Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

南沙龙穴造船基地水下大砂袋封涌施工

介绍南沙龙穴造船基地深水河涌水下大砂袋封截的施工经验。     

The association of the population recruitment of gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, with Mississippi River discharge

Gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, which constitutes a major industrial reduction fishery in the USA, spawn across the northern Gulf of Mexico with a focus of spawning about the Mississippi Delta. This species is estuarine dependent; adults spawn over the continental shelf and their larvae are transported, by mechanisms that are presently not well understood, to estuarine nursery areas. Larval gulf menhaden, along with some other surface oriented larval fishes, appear to aggregate along the Mississippi River plume front, while evidence of the ecological consequences of this aggregation in terms of the feeding, growth, and survival of larvae is ambiguous. On an annual scale, Mississippi River discharge is negatively associated with numbers of half year old recruits. Discharge of the Mississippi River and the population recruitment of gulf menhaden may be plausibly linked through the action of the river's plume and its front on the shoreward transport of larvae. Greater river discharge results in an expansive plume that might project larvae farther offshore and prolong the shoreward transport of larvae. An indirect, decadal scale, positive response of recruitment and river discharge is possible, but not certain. Recruitment became elevated after 1975 when river discharge increased and became highly variable. This response might owe to enhanced primary and secondary production driven by nutrient influx from the Mississippi River.     

区域港口建设项目投资风险预警管理系统研究

分析了我国当前区域港口建设中存在的问题,阐述了开展区域港口建设项目投资风险预警管理研究的意义,建立了区域港口建设项目投资风险预警管理系统的模型、预警指标体系及其评判方法,对珠江三角洲地区的港口建设管理提出了建议.     

长梁山隧道F26断层施工超前地质预报

研究目的：在隧道施工中,准确预报施工前方地质条件,尤其是区域断层的规模、性质和影响范围,将影响施工质量、工期与安全。研究方法：在采用针对性地质调绘、掌子面素描、综合物探、水文长期观测等综合方法基础上,进行相关性分析。研究结果：采用节理相关性预报断层在洞内的出现里程位置,并推导出相关公式。研究结论：经施工验证F26断层采用的综合超前预报技术是合理的、有效的;运用节理相关性分析方法,预报了断层在洞内的出现里程位置;地质超前预报应针对地质特点,选取相应的预测预报技术。     

区域性轨道交通线网规划评价指标体系探讨

区域性轨道交通线网评价与公路网、公交网络的评价体系存在一定不同。在分析了我国现有的区域性轨道交通线网规划评价体系的基础上,阐述了评价指标体系选取的原则及方法;通过对各项指标进行分析比较,定性和定量相结合,利用目标层次分类展开法,建立了一套适用于区域性轨道交通线网规划的综合评价指标体系。     

On the fresh balance of the Adriatic Sea

The long-term mean fresh water balance of the Adriatic Sea is studied by ananalysing evaporation, precipitation and river runoff. Evaporation is computed from May latent heat flux and by means of bulk formula. In the latter case two wind speed data sets are used, namely those from the NMC and May. The sea surface temperature is taken from a historical Adriatic data set, and the air temperature and relative humidity come from the NMC data set. Two precipitation data sets are considered, namely the Legates and Willmott climatology and a data set consisting of data measured at 62 rain-gauge stations located on the Adriatic coasts. Runoff contribution to the fresh water balance is estimated from the long-term average flow rates of 39 rivers and the horizontal distribution of salinity in the upper mixed layer.The spatial distribution of the fresh water balance, as well as of its components, is analysed by means of monthly objective maps, from which averages and standard deviations are computed. The results obtained from the different computations are not always univocal, particularly in the evaluation of Summer evaporation, and are affected by relatively large statistical errors. Significant spatial and seasonal variability occurs, with a noticeable fresh water gain along the coastline of the northern and middle basins, while small areas of fresh water loss are found in the middle and southern basins. Nevertheless, on an annual basis, the difference between the fresh water losses by evaporation and the gains by precipitation and runoff is clearly negative, indicating that, unlike the whole Mediterranean, the Adriatic Sea is generally a dilution basin.     

国外现代有轨电车外观设计分析

以法国海港城市马赛、丝织业中心里昂、香槟酒之都兰斯、澳大利亚文化和时尚之都墨尔本以及最新设计的概念型现代有轨电车为例,从地域文化展示、仿生设计、情感设计、城市环境融合、形式和技术之美5个方面对国外现代有轨电车的外观设计方法与实践进行分析,为体现我国各地文化和城市形象的现代有轨电车外观设计提供参考。     

轨道交通“捆绑式”开发的新模式

在分析地铁项目亏损的原因后,认为“捆绑式”开发已成为解决地铁可持续发展的必由之路。通过分析香港“地铁＋地产”的开发模式,提出香港模式有其成功所必须依赖的政策、法规、规划、地域等条件,这些条件是内地暂时无法具备也不能克隆的。根据广佛地铁的特点,尝试探索一条符合国情特征的捆绑式开发的新模式：“地铁＋地产＋产业园”。     

局域轨道交通系统规划编制思路和方法探讨——以上海市宝山区为例

宝山区作为上海市北部门户,要积极加强对外辐射和对内联系,推动上海大都市圈一体化协同发展,客观上需要进一步强化交通功能,完善综合运输体系,形成上海北部枢纽。从轨道交通市域线、市区线、局域线三个层次,对区内轨道交通系统规划编制思路、客流预测、线网规模、布局方案等进行了探讨,以期对区域总体规划编制提供参考和借鉴。