Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

利用Boussinesq方程对作用于大直径圆筒结构上的波浪力进行数值模拟

采用求解Beji和Nadaoka改进的Boussinesq方程,模拟了波浪在多个串连大圆筒结构前的反射,得到了作用于圆筒结构上的波浪力。空间离散采用有限元方法,可以较好地适应圆筒结构表面形成的复杂边界形状。数值模拟结果与公开发表的物理模型试验成果进行了比较,符合较好。     

城市轨道交通车地无线的网络架构及应用

基于目前城市轨道交通运营及安保对车地无线通信网络的需求,通过对WLAN(无线局域网络)及TD-LTE(时分长期演进)技术方案的对比分析,提出更为适用于城市轨道交通的TD-LTE车地无线技术方案.结合郑州市轨道交通1号线一期工程的实例,验证该方案能够实现高速移动状态下的大带宽传输、多业务承载,可解决轨道交通车地通信的瓶颈问题,满足承载需要.     

对城市轨道公共交通工程演化的思考

城市是人类政治、经济、社会、文化的聚焦点,也是人类频繁活动的集散中心。根据全球城市化进程的快速推进,城市公共交通已出现严重瓶颈,阻碍了城市文明发展。从工程演化论学术观分析,城市公共交通朝轨道交通发展已成历史的必然;而城市规模、特征、环境、发达程度所构成的不同形态又促使城轨交通工程演化朝向多样性发展;当前,在新时期下的社会和自然出现更高需求,城轨交通如何依靠技术进化来实现可持续发展是本文作者的思考命题,借此同学术界共勉。     

An Exploration of the Relationship between Timing and Duration of Maintenance Activities

The timing and duration of an activity episode are two important temporal aspects of activity-travel behavior. Understanding the causal relationship between these two variables would be useful in the development of activity-based travel demand modeling systems. This paper investigates the relationship between these two variables by considering two different causal structures – one structure in which time-of-day choice is determined first and influences duration and a second structure in which activity duration is determined first and affects time-of-day choice. These two structures are estimated within a discrete-continuous simultaneous equations framework employing a full-information maximum likelihood methodology that allows error covariance. The estimation is performed separately for commuter and non-commuter samples drawn from a 1996 household travel survey data set from the Tampa Bay area in Florida. The results of the model estimation effort show that the causal structure in which activity duration precedes or affects activity timing (time of day choice) performs better for the non-commuter sample. For the commuter sample, the findings were less conclusive with both causal structures offering equally good statistical measures of fit. In addition, for the commuter sample, all error correlations were found to be zero. These two findings suggest that time of day choice and activity episode duration are only loosely related for the commuter sample, possibly due to the relatively non-discretionary and inflexible work activity and travel.     

Experimental study and modeling of car-following behavior under high speed situation

To investigate the car-following behavior under high speed driving conditions, we performed a set of 11-car-platoon experiments on Hefei airport highway. The formation and growth of oscillations have been analyzed and compared with that in low speed situations. It was found that there is considerable heterogeneity for the same driver over different runs of the experiment. This intra-driver heterogeneity was quantitatively depicted by a new index and incorporated in an enhanced two-dimensional intelligent driver model. Using both the new high-speed and the previous low-speed experimental data, the new and three existing models were calibrated. Simulation results show that the enhanced model outperforms the three existing car-following models that do not take into account this intra-driver heterogeneity in reproducing the essential features of the traffic in the experiments.     

共享停车泊位数量可变下交通流逐日演化规律

为了揭示在共享停车泊位数量可变条件下的网络交通流逐日演化规律,首先构建了共享泊位交易系统,并考虑了交易市场中的共享泊位提供者可以选择2种异质性的价格预期方式,即理性预期方式和幼稚预期方式;而后对共享泊位的均衡价格、2种提供者的占比差、高峰时段公交和小汽车需求的演化规律进行了分析;其次,以2条平行路径的路网为例,对网络交通流量分配的最终演化结果进行了分析;最后,在对上述2个系统的最终演化状态给出定量判据后,以北京市实际路网为例进行了数值试验。理论分析和数值试验结果表明:①对于共享泊位交易系统,若供给曲线斜率小于需求曲线斜率,则共享泊位交易系统的唯一均衡解可实现无条件渐进稳定;否则若理性提供者的交易与预测成本之和大于幼稚提供者,则存在临界提供者选择强度,使得共享泊位交易系统在大于此临界值条件下出现分岔或混沌现象;②对于网络交通流系统,若出行成本对路径流量敏感度小,路径选择概率对出行成本敏感度小,小汽车需求量不大,则系统唯一的均衡解可能是渐进稳定的,否则系统会出现分岔或混沌状态;③当共享泊位交易系统处于渐进稳定状态时,若提供者对共享泊位的价格变动不敏感,用户对其价格变动敏感,潜在共享泊位需求量不大,理性提供者的交易与预测成本之和并非远大于幼稚提供者,提供者选择强度不大,则由于受到共享泊位交易总量的限制,高峰时段的均衡小汽车需求不大,导致网络交通流系统的最终演化状态容易趋向于渐进稳定;④当共享泊位交易系统处于混沌状态时,网络交通流系统会产生更加严重的分岔与混沌现象。     

考虑空车调配协调的货物列车开行方案优化研究

为实现空车调配与货物列车开行方案协调优化，结合基本运行图架构与车流径路，构建货运时空服务拓展网络。考虑配空与装卸取送、集编发等环节的时间接续要求，节点与区段不对流空车要求，以重车流全程运送与空车配送等广义总费用最少为目标，建立整数规划弧路模型。针对既有算法设计局限性，结合重车或空车配空的时间接续要求，提出将不同的 k 短路重车流方案与空车配空方案相关联的改进可行解构造方法，设计混合差分进化求解算法。实例研究表明，考虑空车调配进行重车、空车流组织协调优化，能够减少空车走行费用，及时满足装车需求，有效保证作业车流配合中转车流集结编组及时挂线，提高方案可实施性。     

Local joint flexibility of tubular X-joints stiffened with external ring or external plates

In the present paper, the Local Joint Flexibility (LJF) of the ring-stiffened X-joints and plate-stiffened X-joints under compressive load is investigated. In the first phase, a finite element (FE) model was generated and verified with the results of available experimental tests and equations. In the next phase, a set number of 234 FE models were created to evaluate the role of the external ring size (β_r and τ_r), the external plate size (β_p and τ_p), and the connection geometry (γ, τ, and β) on the LJF factor (f_LJF). In these FE models, the weld connecting the chord and brace members was generated. The results indicated that the f_LJF of a plate stiffened joint can be down to 76% of the f_LJF of the corresponding un-stiffened joint. Also, the effect of the ring size on the f_LJF was more than the effect of the plate size on the f_LJF, because of the stiffener position. Despite the notable effect of the ring and the plate on the f_LJF, there is not any study or formula on tubular connections stiffened with ring or plate. Therefore, the FE results were used to propose two parametric formulas for determining the f_LJF in X-joints with external ring or external plate under brace compressive load. Moreover, the derived formulas were checked based on the UK DoE acceptance criteria.     

A new model for temporal–spatial stochastic analysis of vehicle–track coupled systems

The vehicle–track coupled system has a random nature in the time–space domain. This paper proposes a computational model to analyse the temporal–spatial stochastic vibrations of vehicle–track systems, where the vehicle–track system is divided into a vehicle subsystem, track subsystem, and interfacial subsystem between the wheel and rail. In this model, the time-varying randomicity of dynamical parameters of the vehicle system, correlation, and randomness of the track structural parameters in the time–space joint dimensions, and randomness of the track random irregularities are considered. A probability dimension-reduction method was used to randomly combine different random variables. Furthermore, the probability density evolution method was applied to solve the delivery problem of probabilities between excitation inputs and response outputs. The temporal–spatial stochastic vibrations of the vehicle–track system with different coefficients of variation were studied, in which we assumed that the dynamic parameters obeyed the normal distribution, and the stochastic simulation method of the track random irregularities is probed into. The calculated results from this model are consistent with the actual measured results and physical conceptions. Thus, the temporal–spatial stochastic evolutionary mechanism can be explored, and the limits of dynamic indices can be formulated by using this developed model.