基于线性叠加的智能船舶经济性评估模型构建

经济性是智能船舶能否实现推广应用的关键,目前国内外有关智能船舶经济性分析的研究较少。本文通过对传统船舶经济性分析方法进行修正优化,提出智能船舶经济性分析计算模型,并根据理论推导结果,得出智能船舶经济性分析的线性叠加简化模型,并利用40万吨级VLOC实际运营数据进行科学性检验。本文提出的模型与方法适用于各类智能模块加装情况下的经济性核算,为相关单位开展智能船舶经济性快速分析提供了理论支持和解决方案。     

公共自行车使用时空特性挖掘及租还需求预测

基于宁波市公共自行车刷卡数据、POI(Point of Interest)数据、气象和空气质量等数据，从数据驱动视角，深入挖掘公共自行车使用的时空特征及站点租还车需求预测。在时间上，采用KMeans算法，将站点聚为5类，探讨各类站点的时变需求规律及影响因素；在空间上，提出基于POI 数据的站点用地类型识别方法，将站点分为居住类、交通设施类、办公类和商业休闲类。构建以 15，30，60 min 为间隔，以租还车需求为目标变量的随机森林预测模型，并与常用的 BP (Back Propagation)神经网络、K最近邻方法进行比较。结果表明，随机森林模型的精度更高，适用性更强。以30 min为间隔的站点租还车需求预测精度最高，考虑站点土地利用类型后能有效提高模型的预测精度。本文结果可作为未来站点平衡调度的依据并推广应用于共享单车系统，为改善服务水平提供技术和理论支撑。     

Widening the Panama Canal and U.S. ports: historical and economic impact analyses

ABSTRACT

The economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion.     

地铁临时支援供电中压环网方案研究

因征地拆迁等原因,地铁主变电所及电缆通道常因工期滞后而需临时支援供电。针对临时支援供电问题研究其中压环网方案,提出了系统运行方式及可靠性、压降要求、倒接可行性和经济性4方面评价标准。以武汉地铁2号线南延线为例,提出3种临时支援供电方案。分别阐述了每种方案的运行方式,计算了环网压降,研究倒接方案的可行性和经济性。通过综合比较,总结出各方案的优缺点,提出注意事项,为后续工程提供思路。     

基于车辆自动定位数据的有轨电车运行效率分析与应用

结合有轨电车线路的现有车辆自动定位数据,分析有轨电车运行效率及其相关影响因素。其中,影响因素从站台、路段、交叉口3个方面进行考虑。定性分析了不同站台型式、站台位置、交叉口类型的属性特征,并量化不同路段的路段长度、所包含的交叉口个数,同时考虑了交叉口控制策略对有轨电车运行时间的影响。以某已运营的有轨电车线路为例,通过建立多元线性回归模型,从不同层面探究不同因素对已运营有轨电车线路运行效率的影响。最后用模型对有轨电车新建线路的运行效率进行预测,并提出建议。     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

造船经济论证方法的探讨

船舶经济分析是船舶技术经济论证的主要环节之一,但传统的造船经济论证方法存在着一定的缺陷。为此,充分考虑各个因素的不确定性,考虑经营的风险性,对传统的造船经济论证方法加以综合改进,形成新的造船论证方法——计算机模拟方法。与传统方法相比,计算机模拟的方法在最终结果的处理上更有现实意义。     

从温州经济模式学到的经验

叙述了温州经济模式的发展 ,并总结了温州模式的思想精髓     

基于WSEIAC模型的主要部件可靠性和维修性对舰艇动力装置效能的影响分析

舰艇动力装置的复杂化、自动化程度的提高使得其可靠性和维修性等指标越来越成为制约其效能发挥的重要因素,而动力装置效能的发挥将直接影响作为作战武器平台的舰艇的战斗力的发挥,因此分析影响动力装置效能发挥的因素具有十分重要的意义。文章通过分析确立了动力装置的系统边界和系统状态,运用WSEIAC模型确定了动力装置系统效能与其主要组成系统的可靠性和维修性之间的关系,通过灵敏度分析给出了其关系曲线并进行了分析,得出了动力装置主要组成系统的最佳可靠性和维修性参数值,拓展了WSEIAC模型的应用范围,对于开展舰艇动力装置效费分析也具有重要的参考价值。     

江淮气旋大风预报研究

江淮气旋大风预报研究的结果表明：气旋大风的预报实际上就是冷空气南下造成地面加压与气旋东移造成地面降压，这两个因素所造成气压梯度发展变化地以预报。还介绍用天气学原理建立的大风预报模式，以及用数理统计方法判别有无强风的预报，经过历史拟合和试报，在预报气旋大风中有一定的准确性。