Analyzing the impact of a planned transit-oriented development on mode share and traffic conditions

ABSTRACT

Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a popular planning strategy used to maximize accessibility to transit for various trip purposes. The quantitative effects of TOD on travel mode shift and traffic congestion have not been extensively tested in the current literature. This paper utilizes a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) mode share model and a mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model to analyze the impact of a planned TOD in Maryland. The proposed model aims at improving the understanding of the quantitative impacts of such a TOD on mode share and traffic congestion. The main result of the mode share model indicates that the increase in transit ridership for a transit accessible shopping center is not that significant. Local traffic conditions will deteriorate due to a lack of investment in road infrastructure planned for the TOD area. The proposed method could be a valuable tool for other indicative land development or transportation policy analyses.     

美国州域交通模型——以马里兰州为例

美国州域交通模型经过近40年的发展已经较为成熟,其建设与应用经验值得中国借鉴,从而应对日益蔓延的交通拥堵与环境污染问题。首先,介绍美国州域交通模型概念及其框架结构,从模型开发、分类、应用等方面系统梳理典型模型的特点与不足。其次,以马里兰州为例介绍州域交通模型的具体应用。最后,为中国省域交通模型建模与应用提出建议,包括明确负责单位、建设专项经费、融合多部门来源交通信息等。