基于车辆自动定位数据的有轨电车运行效率分析与应用

结合有轨电车线路的现有车辆自动定位数据,分析有轨电车运行效率及其相关影响因素。其中,影响因素从站台、路段、交叉口3个方面进行考虑。定性分析了不同站台型式、站台位置、交叉口类型的属性特征,并量化不同路段的路段长度、所包含的交叉口个数,同时考虑了交叉口控制策略对有轨电车运行时间的影响。以某已运营的有轨电车线路为例,通过建立多元线性回归模型,从不同层面探究不同因素对已运营有轨电车线路运行效率的影响。最后用模型对有轨电车新建线路的运行效率进行预测,并提出建议。     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

海员避碰行动各指标相关性的多元回归分析

在获取大量海员避碰行动样本的基础上，通过建立多元线性回归的数学模型，分析了转向时机、转向幅度、目标船舷角、会遇两船的船速比等4个指标与目标船最后通过距离之间的相关性大小，结论对海员避碰行动决策有一定的参考价值。由于样本是在对海员进行航海模拟器训练中获得的，从而说明了用航海模拟器来研究避碰行为的可行性以及STCW公约强化模拟器训练的必要性。     

Statistical Approaches to Mapping QTL of Dynamic Traits

Dynamic traits are those that change with timein the development process of life or other quanti-tative factor (e. g. environmental condition).These traits also are called infinite-dimensionalcharacters by Kirkpatrick and Heckman[1]andfunction-valued traits by Pletcher and Geyer[2], be-cause they can be expressed as a function of someindependent and continuous variables. Dynamictraits are collected at many time points during thecourse of life. Therefore, studies of dynamic traitsare regarded…     

Development of Green-Naghdi models with a wave-absorbing beach for nonlinear, irregular wave propagation

Two-dimensional and three-dimensional Green-Naghdi (GN) models equipped with a numerical wave-absorbing beach have been developed to simulate nonlinear, regular, and irregular wave propagation. The numerical beach is introduced near the downstream boundary to absorb outgoing waves. An appropriate amount of numerical damping and an appropriate length of numerical beach are investigated using numerical experiments. The results show that the GN models with a numerical beach work very well in simulating wave propagation in water in a small computational domain.     

基于支持向量机的可靠性增长费用建模与分析

支持向量机是一种采用结构风险最小化原则代替传统经验风险最小化原则的新型统计学习方法，具有完备的理论基础。首先应用支持向量机原理建立了基于支持向量机的多参数武器装备可靠性增长费用预测模型，然后对我军某型现役装备使用阶段可靠性增长费用数据进行了预测与分析。结果表明，与一般的回归分析相比，基于支持向量机的回归模型具有很好的预测精度。     

高炉锰铁生产要素的多元回归分析

采用数理统计方法中的多元线性回归方法分析了高炉锰铁实际生产数据(模拟),得到了高炉利用系数、综合焦比与其主要影响因素综合冶炼强度、休风率、焦炭负荷、入炉锰矿品位、锰回收率的一组多元线性回归方程式,确定了上述各因素对高炉利用系数、综合焦比影响的重要性顺序,为今后高炉锰铁生产预测、决策和调控提供了依据。     

高性能混凝土冬季施工强度的线性回归分析

京津城际客运专线凉水河特大桥部分墩台需在冬季施工，结合工程实际通过对试验数据的线性回归分析，推导出高性能混凝土冬季施工强度的一元线性回归方程，以此指导施工。介绍回归方程的应用和适用条件。     

权扰动的影响度量矩阵及其矩阵分析

对于加权线性回归模型,我们考虑权扰动的影响度量问题,给出权扰动的影响度量矩阵,利用迹、谱范数为工具,得出一些结论.     

高铁无柱雨棚工程造价估算与敏感性分析

影响高铁客运站无柱雨棚结构工程造价的因素很多,在收集已建高铁客运站无柱雨棚结构工程造价数据的基础上,针对侧式客站无柱雨棚结构工程造价选取了相应的几个主要影响变量。根据多元回归分析理论,分别建立了多元逐步线性回归模型和二次响应曲面模型,通过拟合模型的对比分析与实例验证,提出二次响应曲面模型在高铁侧式站无柱雨棚结构工程造价估算上的应用前景。并在此基础上,应用二次响应曲面模型研究得出各主要敏感因素对无柱雨棚结构工程造价的敏感程度。从投资角度为高铁侧式站无柱雨棚结构体系设计和建设提供了优化方向。