The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

融资租赁船舶所有权登记

从国际船舶融资的角度看,缺少船舶融资租赁权登记规定的船舶登记制度,是不利于跨国船舶融资租赁的。我国《船舶登记条例》中有关光船租赁权登记制度的基本精神和具体做法可为船舶融资租赁权登记制度提供有益借鉴。但仍存在一些不足,笔者试着从这方面提出若干建议。     

关于实践中应用倒签提单的法律探讨

对倒签提单的性质、应用进行了详细的论述,对目前我国倒签提单的实践应用及法律现状做了仔细分析并提出了自己的观点。     

租约与战争风险

随着恐怖分子对美国的袭击及其后战争风险的加剧,战争风险问题已成为航运业的热门话题,船舶所有人除了要面对海上保险业中愈来愈苛刻的战争保险条款,更要面对租约中变化多端的战争条款。二战后,BIMCO推荐的各种标准战争条款(例如Voywar条款和Conwartime条款)已被广泛地采用;然而实践也表明,BIMCO标准的战争条款并不能涵盖所有的战争风险,作为船舶所有人若知道船舶将进入战区,对BIMCO标准战争条款的内容根据实际情况进行重新设计是必要的,但这要建立在对BIMCO标准战争条款仔细研究的基础上。本文将以BIMCO标准战争条款(Voywar1993和Conwartime1993)为基础,对几种常用的标准战争条款做一评析和比较。     

BIMCO化学品运输航次租船合同2008范本评析

波罗的海国际海事协会30年前就起草了标准化学品运输航次租船合同,供航运界参考使用。波罗的海国际海事协会随后在1992年进行修改,修订后的租船合同代码为BIM-CHEMVOY。2006年波罗的海国际海事协会单证委员会为应对化学品行业结构变化以及法律法规的新规定,再次对合同范本进行修订。2008年11月推出新的化学品运输航次租船合同范本,即《2008年波罗的海国际海事协会化学品航次租船合同》,代号为＂BIMCHEMVOY2008＂。本文就该标准合同格式的主要内容做出评析。     

基于随机机会约束规划的班轮联盟 舱位租赁最优分配

面对持续低迷的航运市场和激烈的市场竞争,各大集装箱班轮公司通过组建联盟 来共享舱位资源,降低其系统成本,增加市场竞争力.舱位租赁是联盟合作的最基础形式,研究 该模式下的舱位资源最优分配具有很大实际意义.本文在考虑航运市场不确定需求的基础上, 研究了班轮联盟舱位租赁最优分配问题,构建了1 个班轮联盟舱位租赁最优分配模型,并运用 随机机会约束规划的方法,将其应用到班轮联盟舱位租赁分配决策中.结果表明,本文提出的 方法和模型能够有效地对班轮联盟系统舱位进行协同配置,研究结果与实际情况相符,检验 了方法和模型的有效性与实用性.     

Effect of risk preference on the valuation of time charter contracts with extension options

ABSTRACT

The literature on valuation of time charter contracts and real options in shipping generally relies on the complete markets hypothesis and the risk-neutrality of agents. However, these assumptions fail completely in some shipping market segments. This study proposes a numerical approach—based on discounting the certainty equivalent payoff at the risk-free rate—which incorporates the agent’s risk preferences through an exponential utility function. The method comprises an iterative Monte Carlo nested simulation with the real probability measure. This method is applied to a case of Suezmax tankers. The stochastic evolution of the time charter rates is modelled as a geometric mean-reverting process. The case study supports the applicability of the proposed method and evidences that the effect of risk preference may be significant, mainly for more risk-averse agents. Although the method involves intensive computation, it has the benefits of theoretical ease and flexibility, which could encourage utilisation by practitioners.     

浅议航次租约仲裁条款并入提单的生效要件问题

承运人为保护自己利益,实践中常在提单上添加一个并入条款,写明要把航次租船合同中的仲裁条款并入进该提单,以约束提单背书转让后的非承租人的提单持有人。我国目前对于仲裁条款并入提单的生效要件问题没有明确规定,中国法院在这一问题上的实践差异也很大,中国货方在货损后也就因此常常不能得到及时救济。本文通过分析航次租约中的提单性质,明确了提单在承运人和非承租人的提单持有人之间是作为一种法律拟制的特殊合同存在;对航次租约仲裁条款并入提单的生效要件提出了意见,对于中国货方如何避免仲裁并入条款的不利影响提出了一些可行性建议,并分析了我国立法和司法机关为保护我国提单持有人的利益可采取的措施。     

浅议船舶留置权

我国民法上对留置权的规定较为详细,但在船舶留置权方面,由于《海商法》自身的特殊性,使其与民法上的留置权存在一定差异。本文就船舶留置权在救助方的行使、留置权的取得以及光船租赁下的船舶留置权问题展开讨论并提出自己的观点。     

定期租船合同下最后航次的法律分析

结合我国《海商法》、《合同法》及英国判例,对定期租船合同下的合法最后航次和非法最后航次的含义和法律后果等做出分析,并提出了法律条文的修改建议。