Resilience of Touristic Island Beaches Under Sea Level Rise: A Methodological Framework

This contribution addresses the need for a simple model for managers to employ when planning strategies for the management of touristic beaches under sea level rise. A methodological framework was developed and tested in two Aegean archipelago islands (Lesvos and Rhodes, Greece). The scheme can represent the status of touristic island beaches, based on easily obtained variables/indicators and projections of beach erosion/retreat under different scenarios of mean sea level rise (MSLR) and extreme events. Information on beach geomorphological characteristics, environmental setting, water quality, management, and services (such as those used in the “Blue Flag” classification) was collated/collected and beach erosion/retreat due to CV & C was estimated through suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. A Strength-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) framework was employed to assist in the selection of indicators and multicriteria analysis used to optimize indicator weights and rank beaches according to their sustainability under sea level rise. Implementation of the framework at the two islands has shown that: the majority of Lesvos and Rhodes beaches (82% of a total of 217 beaches and 58% of a total of 97 beaches, respectively) can be classified as beaches with no, or minimal, human interference, suggesting that under environmentally sound coastal management further touristic development might be afforded; there could be very significant effects of the sea level rise on the carrying and buffering capacities of the most developed (“Blue Flag”) beaches, with some expected even under conservative projections to be completely eroded by 2100, unless technical adaptation measures are taken; and using the proposed framework, touristic beaches can be rapidly ranked in terms of their resilience to sea level rise and their development potential, allowing prioritization of effective management responses.     

海岸地区长周期地貌模型研究进展

海岸地区的长周期地貌演变关系到了人类对海岸带资源的合理开发、保护及可持续利用。研究者不断改进和提高了海岸地区长周期地貌模型的适用性和可靠性。文章从发展概况、时空尺度、计算原理、信息约减技术以及模型应用等方面简述了海岸地区长周期地貌模型的研究进展,并认为模型的理论、技术还可进一步提高,模型的应用范围还可拓展到更大尺度。