中央企业战略管控体系构建研究

研究目的:战略管控体系建设是央企的当务之急,深受中央企业重视。本文根据中央企业的特点,从战略管控的本质、内涵和特点入手,分析了中央企业战略管控中存在的问题,提出了构建战略管控体系的原则和构建内容,建立了一套中央企业战略管控体系,为中央企业战略管控体系建设提供了理论依据和重要参考。研究结论:建立中央企业战略管控体系对提高战略管控能力、降低企业风险具有重要意义。中央企业应把握科学规律,根据企业集团战略管控特点,遵循系统论设计原理,综合考虑各要素、各层级和各主体之间的关系,构建一套适合企业发展的战略管控体系。中央企业应按照PDCA循环执行,通过实施反馈和效果评价,持续改进,不断完善,提高管控体系的适应性。     

营口港发展战略规划

根据21世纪营口港发展的指导思想和基本方针,从战略定位、战略目标、战略措施几方面对营口港的发展进行战略规划。     

美军战略运输能力概览及启示

对美军陆、海、空战略运输能力和战略运输指挥能力及建设情况进行了逐一解析,并就加强我军战略运输能力,在完善运输指挥体系、运输力量结构优化和战场交通基础设施建设方面提出了几点建议。     

Situation analysis forecasting: the case of European maritime clusters

Within the literature concerned with aspects of competitiveness, innovation and strategic management of industrial clusters, the body regarding forecasting of strategic management is still nascent. This work aspires to render a contribution within the domain of strategic management forecasting, through the indicative case of European maritime clusters. For this end, a two-tier model is formulated. A quantitative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) methodology that derives from the fusion of a quondam situation analysis and crosstabs’ theory is generated. This leads to the utilization of the crosstab’s conditional probabilities as transition probabilities; the latter are called to compile the transition matrix of a Markov chain. Through this methodology, and the successive Markov chain’s transition matrices, strategic forecasts are extracted for a devised European maritime cluster case. This work relinquishes a novel application with respect to strategic management forecasting, that provides a dichotomy of practical interpretations and scenarios for quantitative situation analysis. Thus, it may enable effective real-time decision-making for strategic management and/or policy drafting. The situation analysis forecasting model may find applicability in a plethora of practical and theoretical cases, wherein forecasting may be desirable. It may as well pertain to an intrinsic methodology for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters.     

Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic assignment models can be described by three genes. The first gene determines the spatial capability (unrestricted, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, and capacity and storage constrained) described by four spatial assumptions (shape of the fundamental diagram, capacity constraints, storage constraints, and turn flow restrictions). The second gene determines the temporal capability (static, semi-dynamic, and dynamic) described by three temporal assumptions (wave speeds, vehicle propagation speeds, and residual traffic transfer). The third gene determines the behavioural capability (all-or-nothing, one shot, and equilibrium) described by two behavioural assumptions (decision-making and travel time consideration). This classification provides a deeper understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in traffic assignment models described in the literature. It further allows for comparing different models in terms of functionality, and paves the way for developing novel traffic assignment models.     

基于盲数理论的我国海上战略通道安全风险评价

对我国海上战略通道进行安全风险评价是保障海上通道安全的重要环节。由于海上战略通道的安全风险具有多种不确定性，故可运用盲数理论建立我国海上战略通道安全风险等级评价的盲数模型。通过专家打分的方法对影响因素进行未确知测度，构造判断矩阵获得影响因素的权重，从而得到模型的综合未确知测度，根据既定的评价准则获得海上通道的安全风险级别。文中对我国重要的海上通道马六甲海峡进行了安全风险评价，其评价结果为：马六甲海峡的安全级别为较危险级别，验证了该盲数模型的有效性。     

企业物流管理中的战略规划

本着重从企业物流管理战略目标的设定、竞争战略的定位、物流系统发展战略的制定等方面讨论了企业物流管理中的战略规划问题，研究了企业如何制定出合适的物流战略规划，为企业带来真正的竞争优势。     

一种惯性/星光复合制导系统研究

针对传统的基于姿态角修正的惯性/星光复合制导系统的不足,提出了一种新的基于位置和姿态信息进行融合估计的惯性/星光复合制导修正方案,来提高战略导弹的制导精度和可靠性。一方面利用得到的星敏感器视场中恒星星光矢量在CCD光敏面上的星像点及其在导航星库中的赤经、赤纬,结合高度仪给出的导弹高度值,可得到战略导弹的位置信息,再与惯导系统给出的导弹位置信息相减可得到位置误差测量值;另一方面通过星图识别及坐标变换可得到战略导弹的姿态误差值。以Kalman滤波为基础,将得到的位置误差和姿态角误差进行数据融合,估计出复合制导系统的误差状态量,进而修正惯导系统的位置、速度和姿态角参数。仿真结果表明,该方案有效地抑制了传统复合方案中位置和速度误差的发散,并使系统具有较高的精度和可靠性。     

定时预防维修方针和策略的数字仿真分析

传统上对于装备的定时预防维修有两种方针：更新型方针和修复型方针，针对这两种维修方针，在维修费用策略、系统可用度策略基础上，从效能／费用观点出发提出效费比维修策略，进而对一个典型的威布尔故障分布实例进行数字仿真。结果表明，效费比维修策略在达到最佳效费比的同时，能够显著提高系统可靠性，并已在某型武器维修实践中得到应用。     

航运企业选择战略联盟伙伴的决策方法

战略联盟作为企业经营的一种新理念 ,自美国DEC公司总裁简·霍普兰德 (J .Hopland)和管理学家罗杰·奈杰尔 (R .Nigle)提出以来 ,在近 2 0多年的时间里 ,越来越多的企业通过战略联盟的方式参与全球竞争 ,并取得了显著的效果。这一组织制度的创新理论 ,迅速成为各大公司获取自身利益最大化的最优选择。我国加入WTO后 ,航运业的竞争也将日趋激烈 ,对如何提高航运企业的竞争优势 ,作出合理的决策 ,关系到企业的生存大计。通过对航运企业实施战略联盟的分析 ,提出了航运企业在选择战略联盟伙伴时 ,可供采取的模糊综合评判决策方法