基于线性叠加的智能船舶经济性评估模型构建

经济性是智能船舶能否实现推广应用的关键,目前国内外有关智能船舶经济性分析的研究较少。本文通过对传统船舶经济性分析方法进行修正优化,提出智能船舶经济性分析计算模型,并根据理论推导结果,得出智能船舶经济性分析的线性叠加简化模型,并利用40万吨级VLOC实际运营数据进行科学性检验。本文提出的模型与方法适用于各类智能模块加装情况下的经济性核算,为相关单位开展智能船舶经济性快速分析提供了理论支持和解决方案。     

Widening the Panama Canal and U.S. ports: historical and economic impact analyses

ABSTRACT

The economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion.     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

造船经济论证方法的探讨

船舶经济分析是船舶技术经济论证的主要环节之一,但传统的造船经济论证方法存在着一定的缺陷。为此,充分考虑各个因素的不确定性,考虑经营的风险性,对传统的造船经济论证方法加以综合改进,形成新的造船论证方法——计算机模拟方法。与传统方法相比,计算机模拟的方法在最终结果的处理上更有现实意义。     

从温州经济模式学到的经验

叙述了温州经济模式的发展 ,并总结了温州模式的思想精髓     

钢轨快速焊补技术的研究与应用

介绍南京工务段对伤损钢轨在现场进行快速焊补的工艺,包括清除缺陷、对补焊位置预热、焊补后磨平,并进行探伤检查等,取得了较好的效果。     

带孔沉箱结构类型与经济效益分析

通过大连华能电厂的循环水取水口工程实例,对不同的大型带孔沉箱结构进行了结构和经济效益的分析比较,以期推广受力性能较好、施工方便可行、经济效益较好的新型沉箱结构。     

船闸水力学研究的回顾与展望

将天津水运工程科学研究所建所30年来,在通航船闸水力学方面的试验研究成果,包括船闸输水系统布置、船闸防咸、船闸中间渠道和船闸基础理论作一总结性的回顾。同时,对船闸的研究水平、发展趋势和前景作一展望。     

全员聘任制在我国高校管理岗位上的应用

实行全员聘任制对高校建设一支充满活力、整体优化的管理队伍有很大的推动作用.现阶段我国高校管理岗位全员聘任制在实际操作过程中还存在一系列问题,如全员聘任观念还未深入人心、聘任制在一定程度上还流于形式、聘任方法还有待于完善.需要通过完善工作分析、严格入口关、多渠道选人、加强考核、探索程序简化、切实有效的聘用方法加以改进,进一步完善全员聘任制在高校管理岗位上的应用.     

对《桥上无缝线路设计暂行规定》若干关键技术问题的探讨

对桥墩纵向线刚度限值的合理性、无缝线路纵向力的荷载组合等关键技术问题进行了深入的探讨,对桥上无缝线路的设计有一定的参考价值。