出行是1个消费者代表的出行选择结果,推导一般均衡条件下交通服务供应水平变化与消费者剩余之间的关系。通过Logit模型模拟方式选择得到需求函数,结果显示交通投资产生的消费者福利与交通方式选择集的最大效用的期望值有关,表明以离散选择模型为基础的福利评价方法适用于多种交通投资的效果评价,包括交通方式选择集发生变化的情况。     

基于X-ray CT和离散元法级配离析对沥青混合料骨架结构力学性能的影响

为从细观角度探究分析级配离析对沥青混合料骨架结构力学性能的影响,基于X-ray CT断层图像扫描技术和离散元法建立三维混合料骨架模型,对不同级配离析情况下的混合料骨架内部受力情况、抵抗荷载性能、应力传递性能等方面进行了对比和研究。结果表明:提出了利用X-ray CT断层图像扫描技术构建更接近于真实形态的集料颗粒模型的方法;骨架结构中较粗集料承受了主要的外力荷载作用;以典型的SMA-16级配为例,4.75~9.5 mm档集料是构成该级配集料骨架的关键粒径;骨架结构中细集料的增多有助于提高骨架的抗压强度,发生粗集料离析时,抗压强度将随着离析程度的加剧而显著地降低;不同的级配离析状态对混合料骨架结构的竖向与横向应力传递性能产生不同影响,其中细集料离析对应力传递性能的影响更大。     

基于路网可达性的城市交通离散网络设计模型及算法

根据城市交通路网分区理论,把分成的子区看成一个节点,考虑所有节点的可达性,以此度量整个路网的可达性,设计了基于路网可达性最大为目标的城市交通离散网络设计模型。采用粒子群算法,并给出一个简单的算例,算例表明,合理的添加路段,能使城市路网可达性达到最大。     

Optimal preview game theory approach to vehicle stability controller design

Dynamic game theory brings together different features that are keys to many situations in control design: optimisation behaviour, the presence of multiple agents/players, enduring consequences of decisions and robustness with respect to variability in the environment, etc. In the presented methodology, vehicle stability is represented by a cooperative dynamic/difference game such that its two agents (players), namely the driver and the direct yaw controller (DYC), are working together to provide more stability to the vehicle system. While the driver provides the steering wheel control, the DYC control algorithm is obtained by the Nash game theory to ensure optimal performance as well as robustness to disturbances. The common two-degrees-of-freedom vehicle-handling performance model is put into discrete form to develop the game equations of motion. To evaluate the developed control algorithm, CarSim with its built-in nonlinear vehicle model along with the Pacejka tire model is used. The control algorithm is evaluated for a lane change manoeuvre, and the optimal set of steering angle and corrective yaw moment is calculated and fed to the test vehicle. Simulation results show that the optimal preview control algorithm can significantly reduce lateral velocity, yaw rate, and roll angle, which all contribute to enhancing vehicle stability.     

沥青混合料裂纹发展过程的颗粒流模拟

为了在细观尺度下描述沥青混合料的裂纹发展行为,运用离散元程序PFC2D内置“Fish”语言,重构了沥青混合料非均质(集料、胶浆和空隙)多层次(矿料级配)结构虚拟试件,对虚拟试件微观组成成分之间的接触赋予了相应的微观接触模型,采用离散元方法实施了单边切口小梁虚拟3点弯曲试验,借助数字摄像法捕捉了室内小梁试件表面裂纹发展情况,在二维尺度下探索了沥青混合料的部分断裂机理.结果表明:虚拟试验得到的宏观断裂力学响应与室内试验结果的吻合度较好,仅采用试件单面图像信息构建模型进行力学性能预测缺乏可信度;虚拟试验模拟的二维裂纹扩展路径与室内数字摄影法结果较为相似,二者都体现出材料脆性断裂特点,二维模型往往夸大了粗集料在混合料断裂过程中的作用;基于离散元程序的裂纹扩展行为分析方法,可以作为研究沥青混凝土材料断裂行为的辅助手段.     

A conceptual and methdological framework for the generation of activity-travel patterns

This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

Analysing Demand for Suburban Trips: A Mixed RP/SP Model with Latent Variables and Interaction Effects

We analyse mode choice behaviour for suburban trips in the Grand Canary island using mixed revealed preference (RP)/stated preference (SP) information. The SP choice experiment allowed for interactions among the main policy variables: travel cost, travel time and frequency, and also to test the influence of latent variables such as comfort. It also led to discuss additional requirements on the size and sign of the estimated model parameters, to assess model quality when interactions are present. The RP survey produced data on actual trip behaviour and was used to adapt the SP choice experiment. During the specification searches we detected the presence of income effect and were able to derive willingness-to-pay measures, such as the subjective value of time, which varied among individuals. We also studied the systematic heterogeneity in individual tastes through the specification of models allowing for interactions between level-of-service and socio-economic variables. We concluded examining the sensitivity of travellers’ behaviour to various policy scenarios. In particular, it seems that contrary to political opinion, in a crowded island policies penalising the use of the private car seem to have a far greater impact in terms of bus patronage than policies implying direct improvements to the public transport service.     

Development and validation of a direct mode choice model

A direct discrete mode choice model is introduced using relative attributes of competing modes as well as socioeconomic characteristics of travelers. The model is calibrated and validated for two available historic databases in the Dallas–Fort Worth region. The validation is conducted against the outputs of a current nested logit model used by the regional planning organization as well as the observed values based on transit ridership surveys for a newly inaugurated commuter rail service. The calibrated model is applied after the introduction of this new transit mode. The results show that the estimated mode shares by the proposed model have a statistically better consistency with the observed values than the estimates of the conventional nested logit model. Unlike the logit model, the structure of the direct model based on relative attributes also has the advantage of not needing recalibration each time a new travel mode is introduced. The model is found to be easier to calibrate and produces more accurate results than the nested logit model, commonly used by many metropolitan planning organizations.