国外海洋结构物安全性评估技术

通过对国外海上结构物安全性评估模式、评估实例及评估动向的调研,探究国外在以海上石油/燃气作业平台、浮式机场以及浮式风力发电装置为对象的海洋结构物安全性评估理念、思路及方法。     

Risk-identification-based hybrid method for estimating the system reliability of existing jacket platforms under fire

This paper proposes a risk-identification-based hybrid method for estimating the system reliability of steel jacket structures under fire.The proposed method starts with risk identification;according to the results of hazard identification and Dow’s fire and explosion index(F&EI) methodology,the most dangerous hazard sources are determined.In term of each equipment layout in steel jacket structures,fire load is imposed and elasto-plastic analysis is performed.According to the deformed state of steel jacket structures,the weakest failure mode of steel jacket structures is identified.In order to know the effect on ultimate bearing capacity of the offshore structural system,a series of elasto-plastic analyses are performed in which single failure element contained in the weakest failure mode is removed from the whole offshore platform structural system.Finally,the failure function of the steel jacket structure is generated and the failure probability of the steel jacket structure system is estimated under fire by genetic algorithm via MATLAB program.     

浅水干式沉箱水下生产系统爆炸风险分析

浅水干式沉箱水下生产作为一种全新海上油气田开发模式，为浅水受限海域开发提供科学的解决方案。采用危险源辨识(Hazard Identification, HAZID)分析，识别干式沉箱水下方案的危险因素。引入定量爆炸风险分析，对干式沉箱潜在的烃类气体泄漏及爆炸风险进行分析。浅水干式沉箱水下生产系统最大爆炸超压为0.017 8 bar,对应累计概率为2.78×10⁷/a,从风险角度来看，爆炸超压值和概率在可接受范围内。分析方法可准确评估浅水干式沉箱水下生产系统各设施的风险水平，研究内容可为干式沉箱防爆设计及运维阶段的人员救生、逃生工作提供参考依据。