Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Development of Green-Naghdi models with a wave-absorbing beach for nonlinear, irregular wave propagation

Two-dimensional and three-dimensional Green-Naghdi (GN) models equipped with a numerical wave-absorbing beach have been developed to simulate nonlinear, regular, and irregular wave propagation. The numerical beach is introduced near the downstream boundary to absorb outgoing waves. An appropriate amount of numerical damping and an appropriate length of numerical beach are investigated using numerical experiments. The results show that the GN models with a numerical beach work very well in simulating wave propagation in water in a small computational domain.     

路段动态特征中的交通组成因素研究

基于对交通流建模过程中将车型单一考虑为标准小汽车,忽略了现实交通量中车型的不同构成,本文通过对不同车型的动力特性进行标定,将其特性反映在跟车模型与车道变换模型中,并且利用交通仿真技术,分析了交通量构成对路段行程时间、车速、延误等动态特性指标的影响。     

Influential vectors in fuel consumption by an urban bus operator: Bus route,driver behavior or vehicle type?

Energy costs account for an important share of the total costs of urban and suburban bus operators. The purpose of this paper is to expand empirical research on bus transit operation costs and identify the key factors that influence bus energy efficiency of the overall bus fleet of one operator and aid to the management of its resources.We estimate a set of multivariate regression models, using cross-section dataset of 488 bus drivers operating over 92 days in 2010, in 87 routes with different bus typologies, of a transit company operating in the Lisbon’s Metropolitan Area (LMA), Rodoviária de Lisboa, S.A.Our results confirm the existence of influential variables regarding energy efficiency and these are mainly: vehicle type, commercial speed, road grades over 5% and bus routes; and to a lesser extent driving events such as: sudden longitudinal decelerations and excessive engine rotation. The methodology proved to be useful for the bus operator as a decision-support tool for efficiency optimization purpose at the company level.     

车务可视化信息系统设计与实现

车务可视化信息系统通过三维模型及虚拟漫游的展现形式,将铁路运行及运营的动态信息进行集成和柔性展示,实现旅客服务信息及运输管理相关数据的整合,通过可视化的展现方式既方便旅客及管理人员,又充分展示铁路信息化建设的成果。     

Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes for uncertainty modeling in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data

Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle devices). Despite its rather wide spatial coverage, crowdsourced speed data also brings very important challenges, such as the highly variable measurement noise in the data due to a variety of driving behaviors and sample sizes. When not properly accounted for, this noise can severely compromise any application that relies on accurate traffic data. In this article, we propose the use of heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGP) to model the time-varying uncertainty in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data. Furthermore, we develop a HGP conditioned on sample size and traffic regime (SSRC-HGP), which makes use of sample size information (probe vehicles per minute) as well as previous observed speeds, in order to more accurately model the uncertainty in observed speeds. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic data from Copenhagen, we empirically show that the proposed heteroscedastic models produce significantly better predictive distributions when compared to current state-of-the-art methods for both speed imputation and short-term forecasting tasks.     

改进的道路交通安全灰色聚类评价方法

传统的灰色聚类评价方法在确定灰类白化值时,由于受到样本数据的约束,使得评价只是在样本范围内进行比较,没有真正达到评价的目的。针对这一不足,对传统的灰色聚类评价方法进行改进,通过确立合理有效的评价指标体系,并通过相关规范标准确定灰类白化值,改变传统方法确立灰类白化值的模式,以获得一个更加合理的评价标准,使评价结果更加准确、合理。改进的灰色聚类评价方法有理论依据、算法简单、可操作性强,评价结果能更好的反映道路交通安全状况。将该方法用于3个城市的道路交通安全评价,取得了良好的效果。     

联合站游离水脱水器数学建模与应用

结合原油物性的复杂性和多变性,讨论了建立游离水脱除模型的6个假设条件,建立了沉降分离模型,分析了影响水的密度、黏度及原油的密度的主要因素,给出温度变化对上述参数影响的计算公式。对建立的数学模型进行了计算应用,并分析了产生误差的原因,提出了改进意见。     

强迫布鲁塞尔振子相图的研究

针对强迫布鲁塞尔振子模型的Ｆａｒｅｙ序列与Ｍ．Ｓ．Ｓ序列进行了扩大区域的研究，表明单峰映中看成圆映象的近似，并建立了圆映象的相图，单峰映象的相图及符号动力学间的关系。     

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为了适应经济发展，我国许多城市加快了轨道交通的建设步伐。私营公司与政府签订合作协议，共同参与运营管理，这打破了以往一家运营商的垄断局面。如何在保证高质量的运营效率的同时，兼顾各家运营商的收益分配，运费清分的研究显得十分重要。本文分析了影响清分的主要因素和原则，建立有效路径选择模型和基于概率的多路径选择模型。采用改进的遍历算法以保证有效路径集的完整性。利用c++程序计算出各条路径的分担比例和各家运营商的清分比例，给出了提高清分比例的研究结论和建议。