GM(1,1)模型与指数模型在基桩沉降预测中的应用

以某大型基桩的沉降预测为例,利用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)与Aeax曲线模型进行基桩在外荷载作用下沉降量的预测。结果表明:两种模型对于呈指数变化规律的系统能获得较好的预测结果;两种模型对基桩累计沉降的预测符合工程实际,对各级荷载作用下的本级沉降预测不够合理。对两种模型关系的研究表明,两者有内在联系,都属指数曲线预测模型,且指数曲线Aeax预测模型比GM(1,1)模型应用起来更简单,方便。     

基于灰理论的港口吞吐量预测研究

港口吞吐量是港口建设的重要依据,有效预测港口吞吐量,才能使港口在海洋运输业中发挥重要作用。灰理论预测可以在少量信息、不完全数据的情况下,揭示港口吞吐量的发展变化特征,是研究港口吞吐量的有效工具。本文对上海港货物吞吐量进行研究的结果表明,应用灰理论对港口吞吐量建立灰色模型GM(1,1)进行短期预测,其结果有较高的实用价值。     

基于AD9856的通信信号源实现方法研究

用AD9856正交数字上变频器件，通过软件控制进行数亨信号处理得到两路正交信号作为AD9856的输入信号进行调制，处理操作过程借助于轵件来实现，因此程序操作简单可控．性能优越。     

地铁提速对减振垫浮置板轨道振动特征的影响分析

为研究地铁列车提速对减振垫浮置板轨道的振动特征的影响,对比分析地铁列车行车速度为80 km/h和120 km/h工况下减振垫浮置板轨道时域和频域的实测结果。分析结果表明:行车速度对减振垫浮置板轨道结构垂向位移的影响不大;行车速度为120 km/h的工况下钢轨、浮置板、隧道的振动加速度1/3倍频程的峰值较行车速度为80 km/h的工况下的峰值分别有6.2、2.8、0.5 dB的增大;分频段分析各测点振动加速度综合振级,结果显示:在0~20 Hz与20~80 Hz频段内,只有钢轨的振动加速度综合振级增长超过5%,浮置板与隧道振级变化均小于2.5%,在80~120 km/h速度范围内,行车速度的提高对减振垫浮置板轨道隧道振动的影响并不明显。     

惯导系统初始对准自适应参数选取法研究

平台式惯导系统的初始对准,为进入导航状态提供必要的初始条件,主要的性能指标是对准精度和时间。本文提出了一种新的变频带对准法的三阶调平系统,在对准过程中,系统的带宽能适应调平过程中信噪比的变化,从而使性能达到最优,经理论分析和仿真研究表明,这种新方法比经典方法,调平速度快而且提高了水平陀螺测漂及方位角的估值的精度。     

On the numerical accuracy of the prediction of resistance coefficients in ship stern flow calculations

This article presents a study on the accuracy of the numerical determination of the friction and pressure resistance coefficients of ship hulls. The investigation was carried out for the KVLCC2 tanker at model- and full-scale Reynolds numbers. Gravity waves were neglected, i.e., we adopted the so-called double-model flow. Single-block grids with H–O topology were adopted for all the calculations. Three eddy viscosity models were employed: the one-equation eddy viscosity and the two-equation models proposed by Menter and the TNT version of the two-equation k-ω model. Verification exercises were performed in sets of nearly geometrically similar grids with different densities in the streamwise, normal, and girthwise directions. The friction and pressure resistance coefficients were calculated for different levels of the iterative error and for computational domains of different size. The results show that on the level of grid refinement used, it is possible to calculate the viscous resistance coefficients in H–O grids that do not match the ship contour with a numerical uncertainty of less than 1%. The differences between the predictions of different turbulence models were larger than the numerical uncertainty; however, these differences tended to decrease with increases in the Reynolds number. The pressure resistance was remarkably sensitive to domain size and far-field boundary conditions. Either a large domain or the application of a viscous–inviscid interaction procedure is needed for reliable results. This work was presented in part at the International Conference on Computational Methods in Marine Engineering—MARINE 2007, Barcelona, June 3–4, 2007.     

基于BP人工神经网络的滑坡预测分析

文章以汶川地震引发的滑坡为研究对象,以震中距、地震烈度、坡度、前缘高程、坡高和岩性等影响坡体稳定性的因素为切入点,利用BP人工神经网络对实际坡体的稳定性进行了预测分析。结果表明,BP人工神经网络方法能有效预测坡体的稳定情况。     

Airport privatization in congested hub–spoke networks

This paper investigates the airport privatization issue. One congested hub and two linked local airports serve symmetric hub carriers. Passengers valuate the congestion delay cost and benefit from greater frequencies. The government considers privatizing either the hub or local airports. We find that in each privatizing scenario, welfare-maximizing public airport(s) set a charge below their operating costs in order to fully coordinate the high charge of privatized airport(s). If this fiscal deficit is not allowed, each scenario causes distortion. Interestingly, the distortion—and hence welfare losses—in privatizing a hub are smaller (larger) than those in privatizing both local airports when both passengers’ valuations are small (large); this is exactly the case when privatized local airports are strategic substitutes (complements). We also surprisingly find that retaining the hub airport as public and privatizing one or both local airports achieves the same market outcomes. We further find that if all airports are privatized, welfare becomes worse than the other scenarios; the hub airport charges lower (higher) prices than local airports when both local airports are strategic substitutes (complements).     

Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

时频分析在宽带信号检测中的应用研究

该文以时频分析中最典型的Wigner Ville分布在宽带信号检测中的应用展开讨论 ,与传统的处理方法进行比较 ,着重突出了其时频特征分离的特性。对比匹配滤波器进行了宽带确知信号的检测 ,指出基于互Wigner Ville分布的检测方法能够达到匹配滤波器的检测效果。在此基础上提出了采用时变滤波的改进方法 ,最后讨论了信号时宽、带宽对检测性能的影响。