世界航运人才需求与中国外派海员预测

根据世界航运人才的需求状况,利用航运经济增长模型,测算出2010年世界航海人才的需求量,并运用多种方案预测出2010年中国外派航海人员的数量,以此为中国有关高校的航运人才的培养和相关国际人才中介服务公司的发展提供依据。     

三次映射的全局分叉与浑沌

本文研究了一维三次映射ｘ→Ｆλ（ｘ）＝ｘ＾３－λｘ的全局分叉与浑沌。证明了当λ＞１＋３√２／２时，存在一个Ｃａｎｔｏｒ集。对任何的ｎ≥３，Ｆ＾ｎλ至少产生两次鞍结分叉。每次鞍结分叉后，又有两对称的周期培化序列产生。各位化序列发生的次序十分复杂，但均有相同的Ｆｅｉｇｅｎｂａｕｍ数。同宿和异宿分叉导致了多个不同的浑沌集的形成。     

2020年世界船舶市场评述与2021年展望

回顾了2020年世界经济、航运、造船市场,并对2021年船舶市场进行展望。2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,全球经济整体呈现负增长,导致航运各细分市场情况迥异,除集运市场年底火热外,其他市场均处于低迷状态。新船交付量整体大幅回落,与去年同比减少约31%,市场出现大面积撤单现象,仅海工市场基本面向好。新船建造市场受疫情影响,与2019年同期相比下跌约11%,散货船是今年交付量中唯一呈现增长的船型。2021年预计世界经济同比大幅反弹,航运市场需求将强于供给,市场形势总体将优于2020年;同时,考虑到疫情对市场的影响效应短期持续,预计世界船舶市场将逐步趋于理性,主要船型的新船订单量将朝着长期均衡方向逐步恢复增长,并且绿色和智能依旧是未来的大方向。     

考虑多人相互影响的舰船通道最短路径规划

将时间维引入既定舰船通道网络,把考虑多人相互影响的动态最优路径规划问题转化为时间依赖网络中的最优路径搜索问题。首先,论文的算法为所有人员随机生成走行路径,为了预测网络中的弧(路段)的走行时间,按人员速度从慢到快的顺序依次计算并记录人员到达路径中的各路段首节点的时刻,先记录到的人员将成为后记录到的人员的动态障碍。然后,将遗传算法与网络中弧的走行时间预测方法相结合,借助遗传算法的个体多样性天然地解决了人员走行任意性问题,因而获得了全局动态最优路径算法,并仿真计算了两人以及三人的最短时间路径;经与不考虑人员间相互影响时获得的最优路径相比较,论文的算法获得了人员遇到障碍时(或跟行或绕行)的最优走行路径。最后,借助时间依赖网络中的最优路径充要条件定理,说明了算法的有效性。     

支线集装箱船整船强度和疲劳有限元分析

在分析UR S11A和S34生效后的集装箱船整船屈服、屈曲要求的基础上,以1艘支线集装箱船为对象,计算得到目标船整船结构各个计算工况下的应力分布,完成整船屈服、屈曲强度评估和疲劳筛选及评估,分析发现支线集装箱船艏、艉非货舱区域结构和货舱区域的横向结构,以及整船重点区域的疲劳问题不容忽视.在设计时,对上述区域结构应重点关...     

Sea Cucumber Moratorium and Livelihood Diversity in Papua New Guinea

Livelihood diversity factors such as flexibility within fisheries, geographical mobility, reallocation of fishing effort into the broader economy, and the non-material benefits that fisheries provide are important areas of research in marine policy. We use two small-scale fisheries related socio-economic surveys of communities in the Tigak Islands of Papua New Guinea. The first conducted 5 years before a ban on the harvesting of sea cucumbers was imposed and the second from the present day, 5 years after the initiation of the ban—with the objectives of exploring changes in household fishing strategies (types and numbers of species targeted) and to identify any important socioeconomic factors that help explain those changes. Fishing's contribution to total household income has increased significantly (p = 0.019) up from 61% in 2004 to 73% in 2014 with the percentage of female residents living in a household now positively and significantly (p = 0.018) associated with fishing income. The average number of species categories targeted per household increased insignificantly while households with more women are significantly (p = 0.018) less likely to target more species than households with more men. Moreover, customary management practices contribute to this difference. Together, these results show that households are not worse off financially 5 years after the ban on sea cucumber harvesting and that gendered seascape use has implications for the role of livelihood diversity as a marine policy tool.     

2020全球限硫令对海员权益的影响

2020全球限硫令的推出,对各方均造成了极大的影响。为确保海员权益不受损害,文章结合国内外资料以及对部分海员的访谈,在国内首次系统分析了2020全球限硫令的实施对海员在人身安全、职业健康、工作休息、工资报酬、责任追究等五方面影响;并首次从船东和主管机关的角度分别提出了履行2020全球限硫令时保护海员权益的建议,即船东要加强培训、确保船舶配员、关注海员职业健康和工资报酬,船旗国和港口国主管机关要加强海员权益保护检查、确保提供合格燃料油以及给予海员足够的宽容和理解等。     

Local Level Fisheries Management in Diani-Chale,Kenya: Current Status and Future Directions

The current regime of fisheries management and the prospects for attaining a more locally oriented, collaborative system of fisheries management in Diani-Chale, Kenya are examined. At present fisheries management in Diani-Chale is characterized by diminished government capacity for regulation, weakened local institutions, and little ability to exert control over the use of fisheries. Local level management requires the development and use of local institutions that can govern the use of fishery resources. The fish landing sites used by fishers and their associated fishing grounds were identified to be at the appropriate level for resolving fishery management issues. A more formal role for these entities, the clarification of fishing ground tenure and access rights, and support for the development and enforcement of local fishing rules can further local management. The socioeconomic condition of fishers, their fear of losing landing sites, and the continued perception of the imposition of a marine reserve pose barriers to initiatives seeking to further local level management.     

Marine Protected Area Costs as “Beneficial” Fisheries Subsidies: A Global Evaluation

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are now generally accepted as important tools in the protection of coastal biodiversity. It is also likely that they play a positive role in enhancing fisheries. Yet currently, less than 1% of the global oceans are protected, although international agreements have targets ranging from 10–30% coverage. Despite its minuscule size, we consider the current MPA “network” to be beneficial to fisheries, and its running or maintenance cost, therefore, to be a positive contribution to the sustainability of fisheries, or a “beneficial” subsidy (“harmful” subsidies enhance fishing capacity and effort). A method was derived from data in Balmford et al. (PNAS, 101: 9694–9697) to estimate the annual cost of maintaining MPAs as a function of their size, and of the degree of development of the country in question. We provide national costs of the 53 countries that jointly contribute 95% of global fisheries catch and, assuming that this type of subsidy, in a given country, cannot exceed 15% of the ex-vessel value of its fisheries catches, estimated a global MPA subsidy to fisheries of 870 million US$. Given that total subsidies to fisheries currently range from 30–34 billion US$ annually (without MPA costs), this amounts to only 2.5–2.8% of total subsidies to fisheries being devoted explicitly to the maintenance of the biodiversity that sustains them.     

大型汽车滚装船横向挠曲强度全船有限元分析

大型汽车滚装船（PCTC）自身结构的特殊性和横向挠曲强度的关键性，对其进行横向挠曲强度全船有限元分析十分必要。以8000车大型汽车滚装船为研究对象，采用通用软件MSC／PATRAN建立有限元模型．按照ClassNK规范进行载荷的选取和施加，最终得到了横向挠曲强度全船有限元分析结果。对大型汽车滚装船挠曲强度的直接计算有一定的指导作用。