Application of interval Multi-attribute Decision-Making Method to Aeroengine Performance Ranking

Introduction The performance deterioration of aeroengine isone of the key factors which may induce aircraft cata-strophic events. With the expansion of airline fleets,the number of aeroengines increase dramatically.Because performance parameters can refle…     

基于可变模糊集的铁路应急救援决策方法研究

目前的铁路应急救援决策方法存在无法适应不同的决策需求、灵活性较差等问题。为此,引入以对立模糊集概念为基础的可变模糊决策模型与方法,提出铁路应急救援决策方案的可变模糊集优选方法,通过参数向量的变化来提高系统决策的可靠性。根据评价指标的特征值矩阵和指标权重向量,计算各方案在不同模型下的相对优属度向量,选择相对优属度最大的方案为决策方案。将可变模糊优选方法应用在铁路应急救援决策案例中,结果表明,铁路应急救援的可变模糊决策方法具有可行性和有效性,为铁路应急决策实践提供了新的解决思路。     

铁路货运调度指挥辅助决策系统的优化设计

针对当前铁路货运调度指挥的现状,提出在运输能力一定的条件下铁路货运调度指挥辅助决策系统,为货运调度指挥提供决策依据.对该系统的优化设计、数学模型、优化算法等进行了分析和论述.     

浅议广州地铁工程投资控制

文章从广州地铁建设项目的决策阶段、设计阶段和工程实施阶段分别阐述和分析．通过科学的优化管理，在保证质量、进度和安全的前提下，实现对地铁建设工程的投资控制。     

A three-stage evacuation decision-making and behavior model for the onset of an attack

Pedestrian behavior models have successfully reproduced human movement in many situations. However, few studies focus on modeling human behavior in the context of terrorist attacks. Terrorist attacks commonly occur in crowded public areas and result in a large number of casualties. This paper proposes a three-stage model to reproduce a series of complex behaviors and decision-making processes at the onset of an attack, when pedestrians generally do not have clear targets and have to deal with fuzzy information from the attack. The first stage of the model builds a Bayesian belief network to represent the pedestrians’ initial judgment of the threat and their evacuation decisions. The second stage focuses on pedestrians’ global assessment of the situation through an analogy with diffusion processes. The third stage uses a cost function to reproduce the trade-offs of distance, safety, and emotional impact when considering a path to take. The model is validated using a video from the November 2015 Paris attack. The behavioral characteristics and trajectories of three pedestrians extracted from the video are reproduced by the simulation results based on the model. The research can be used to set rules when performing risk analysis and strategic defensive resource allocation of terrorist attacks using agent-based simulation methods.     

Co-location decision tree for enhancing decision-making of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation

This paper presents a new decision tree induction method, called co-location-based decision tree (CL-DT), to enhance the decision-making of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. The proposed algorithm utilizes the co-location characteristics of spatial attribute data in the pavement database. The paper first presented the co-location mining algorithm, including spatial attribute data selection, determination of rough candidate co-locations, determination of candidate co-locations, pruning the non-prevalent co-locations, and induction of co-location rules, and then focused on the development of the co-location decision tree (CL-DT) algorithm, which includes the non-spatial attribute data selection, co-location algorithm modeling, node merging criteria, and co-location decision tree induction. A pavement database covering four counties, which are provided by North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), is used to verify the proposed method. The experimental results demonstrated that (1) the proposed CL-DT algorithm can make a better decision, and has higher accuracy than the existing decision tree methods do; (2) the training data can be fully played roles in contribution to decision tree induction and the computational time taken for the tree growing, tree drawing and rule generation is largely decreased; (3) quantity and locations of six treatment strategies proposed by the ITRC and by CL-DT is much close for each treatment strategy.     

基于空间相似理论的线路走向决策方法研究

合理科学的线路走向会降低工程投资、提高运输效率,使线路在路网中发挥最佳的作用。为了研究线路走向合理科学的决策方法,通过分析影响线路走向的各种因素,提取主影响因子及属性特征,利用Arc GIS的空间分析、数据处理,实现属性单元的指标值量化。根据空间多维度相似的相似度计算方法,通过空间相似理论和提取出的主影响因子,构建设计线路方案决策模型,实现基于空间相似理论的线路走向决策。并以兰州张掖城际铁路选线为例进行实证分析,得到合理的线路走向推荐方案。结果表明,该方法可应用到线路走向决策中,可为以后线路走向的选定提供参考。     

Dynamic and disequilibrium analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems

There is a growing awareness in recent years that the interdependencies among the civil infrastructure systems have significant economic, security and engineering implications that may influence their resiliency, efficiency and effectiveness. To capture the various types of infrastructure interdependencies and incorporate them into decision-making processes in various application domains, Zhang and Peeta (2011) propose a generalized modeling framework that combines a multilayer infrastructure network (MIN) concept and a market-based economic approach using computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory and its spatial extension (SCGE) to formulate a static equilibrium infrastructure interdependencies problem. This paper extends the framework to address the dynamic and disequilibrium aspects of the infrastructure interdependencies problems. It briefly reviews the static model, and proposes an alternative formulation for it using the variational inequality (VI) technique. Based on this equivalent VI formulation, a within-period equilibrium-tending dynamic model is proposed to illustrate how these systems evolve towards an equilibrium state within a short duration after a perturbation. To address a longer time scale, a multi-period dynamic model is proposed. This model explicitly considers the evolution of infrastructure interdependencies over time and the temporal interactions among the various systems through dynamic parameters that link the different time periods. Using this model, numerical experiments are conducted for a special case with a single region to analyze the sensitivity of the model to the various parameters, and demonstrate the ability of the modeling framework to formulate and solve practical problems such as cascading failures, disaster recovery, and budget allocation in a dynamic setting.