交通需求OD估计与预测的现状研究分析

目前，对于静态OD矩阵估计问题已经有很多研究者，对于动态OD前沿的研究工作则非常有限。关于对OD估计和预测的研究可分为封闭网络和开放网络。介绍了研究封闭网络的Bell，Van der Zijpp，Chang and Wu和Chang and Tao等人的方法，以及研究开放网络动态估计的3种方法，即Cascetta、Okutani、Ashok和Ben—Akiva等人的方法。并指出可以将OD估计问题陈述为具有不同误差特性、多个来源的不同类型信息的综合性和一致性的结合体，此联合估测就是经济计量学的混合估计的问题。     

超灵便型多用途船舶的开发和设计

主要介绍了灵便型多用途船舶市场需求的趋势以及其设计理念。这一新理念的3万吨级多用途船被命名为"超灵便"型,4家中国船厂迄今收到了总共22艘该型船舶的订单,另有许多其他船舶公司表达了今后订购的意向。     

Aggregate expenditure elasticity for transport and communication in Australia

For the purpose of estimating Engel elasticity, one needs to find the best functional form among various alternatives. In this paper, a new function, which is called the double semi-log Engel function turns out to be the best functional form for the transport and communication items in Australia on the basis of the distance function (D²) criterion, and the non-nested hypothesis testing procedure. This function is then used to estimate total expenditure elasticity, and the percentage change in consumer demand due to changes in total expenditure and total expenditure inequalities; using the 1975–76 Household Expenditure Survey data. The results of the analyses demonstrate that transport and communication is a necessary item in Australia on the basis of two criteria, viz., its elasticity is not significantly greater than unity, and the percentage change in demand increases with a decrease of the total expenditure inequality [emphasised by Iyengar (I960)]. Policy implication of the analyses has also been discussed.     

Ramp meters on trial: Evidence from the Twin Cities metering holiday

Ramp meters in the Twin Cities have been the subject of a recent test of their effectiveness, involving turning them off for eight weeks. This paper analyzes the results with and without ramp metering for several representative freeways during the afternoon peak period. Seven performance measures: mobility, equity, productivity, consumers’ surplus, accessibility, travel time variation and travel demand responses are compared. It is found that ramp meters are particularly helpful for long trips relative to short trips. Ramp metering, while generally beneficial to freeway segments, may not improve trip travel times (including ramp delays). The reduction in travel time variation comprises another benefit from ramp meters. Non-work trips and work trips respond differently to ramp meters. The results are mixed, suggesting a more refined ramp control algorithm, which explicitly considers ramp delay, is in order.     

JC型弹性旁承体安装时侧翼橡胶层应力分析

对目前货车转向架装用的JC型双作用弹性旁承体进行了非线性有限元计算,分析了旁承体两侧翼橡胶层在安装及工作时的应力,给出了JC型双作用弹性旁承体在安装时的相关建议。     

Total cost analysis: An alternative to benefit-cost analysis in evaluating transportation alternatives

This paper explains the theory in support of total cost analysis (TCA) to compare transportation system alternatives. The full costs of each alternative are first aggregated, including travel time costs and monetizable environmental and social costs. Many costs which are considered on the benefits side of the equation in benefit-cost analysis (BCA) as "cost savings" are brought over to the costs side. Total cost differences among alternatives are then traded off against their estimated non-monetized benefits or impacts, just as a consumer trades off product quality against cost before deciding which product he or she will buy. One advantage of TCA over traditional BCA is that the concept of "total cost" is more easily understood by the public and by political decision-makers than BCA concepts such as "net present worth", "benefit-cost ratio" and "internal rate of return". A second advantage is that there is no suggestion that all "benefits" have been considered; decision-makers are free to use their own value judgements to trade off total cost against non-monetizable social, environmental and economic impacts, just as they trade off quality and convenience against cost when purchasing goods and services in their roles as consumers. The TCA approach is demonstrated in this paper through a case study of two systemwide alternatives for the Baltimore, MD urban area.     

Uncertain demand,modal competition and optimal price-capacity adjustments in air transportation

A new microeconomic model for the operation of an airline facing modal competition with uncertain total demand is developed to analyze optimal price capacity combinations. The novelty is the treatment of the capacity restriction, which is not viewed as affecting negatively individual preferences (e.g. probability of a full flight), but does influence aggregate utility. A mode choice model is used to represent unrestricted individual preferences assuming full availability (phone call demand); air capacity is treated as a variable that acts on the actual choice set. Restricted choices and total demand stochasticity are integrated in welfare calculations (users' benefits and profits). Numerical examples are given and results are analyzed in terms of load factors fare levels, and sensitivity to the stochasticity of requests.This research was partially funded by FONDECYT, Chile, Direction Génerale de l'Aviation Civile, France, the Andes Foundation and the Fulbright Commission.     

基于弹性动力分析的工程机械集成化设计系统

为了解次目前国内工程机械设计中由于动力学分析水平和设计效率较低而造成的产品性能落后这一长期存在的问题，首次引入弹性动力分析理论建立了工程机械工作装置的通用弹性动力分析模型，以此为基础建立了工程机械动力学仿真系统，并建立了工程机械方案设计与部件选型专家系统以实现总体方案设计、部件选型和整机动力匹配的自动化，最后利用信息集成技术建立了基于弹性动力分析的工程机械集成化设计系统。     

多年冻土地区路基冻胀变形分析

首先模拟气候因素变化过程,得到不同时期冻土路基温度场分布,温度场随时间的变化可以反映出冻结相变区的变化,然后考虑土体体积力和土体冻结相变产生的冻胀力,采用考虑拉破坏的热弹性力学方法,分析得到多年冻土地区路基变形分布和演变规律;在此基础上,对冻土路基纵向裂缝的成因进行研究,揭示出冻土路基纵向裂缝主要出现于路面中部及路面靠近路肩部位,这与实际情况是相符合的。进一步的分析表明:采用低冻胀性的土填筑路基,如采用碎石土填筑,对于降低冻土路基冻胀变形及防治纵向裂缝病害是有效的。     

地下连续墙作为桥梁基础在软土地区的应用

本文以上海浦东国际机场1号桥的设计为背景,介绍了地下连续墙做为桥梁基础的计算模型的建立、计算参数的取值以及构造处理措施。结果表明:当条件受限制时,地下连续墙不失为一种较好的基础型式。