基于随机森林结合前向序列选择算法的铁路隧道防水板检测数据关键影响因素识别北大核心

针对参数特征复杂度高的铁路产品,提出了一种基于随机森林(RF)结合前向序列选择(SFS)算法的铁路产品检验检测数据关键影响因素识别方法,以辅助基于经验的识别方法。创新使用RF-SFS算法,将其应用于铁路隧道防水板检验检测数据关键影响因素的识别研究。根据多年铁路隧道防水板检测数据,建立RF模型,获得了影响铁路隧道防水板检测结果的特征关键性评分序列。随后,结合SFS方法得出关键性评分序列的阈值,将排名前6位的影响因素识别为关键特征,模型的预测能力达到99.98%。为验证关键特征识别方法的有效性,对比分析3种模型在使用不同特征子集时的预测能力。当仅选用关键特征时,3种模型的预测能力均达到最佳,加入冗余特征后模型的预测能力逐渐降低。     

公共自行车使用时空特性挖掘及租还需求预测

基于宁波市公共自行车刷卡数据、POI(Point of Interest)数据、气象和空气质量等数据，从数据驱动视角，深入挖掘公共自行车使用的时空特征及站点租还车需求预测。在时间上，采用KMeans算法，将站点聚为5类，探讨各类站点的时变需求规律及影响因素；在空间上，提出基于POI 数据的站点用地类型识别方法，将站点分为居住类、交通设施类、办公类和商业休闲类。构建以 15，30，60 min 为间隔，以租还车需求为目标变量的随机森林预测模型，并与常用的 BP (Back Propagation)神经网络、K最近邻方法进行比较。结果表明，随机森林模型的精度更高，适用性更强。以30 min为间隔的站点租还车需求预测精度最高，考虑站点土地利用类型后能有效提高模型的预测精度。本文结果可作为未来站点平衡调度的依据并推广应用于共享单车系统，为改善服务水平提供技术和理论支撑。     

城市中心区停车设施供应研究

随着城市化进程的加快，我国机动车拥有量及道路交通量急剧增加，停车问题已成为诸多城市的难题。本文在分析了城市中心区停车设施供应的影响因素的基础上，建立了停车设施供应与停车需求关系模型以及停车设施供应与路网容量平衡关系模型，对如何合理确定城市中心区停车泊位供应量进行了探讨，并在浙江省台州市滨海工业城启动区块的停车设施供应规划中得到应用，可为我国城市中心区静态交通设施规划提供借鉴。     

Statistical Approaches to Mapping QTL of Dynamic Traits

Dynamic traits are those that change with timein the development process of life or other quanti-tative factor (e. g. environmental condition).These traits also are called infinite-dimensionalcharacters by Kirkpatrick and Heckman[1]andfunction-valued traits by Pletcher and Geyer[2], be-cause they can be expressed as a function of someindependent and continuous variables. Dynamictraits are collected at many time points during thecourse of life. Therefore, studies of dynamic traitsare regarded…     

交通需求OD估计与预测的现状研究分析

目前，对于静态OD矩阵估计问题已经有很多研究者，对于动态OD前沿的研究工作则非常有限。关于对OD估计和预测的研究可分为封闭网络和开放网络。介绍了研究封闭网络的Bell，Van der Zijpp，Chang and Wu和Chang and Tao等人的方法，以及研究开放网络动态估计的3种方法，即Cascetta、Okutani、Ashok和Ben—Akiva等人的方法。并指出可以将OD估计问题陈述为具有不同误差特性、多个来源的不同类型信息的综合性和一致性的结合体，此联合估测就是经济计量学的混合估计的问题。     

基于模糊可靠性理论的高速线材轧辊优化设计研究

工作时受交变应力的作用,高速线材轧辊断裂问题时有发生.文章利用模糊可靠性理论,探讨在随机变量和模糊变量组合时轧辊的模糊可靠性设计方法.设计实例和生产实践证实了该方法具有优化设计的效果,使轧辊使用寿命显著提高.     

超灵便型多用途船舶的开发和设计

主要介绍了灵便型多用途船舶市场需求的趋势以及其设计理念。这一新理念的3万吨级多用途船被命名为"超灵便"型,4家中国船厂迄今收到了总共22艘该型船舶的订单,另有许多其他船舶公司表达了今后订购的意向。     

Aggregate expenditure elasticity for transport and communication in Australia

For the purpose of estimating Engel elasticity, one needs to find the best functional form among various alternatives. In this paper, a new function, which is called the double semi-log Engel function turns out to be the best functional form for the transport and communication items in Australia on the basis of the distance function (D²) criterion, and the non-nested hypothesis testing procedure. This function is then used to estimate total expenditure elasticity, and the percentage change in consumer demand due to changes in total expenditure and total expenditure inequalities; using the 1975–76 Household Expenditure Survey data. The results of the analyses demonstrate that transport and communication is a necessary item in Australia on the basis of two criteria, viz., its elasticity is not significantly greater than unity, and the percentage change in demand increases with a decrease of the total expenditure inequality [emphasised by Iyengar (I960)]. Policy implication of the analyses has also been discussed.     

Ramp meters on trial: Evidence from the Twin Cities metering holiday

Ramp meters in the Twin Cities have been the subject of a recent test of their effectiveness, involving turning them off for eight weeks. This paper analyzes the results with and without ramp metering for several representative freeways during the afternoon peak period. Seven performance measures: mobility, equity, productivity, consumers’ surplus, accessibility, travel time variation and travel demand responses are compared. It is found that ramp meters are particularly helpful for long trips relative to short trips. Ramp metering, while generally beneficial to freeway segments, may not improve trip travel times (including ramp delays). The reduction in travel time variation comprises another benefit from ramp meters. Non-work trips and work trips respond differently to ramp meters. The results are mixed, suggesting a more refined ramp control algorithm, which explicitly considers ramp delay, is in order.     

基于虚拟样机技术的机车车辆钢弹簧疲劳寿命研究

机车车辆在轨道上运行时,线路的不平顺及车轮的变形会使悬挂装置受到各种有害冲击。断裂和应力松弛是机车车辆钢弹簧最常见的失效形式,有研究证明弹簧断裂绝大部分都是因疲劳引起的。发生松弛失效的弹簧没有及时更换,会给列车的安全运行埋下隐患,引发严重的行车事故。运用多体动力学软件SIMPACK建立整车模型．提取弹簧随机载荷谱,通过疲劳分析软件FE—Safe对某电力机车二系悬挂钢弹簧进行随机疲劳寿命分析,对轨道车辆钢弹簧寿命预测及确定更换周期具有一定的工程实用价值。