国际海事组织MEPC委员会第59次会议概览

国际海事组织下属的MEPC委员会第59次会议于2009年7月13日至17日在伦敦举行。本次会议对于MARPOL73/78公约的附则Ⅰ中油轮间海上转驳货油、残油（油泥）在船处理、为保护南极水域采取特殊措施的修正案分别获得通过和认可;附则VI中增加＂排放控制区域＂,＂挥发性有机化合物＂管理计划等提案也达到认可或通过。另外,涉及环保拆船、压载水处理,船舶噪声危害、人为因素、有害的船舶防污涂层等方面的提案都得到了认可和重视。对上述具体内容,文中进行了详细的归纳整理。     

海底油气外输管线的断裂和疲劳评定

以旅顺—大连间海底油气外输管线为例,依据英国标准BS7910对管线铺设过程的断裂及疲劳性能进行了ECA评估,得到了不同水深、不同缺陷形式和位置及不同错边量条件下管道焊接接头部位缺陷的断裂临界尺寸和使用寿命,为海底管线铺设工程中的焊接缺陷的验收和拒收提供了依据。     

在航船舶尾气无人机遥测技术研究与应用

为打好船舶大气污染防治攻坚战,落实交通运输部海事局"陆海空天"一体化海事监管体系建设方向,提升我国海洋、内河及环境情况复杂水域中在航船舶尾气监测的自动化水平,研究了小型化的船舶尾气嗅探传感器,利用无人机搭载嗅探传感器实时监测在航船舶尾气中的SO₂和CO₂浓度,依此反推船舶燃油的硫含量。选择对上海(排放控制区)关键水域的在航船舶开展实验测试,统计不同船长、不同水域的海船尾气监测结果,综合分析船舶的燃油行为,为海事执法提供新的技术手段;总结可推广应用船舶尾气遥测无人机先进技术监管模式,为我国船舶大气污染物排放控制区高效及精准监管树立样板。     

A two-stage optimization approach for sulphur emission regulation compliance

In this paper, we present a two-stage optimization model for the machinery system selection problem. The objective is to minimize total cost, while aggregated power requirement and emission regulations are constraining the problem. Future fuel prices are considered to be uncertain. From a set of alternatives, the machinery configuration providing the lowest total cost is found. Also design flexibility in terms of future reconfiguration possibilities is taken into account. The machinery selection for a 2000 TEU container vessel is used as an illustrative case. Five initial machinery concepts are considered: diesel machinery, diesel machinery with a scrubber system, dual fuel (DF) machinery, pure gas engines, and a DF ready machinery. There is also a set of reconfiguration possibilities available for each alternative. From solving the case study, DF machinery is found optimal, while pure gas machinery is close to equally good. By solving the problem with deterministic fuel prices, the value of flexibility is not properly accounted for, resulting in an unreasonably high total cost for the flexible machinery alternatives. This demonstrates the need for a decision support approach that explicitly handles future uncertainty, as the two-stage stochastic model presented in this paper does.     

Emission control areas: More or fewer?

As the global sulphur limit implemented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the further development of sulphur emission reduction technologies, the effects of Emission Control Areas (ECAs) on reducing the sulphur emissions from ships will be reduced gradually. To explore the necessity of ECAs in the near future, this paper introduces the fictitious sulphur emission permit allocated to shipping carriers for our considered region. We propose an ECA location problem, which determines the location of ECAs in order to minimize the impact of sulphur emissions on human health, while satisfying the constraint on the fictitious sulphur emission permit. A mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed for our investigated problem. Numerical experiments are carried out by using our proposed model applied to China and Africa, where the sulphur emissions at different sites are estimated via the fuel consumption calculated by collecting data from liner carriers. Results show that, for the case of China, the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have a high probability for establishing ECAs. For the case of Africa, the Guinea Bay and South Africa have a high probability for establishing ECAs.     

运用知识发现工具激活被动数据库

作者对知识发现系统的输出提出了一种自动转换到主动数据库规则的结构。这一过程称为数据库模式精化。作者引入了一种新的规则分类方法来将规则分为语义完整性约束和概率规则,提出了一种转化为ECA规则的通用方法。     

Assessment of cost as a function of abatement options in maritime emission control areas

This paper assesses cost as a function of abatement options in maritime emission control areas (ECA). The first regulation of air pollutions from ships which came into effect in the late 1990s was not strict and could easily be met. However the present requirement (2015) for reduction of Sulfur content for all vessels, in combination with the required reduction of nitrogen and carbon emissions for new-built vessels, is an economic and technical challenge for the shipping industry. Additional complexity is added by the fact that the strictest nitrogen regulations are applicable only for new-built vessels from 2016 onwards which shall enter US or Canadian waters. This study indicates that there is no single answer to what is the best abatement option, but rather that the best option will be a function of engine size, annual fuel consumption in the ECA and the foreseen future fuel prices. However a low oil price, favors the options with the lowest capex, i.e. Marine Gas Oil (MGO) or Light Fuel Oil (LFO), while a high oil price makes the solutions which requires higher capex (investments) more attractive.     

The fleet renewal problem with regional emission limitations: Case study from Roll-on/Roll-off shipping

In this paper, the maritime fleet renewal problem (MFRP) is extended to include regional limitations in the form of emission control areas. The motivation for including this aspect is that strengthening of emission regulations in such areas is expected to be challenging for deep sea shipping in the years to come. In the proposed model, various means to cope with these stricter emission regulations are evaluated for new vessels, and the possibility of upgrading existing vessels with new emission reduction technology is introduced. We consider future fuel prices to be important for the problem, and have chosen to treat them as uncertain, and thus, a stochastic programming model is chosen. A fleet renewal problem faced by the liner shipping operator Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics, concerning whether to use low sulphur fuel or have an exhaust gas scrubber system installed to comply with sulphur regulation in emission control areas from 2015, is used as a case study. Furthermore, tests show that the savings from including the aspect of emission control areas in the MFRP are substantial.     

Real option analysis for environmental compliance: LNG and emission control areas

A wide array of technical and operational solutions is available to shipowners in order to comply with existing and upcoming environmental regulation within Emission Control Areas (ECAs). Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is a promising alternative since it offers potential cost savings in addition to ensuring compliance with ECA regulation. But investment to retrofit existing vessels to be able to use LNG carries significant upfront costs, and a high degree of uncertainty remains on the differential between the prices of LNG and conventional maritime fuels, as well as on the availability of LNG and the reliability of its supply chain. New technologies such as LNG inherently carry substantial risk and an ill-chosen investment strategy may have irreversible consequences that could jeopardise the future of the shipping company. One important question is whether interested owners should invest in LNG now to comply with ECA rules in 2015 and reap the benefits of lower LNG prices, or whether it would be advisable to wait until some of the uncertainty is resolved.While traditional discounted cash flow techniques are unable to account for the value of managerial flexibility linked, for example, to the possibility of deferring an investment, real option analysis can be used to analyse such cases. The paper discusses the optimal time for investment in LNG retrofit and takes specific account of the value of an investment deferral strategy versus the advantages obtainable from the immediate exploitation of fuel price differentials. Through the use of a real option model the paper shows that there is a trade-off between low fuel prices and capital expenses for investment in LNG retrofit. The development in LNG is critically dependent on its future price as well as the reduction in capital costs and ship retrofitting costs. In this respect, policy makers can play a critical role in providing support to advance technical knowledge, maintain LNG prices at favourable levels and in avoiding ambiguity on regulation.