The Movingo integrated ticket: seamless connections across the mälardalen region of Sweden

ABSTRACT

The need for improved public transport (PT) ticketing in ever-growing deregulated PT markets has made well-designed integrated ticketing systems a priority area of intervention for PT service providers around the world. Yet, very little practical evidence of its impacts are reported in Sweden and in the world at large. The focus of this study was the impacts of the Movingo integrated ticketing scheme in terms of PT patronage, user satisfaction and the perceived quality of the ticketing set-up. Three travel surveys were conducted along the Stockholm-Uppsala route. Methods including logistic regression and correlated t-tests were used to analyse the samples. The findings suggest that the scheme made rail commuting more attractive resulting in an overall increase of about 24% in ticket sales with 3% – 15% car commuters reporting that they patronised PT services after the project. The scheme also resulted in increased rail commuter satisfaction. The overall perceived quality of the ticketing set-up did not however improve due to interoperability challenges. Service providers’ uncertainty about equitable distribution of revenue among the participating service providers, interoperability challenges and the lack of interest among most of the participating service providers to sell Movingo tickets are some issues to be addressed.     

面向新型混合交通流的智能交叉口网络布局优化

考虑网联自动驾驶车辆(Connected Autonomous Vehicle, CAV)应用先进的车联网与自动驾驶技术，可以采用智能交叉口的组织形式，大幅提升交叉口的通行效率，为降低CAV与人工驾驶车辆(Human-driven Vehicle, HV)混行条件下城市交通系统的整体出行成本，提出智能交叉口在城 市交通网络中的布局优化问题，建立数学优化模型并求解。首先，基于对两类车辆行驶特性的分析，建立混合用户均衡模型，描述CAV与HV的路径选择行为；其次，从交通规划者的角度，以系统最优为目标，整合混合用户均衡模型，建立面向新型混合交通流的智能交叉口网络布局优化模型，并利用改进的遗传算法求解；最后，选取Sioux-Falls交通网络作为案例分析，验证模型与算法的有效性，并研究CAV渗透率变化对优化结果的影响。研究表明，智能交叉口在城市路网中的合理规划极大地提高了新型混行场景下城市交通系统的出行效率，同时，大幅降低了由于网联自动 驾驶单方面技术优势带来的CAV与HV的出行效率差距，增进了出行公平性。     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

产业集群企业人群行为的博弈分析

产业集群的形成和成长是集群外企业不断人群的过程，企业人群的行为是一种博弈决策。文中运用博弈理论、期望理论和效用理论的基本原理，以效用期望投资收益为依据，构建出企业人群的两类博弈模型：基于期望投资收益和具有偏好性的企业人群博弈模型，推导出企业人群的集群临界欢迎概率函数。描述了集群市场对企业人群行为欢迎概率的影响因素、构成模型和变化趋势。指出企业人群的偏好性对产业集群欢迎程度的具有很大的弹性。     

关于规定曲率弯矩方程弯矩正负号的问题

阐明了曲率弯矩方程的物理概念及用此方程建立梁(柱)弯曲微分方程的思路,论述了在建立梁(柱)弯曲微分方程中规定弯矩正负号(简称这种规定)引起的问题:1)这种规定破坏了曲率弯矩方程所反映的物理概念及用曲率弯矩方程建立梁(柱)弯曲微分方程的思路;2)这种规定导致了梁(柱)截面内力矩与梁(柱)曲率正负号无关的错误概念;3)按这种规定建立梁(柱)弯曲微分方程须记住弯矩正负号的规定,与此种规定对应的坐标系,不考虑梁(柱)曲率的正负号等3条内容,否则得出错误结果。建议材料力学在阐述梁(柱)弯曲微分方程中删去这种规定,以避免上述问题。     

铁路货物运输的随机过程分析和及时送达概率估计

应用随机过程理论，分析铁路运输系统中货物及时送达的概率分布，得到货物运输延续时间的平均值，为实现用户要求的运到期限提供了合理保证，并可通过评估与货主商定的运到期限与实际货物送达时间误差的概率，来找到货物及时送达过程中的关键环节，改进货物送达流程。最后举例说明它的应用。     

船舶浮态计算方法及船舶浮态图谱

本文用化非线性问题为线性问题的线性化方法,对非线性隐式的船舶浮态方程组进行了数值解,并在深入研究的基础上提出了两种形式浮态图谱,以便能迅速而准确地确定船舶各种不同装载情况下的浮态。本文给出了五万吨油轮“西湖”号算例。     

城市轨道交通B型电动客车用户需求书规范化编制

介绍了研究B型电动客车用户需求书规范化的目的、主要内容以及关键技术内容的编制。该用户需求书可以满足我国不同城市对城市轨道交通B型电动客车的招标采购的要求。用户需求书中所列入的各项技术指标均达到国内B型电动客车的先进水平,适用于国内城市轨道交通B型电动客车最高运行速度范围为80~100km／h的招标采购,也可供最高运行速度大于100km／h的B型电动客车招标采购时参考。建议各业主单位在使用该范本时,根据各城市的实际情况、可行性研究报告、初步设计文件等需求进行必要的调整。     

基于随机Petri网的GSM-R双层网络建模与性能分析

利用随机Petri网,综合信道降质、链路中断、越区切换、灾害等因素,建立GSM-R的同站址网络与交织站址网络的故障模型,针对同站址与交织站址两种不同的网络结构,给出利用马尔可夫链求解可靠性与可用性的方法。通过马尔可夫链的有关概率分别计算:不同网络结构的可靠性;不同列车运行速度对应不同网络结构的可用性。分析计算结果表明:同站址网络的可靠性与可用性远高于交织站址网络,主要原因是同站址网络中一层基站业务中断时不会导致系统失效,交织站址网络中一层基站业务中断时,并联的另一层相邻两个基站均可以提供业务才不会导致系统失效。另外,同站址网络中越区切换速率较小,有效减小了列车越区切换对可靠性与可用性的影响。     

填石路堤原位抗剪试验研究

在路堤原位抗剪试验基础上，获取路堤原位抗剪强度指标内摩擦角φ和黏聚力C，以推滑平衡分析法为理论基础，提出4点基本假设，经过现场试验数据计算分析，论证了假设成立和推滑平衡分析法应用于填石路堤的正确性。