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1.
ABSTRACTThe economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThe advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics. 相似文献
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针对影响现状公路交通特征参数较多且各指标之间又具有相关性的实际特点,应用模糊数学基本原理建立关系矩阵,对铁岭市县乡公路网进行综合评价。 相似文献
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通过信息论的度量方法,结合海上舰艇编队的实际装备,建立了信息战效能评估的量化模型,分析了敌我双方信息对抗对信息战效能的影响.该模型可用于海军信息战仿真和评估. 相似文献
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基于层次灰色模型的铁路技术创新绩效综合评价 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
运用技术创新基本理论,结合铁路技术创新实际,从效益(经济、社会)增长、市场状态(市场份额、市场营销)改善和创新主体素质(技术装备水平、管理水平)提高3个方面建立了评价铁路技术创新绩效的多级指标体系。将层次分析法(AHP)和灰色系统理论结合起来建立了层次灰色评价模型(HGM),运用该模型对铁路技术创新绩效分别从整体和分项进行了综合评价,得出:铁路技术创新绩效绩优度为“一般”,其主要原因在于铁路运输市场状态改善中市场份额扩大程度较低。实证分析结果表明:改进层次灰色评价法(层次灰色评价模型)为一种评价铁路技术创新绩效的有效方法。 相似文献
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火箭助飞鱼雷对潜攻击效能评估分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用经典的WSEIAC方法,详细分析火箭助飞鱼雷对潜攻击的效能评估体系,给出相应的数学模型及研究方法,最后得出几点启示。研究结果将对火箭助飞鱼雷对潜攻击效能仿真的研究有比较强的理论指导意义。 相似文献
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基于模糊因素的铁路旅客满意度的综合评价 总被引:11,自引:1,他引:10
从铁路旅客运输自身特性及旅客满意度评价特性两方面出发,通过分析铁路旅客满意度的影响因素,确定评估旅客满意度的评价指标体系。并采用模糊综合评价方法,建立了铁路旅客满意度模糊综合评价模型,结合铁路旅客问卷调查结果,对目前铁路旅客满意度水平进行了综合评价,从而为提高和改进铁路运输服务质量和服务水平、提高铁路运输的综合竞争力提供参考依据。 相似文献
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MBR(Membrane Bioreactor)工艺是将生物处理与膜分离技术相结合而成的一种高效污水处理新工艺。此文就其在车站站房污水回用工程领域的应用进行了经济分析和比较,结果表明,MBR工艺比传统的中水处理工艺具有更强的竞争力。 相似文献