Improving train service reliability by applying an effective timetable robustness strategy

ABSTRACT

To avoid propagation of delays in dense railway timetables, it is important to ensure robustness. One strategy to improve robustness is to provide adequate amount of buffer times between trains. This study concerns how “scheduled minimum headways” should be determined in order to improve robustness in timetables. Scheduled minimum headways include technical minimum headway plus some buffer time. We propose a strategy to be implemented in timetables at the final stages of planning and prior to the operations. The main contributions of this study are 1) to propose a strategy where the size of the scheduled minimum headways is dependent on trains' travel times instead of a fixed-sized time slot and it is called “travel time dependent scheduled minimum headways” or TTDSMH, 2) to evaluate the effects of the new strategy on heterogeneity, speed, and the number of trains in timetables, 3) to show that a simple strategy can improve robustness without imposing major changes in timetables. The strategy is implemented in an Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for timetabling and tested for some problem instances from Sweden. Results show that TTDSMH can improve robustness. The proposed strategy can be applied in intelligent transportation tools for railway timetabling.     

A stochastic model of traffic flow: Theoretical foundations

In a variety of applications of traffic flow, including traffic simulation, real-time estimation and prediction, one requires a probabilistic model of traffic flow. The usual approach to constructing such models involves the addition of random noise terms to deterministic equations, which could lead to negative traffic densities and mean dynamics that are inconsistent with the original deterministic dynamics. This paper offers a new stochastic model of traffic flow that addresses these issues. The source of randomness in the proposed model is the uncertainty inherent in driver gap choice, which is represented by random state dependent vehicle time headways. A wide range of time headway distributions is allowed. From the random time headways, counting processes are defined, which represent cumulative flows across cell boundaries in a discrete space and continuous time conservation framework. We show that our construction implicitly ensures non-negativity of traffic densities and that the fluid limit of the stochastic model is consistent with cell transmission model (CTM) based deterministic dynamics.     

A total generalized optimal velocity model and its numerical tests

A car-following model named total generalized optimal velocity model （TGOVM） was developed with a consideration of an arbitrary number of preceding vehicles before current one based on analyzing the previous models such as optimal velocity model （OVM）, generalized OVM （GOVM） and improved GOVM （IGOVM）. This model describes the physical phenomena of traffic flow more exactly and realistically than previous models. Also the performance of this model was checked out by simulating the acceleration and deceleration process for a small delay time. On a single circular lane, the evolution of the traffic congestion was studied for a different number of headways and relative velocities of the preceding vehicles being taken into account. The simulation results show that TGOVM is reasonable and correct.     

既有双线提高旅客列车速度对起停附加时分及追踪列车间隔的影响

将旅客列车速度提高到１４０￣１６０ｋｍ／ｈ是铁路改善旅客运输质量、参与市场竞争的重要手段，是铁路面临的新课题。本文对既有双线自动闭塞区段提高旅客列车速度并相应提高货物列车速度后旅客列车起停附加时分及货物列车起停附加时分的变化进行了分析和讨论，进而对旅客列车提高速度后的列车追踪间隔时间Ｉ追、列车到达间隔时间Ｉ到、列车出发间隔时间Ｉ发和列车不停车通过车站间隔时间Ｉ通的变化情况进行了较为详细的分析，得出     

A case study on the coordination of last trains for the Beijing subway network

Passengers may make several transfers between different lines to reach their destinations in urban railway transit networks. Coordination of last trains in feeding lines and connecting lines at transfer stations is especially important because it is the last chance for many travellers to transfer. In this paper, a mathematical method is used to reveal the relationships between passenger transfer connection time (PTCT) and passenger transfer waiting time (PTWT). A last-train network transfer model (LNTM) is established to maximize passenger transfer connection headways (PTCH), which reflect last-train connections and transfer waiting time. Additionally, a genetic algorithm (GA) is developed based upon this LNTM model and used to test a numerical example to verify its effectiveness. Finally, the Beijing subway network is taken as a case study. The results of the numerical example show that the model improves five connections and reduces to zero the number of cases when a feeder train arrives within one headway’s time after the connecting train departed.     

信号交叉口车辆到达规律分析

信号交叉口是中断车流的重要结点,其车流到达规律的准确描述是交叉口信号控制设计的重要影响因素。信号交叉口车流的到达规律是随机且多样的,并服从一定的统计规律。本文对信号交叉口到达车流的到达时间间隔的统计分析进行拟合,发现信号交叉口车流的到达规律与其变异系数的平方存在耦合关联,并得出结论如下:对数正态分布的拟合范围为0.8874~0.9904,平均拟合度高达0.9489,拟合效果最佳;伽马分布的拟合度范围为0.5352~0.9449,平均的拟合度为0.8056,拟合效果次之;威布尔分布拟合度在0.1997~0.8991之间,总体波动较大,平均的拟合度为0.616;正态分布拟合范围为0.2585~0.6671,平均拟合度为0.6252;指数分布拟合度范围是0.0365~0.4077,平均拟合度是0.2317,拟合效果最差。     

公交乘客等车时间分布的估算方法研究

针对高频公交服务,以给定车头时距作为已知条件,作者研究了乘客等车时间分布的估算方法,该方法为评价公交服务可靠性奠定基础。依据乘客等车时间分布的定义,通过分析乘客等车时间概率密度,得到了以车头时距为自变量的乘客等车时间概率密度曲线,并以此为基础推导出乘客等车时间分布的一种估算方法。通过分析单车头时距内的乘客等车时间分布以及对应的载客量比例,推导出乘客等车时间分布的另一种估算方法。作者介绍了两种估算方法的应用方法,并以一个实例进行说明。两种估算方法的计算结果相差很小,用户可根据自己的需求选择合适的方法。     

基于单路口感应控制系统的单位绿灯延时研究

在单路口感应控制系统中,单位绿灯延时对于感应信号控制的效率起决定性的作用,合理的单位绿灯延时可以消除为等待少数车辆而浪费的绿灯时间,使绿灯延时高效运行,从而可提高通行能力,降低延误,减少车辆追尾等交通事故的发生．比较了两种单位绿灯延时模型,并通过仿真分析给出对于感应控制系统比较有用的结论．