Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character. The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision problem of determining the most attractive alternative for a new fixed link between Denmark and Sweden – the so-called HH-connection. Applying the framework to the case study made it possible to address the decision problem from an economic, a strategic, and a sustainable point of view simultaneously. The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.     

Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

Valuing crowding in public transport: Implications for cost-benefit analysis

This paper investigates the valuation of crowding in public transport trips and its implications in demand estimation and cost-benefit analysis. We use a choice-based stated preference survey where crowding levels are represented by means of specially designed pictures, and use these data to estimate flexible discrete choice models. We assume that the disutility associated with travelling under crowded conditions is proportional to travel time. Our results are consistent with and extend previous findings in the literature: passenger density has a significant effect on the utility of travelling by public transport; in fact, the marginal disutility of travel time in a crowded vehicle (6 standing-passengers/m²) is 2.5 times higher than in a vehicle with available seats. We also compare the effects of different policies for improving bus operations, and the effect of adding crowding valuation in cost-benefit analysis. In doing that, we endogenise the crowding level as the result of the equilibrium between demand and supplied bus capacity. Our results indicate that important benefits may be accrued from policies designed to reduce crowding, and that ignoring crowding effects significantly overestimate the bus travel demand the benefits associated with pure travel time reductions.     

Ship service life extension considering ship condition and remaining design life

Reliable and continuous operation of ships is vitally important to the decision-makers. Driven by the rising cost of newbuilding ships, maintenance actions are needed on existing ships to ensure safe and enduring service beyond their initial design life. Extending ship service life can provide economic operating profit and promote sustainability. Meanwhile, ships during their extended service life may involve higher failure risk and additional maintenance expenditure. Therefore, a cost-benefit evaluation is imperative for determining the optimal duration of service life extension (SLE) and the associated maintenance actions. In this paper, a novel method for this purpose is proposed. Two cost-benefit indicators, benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and net present value (NPV) are used to optimize the duration of SLE. Using Bayesian updating, information on the remaining design life and the structural condition at the SLE decision is incorporated into the optimization process to better inform SLE decision-making. The proposed method is illustrated by a fatigue-sensitive very large crude carrier (VLCC) at both structural component and structural system levels.     

Going fast or going green? Evidence from environmental speed limits in Norway

This paper studies the impact of speed limits on local air pollution using a series of date-specific speed limit reductions in Oslo over the 2004–2011 period. We find that lowering the speed limit from 80 to 60 km/h reduces travel speed by 5.8 km/h. However, we find no evidence of reduced air pollution as measured next to the treated roads. Our estimates suggest an annual time loss of the speed limit reductions of 66 USD per affected vehicle. Our findings imply that policy makers need to consider other actions than speed limit reductions to improve local air quality.     

Energy consumption and cost-benefit analysis of hybrid and electric city buses

This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of hybrid and electric city buses in fleet operation. The analysis is founded on an energy consumption analysis, which is carried out on the basis of extensive simulations in different bus routes. A conventional diesel city bus is used as a reference for the CBA. Five different full size hybrid and electric city bus configurations were considered in this study; two parallel and two series hybrid buses, and one electric city bus. Overall, the simulation results indicate that plug-in hybrid and electric city buses have the best potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions. The capital and energy storage system costs of city buses are the most critical factors for improving the cost-efficiency of these alternative city bus configurations. Furthermore, the operation schedule and route planning are important to take into account when selecting hybrid and electric city buses for fleet operation.     

机车车辆继电器和接触器可靠性试验及其成本研究

传统的机车车辆电器可靠性概念局限于型式试验,脱离了可靠性的真正意义,没有量化的数据指标,认为提高机车车辆电器的可靠性,会大幅度增加产品成本,影响企业经济效益。分析铁路机车车辆电器可靠性研究的现状和必要性,介绍机车车辆继电器和接触器可靠性要求及试验方法,分析改进机车车辆电器可靠性成本和效益的关系。     

Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities,barriers and policy recommendations

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent a potentially disruptive yet beneficial change to our transportation system. This new technology has the potential to impact vehicle safety, congestion, and travel behavior. All told, major social AV impacts in the form of crash savings, travel time reduction, fuel efficiency and parking benefits are estimated to approach $2000 to per year per AV, and may eventually approach nearly $4000 when comprehensive crash costs are accounted for. Yet barriers to implementation and mass-market penetration remain. Initial costs will likely be unaffordable. Licensing and testing standards in the U.S. are being developed at the state level, rather than nationally, which may lead to inconsistencies across states. Liability details remain undefined, security concerns linger, and without new privacy standards, a default lack of privacy for personal travel may become the norm. The impacts and interactions with other components of the transportation system, as well as implementation details, remain uncertain. To address these concerns, the federal government should expand research in these areas and create a nationally recognized licensing framework for AVs, determining appropriate standards for liability, security, and data privacy.     

Workshop report - Social inclusion

The topic of social inclusion is now maturing in the Thredbo conference series, being viewed as an important consideration in many aspects of land transport, the benefits extending beyond the socially excluded targeted population. The social inclusion workshop included presentations on new empirical evidence on the value of providing those at risk of social exclusion with mobility options, and how this links to improvements in personal wellbeing, often through mediating influences such as social capital. Work was presented on the role of transport services specifically targeted to those at risk of exclusion, particularly taxi services and school bus services, as well as how to modify fare structures to maximise inclusion in an efficient, mature transport system. The value of Universal Design principles to groups both at risk of being excluded as well as the current travelling public, was shown. The workshop affirmed the importance of including these wider benefits of inclusion in cost-benefit evaluations of transport. The issue of how best to move knowledge into strategic and operational policy, and the transferability of both knowledge and policy between different countries and settings, was discussed. This paper concludes with suggestions arising from the workshop in relation to policy and research, as well as recommendations for Thredbo 12.