Total cost analysis: An alternative to benefit-cost analysis in evaluating transportation alternatives

This paper explains the theory in support of total cost analysis (TCA) to compare transportation system alternatives. The full costs of each alternative are first aggregated, including travel time costs and monetizable environmental and social costs. Many costs which are considered on the benefits side of the equation in benefit-cost analysis (BCA) as "cost savings" are brought over to the costs side. Total cost differences among alternatives are then traded off against their estimated non-monetized benefits or impacts, just as a consumer trades off product quality against cost before deciding which product he or she will buy. One advantage of TCA over traditional BCA is that the concept of "total cost" is more easily understood by the public and by political decision-makers than BCA concepts such as "net present worth", "benefit-cost ratio" and "internal rate of return". A second advantage is that there is no suggestion that all "benefits" have been considered; decision-makers are free to use their own value judgements to trade off total cost against non-monetizable social, environmental and economic impacts, just as they trade off quality and convenience against cost when purchasing goods and services in their roles as consumers. The TCA approach is demonstrated in this paper through a case study of two systemwide alternatives for the Baltimore, MD urban area.     

基于信息衰减的无源干扰作战效能研究

针对箔条干扰云团的作战效能问题，从信息衰减的角度出发，建立了基于雷达最大作用距离的衰减模型和基于发现概率的效费比模型，通过仿真实例验证了箔条走廊密度对雷达最大作用距离的定量关系，提出了箔条走廊干扰取得最佳效费比的方法，结果表明，合理设计箔条走廊密度和抛撒箔条数量，可以取得最佳的效费比，对箔条的实际应用有很强的实用价值。     

级配碎石基层沥青混凝土路面剩余寿命预测和经济性分析

对运营近两年的沥青混凝土路面实测路表弯沉,再利用现行公路沥青混凝土路面设计规范的设计弯沉计算公式计算该路面还可承受的累计标准轴载作用次数,以此预估路面的剩余寿命,从而对级配碎石基层十水泥稳定碎石底基层沥青混凝土路面进行了经济性分析.结果表明,在路面总厚度不增加较大的前提下,与原设计半刚性基层沥青混凝土路面相比,级配碎石基层沥青混凝土路面更经济.     

以可靠度为中心的动车组设备预防性维修策略

广泛应用于高速铁路动车组设备维修领域的等周期预防性维修策略不可避免地使动车组设备可靠度随着维修次数和服役里程的增加而降低。为了制定更加符合设备衰退规律的维修计划以改善设备的可靠度,采用混合式故障率演化模型动态决策动车组设备的预防性维修计划,更符合随服役里程增加设备的维修间隔呈递减趋势的实际情况。在此基础上,将非完美维修方式分为初级维修和高级维修2种,并引入效费比的经济性分析方式决策每一次维修的具体方法。算例分析结果表明,以可靠度为中心的预防性维修策略便于搜寻最优解,并且对于故障维修成本较高的设备应有更高的可靠度要求,尤其在设备运行周期的后半阶段,应加强对其采取预防性维修措施。此外,当故障维修成本低于非完美维修成本时,设备的维修策略倾向于以故障维修为主的维修策略,而非预防性维修策略。     

国外舰炮制导弹药的发展现状及特点分析

舰炮是海军水面舰艇的重要武器装备,在现代战争中执行多样化的使命任务。使用精确制导弹药可大幅提高作战效能、效费比和附带损伤,可以用更少的弹药达到更好的打击效果。本文综述了世界主要军工集团研究舰炮制导炮弹的现状,总结出舰炮制导炮弹的发展具有利用陆军制导炮弹成熟技术、从大口径到小口径全面发展、注重提高效费比、同步考虑现役舰炮的兼容发射等特点,使用制导炮弹的舰炮武器装备将能够更好地遂行对岸火力支援、打击海上目标、防空作战等多重使命任务。     

预防性养护措施费用效益分析中的用户费用

根据运用费用效益分析的原理,对沥青路面预防性养护技术进行研究;总结了预防性养护技术的费用效益分析过程和方法,对费用效益分析中的业主费用和用户费用的计算方法、用户费用组成及其影响因素进行探讨.     

考虑了自身损耗的舰艇编队防空作战效能研究

防空作战是舰艇编队抗击空中目标,保卫己方舰艇的重要手段;防空作战效能作为体现编队防空作战能力的重要指标,应以防空作战中舰艇的自身损耗为基础,以编队对空中目标的毁伤能力为主要方面来综合评判编队防空作战效能。文章从编队对来袭空中目标的毁伤能力、舰艇损伤程度、弹药消耗量及人员伤亡程度四个方面对编队防空作战效能进行研究;为客观、全面的研究编队防空作战效能提供了方法。