Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Development of Green-Naghdi models with a wave-absorbing beach for nonlinear, irregular wave propagation

Two-dimensional and three-dimensional Green-Naghdi (GN) models equipped with a numerical wave-absorbing beach have been developed to simulate nonlinear, regular, and irregular wave propagation. The numerical beach is introduced near the downstream boundary to absorb outgoing waves. An appropriate amount of numerical damping and an appropriate length of numerical beach are investigated using numerical experiments. The results show that the GN models with a numerical beach work very well in simulating wave propagation in water in a small computational domain.     

隐式代数曲线的有理参数化（Ⅰ）

曲线和曲面的隐式表示和参数表示各有其优点，为了能够利用两种表示方法的优点，必须能够有效地进行曲线曲面的两种表达形式的相互转换，研究隐式代数曲线的有理参数化问题，根据平面二次曲线有理参数化的有关理论，给出并讨论了二次曲线有理参数化的几何和代数算法，研制了相应的软件，所给出的实例，证明了此算法的有效性。     

组合梁负弯矩区UHPC接缝抗弯性能试验

为提高钢-混组合梁桥负弯矩区混凝土桥面板的抗裂性并简化现场施工工艺,提出新型钢-混组合梁桥负弯矩区超高性能混凝土（Ultra-high Performance Concrete,UHPC）接缝方案。以湖南省某桥为工程背景,进行1∶2缩尺模型抗弯试验研究;编制截面弯矩-曲率关系MATLAB程序,并与实测值进行对比,验证该程序可用于计算UHPC覆盖下的普通混凝土（NC）中钢筋应力;对现有NC裂缝宽度规范公式进行修正,提出考虑UHPC约束作用的组合梁负弯矩区NC最大裂缝宽度的建议公式;讨论钢-混组合梁桥负弯矩区UHPC湿接缝合理的纵桥向长度,分析UHPC层厚度及层内配筋对抗裂性能的影响。研究结果表明：新型UHPC接缝方案的抗裂性能和抗弯承载能力均满足工程要求,且接缝节点强度高于非接缝区预制部分强度;负弯矩作用下,试件沿梁高的应变较好地满足平截面假定,钢梁与混凝土板及UHPC与NC间的层间滑移量均较小;UHPC裂缝呈现“多而细”的特征,而NC裂缝呈现“少而宽”的特征,预制部分混凝土顶面最先开裂,之后UHPC-NC交界面、UHPC顶面、UHPC覆盖下的NC侧面依次出现裂缝;对于负弯矩区采用UHPC接缝的中小跨径钢-混组合连续梁桥,UHPC层的纵桥向长度宜为20%标准跨径,UHPC层厚度可根据实际工程设计要求确定,增大桥面板内钢筋直径可以提高负弯矩区混凝土的抗裂性能。     

路段动态特征中的交通组成因素研究

基于对交通流建模过程中将车型单一考虑为标准小汽车,忽略了现实交通量中车型的不同构成,本文通过对不同车型的动力特性进行标定,将其特性反映在跟车模型与车道变换模型中,并且利用交通仿真技术,分析了交通量构成对路段行程时间、车速、延误等动态特性指标的影响。     

Influential vectors in fuel consumption by an urban bus operator: Bus route,driver behavior or vehicle type?

Energy costs account for an important share of the total costs of urban and suburban bus operators. The purpose of this paper is to expand empirical research on bus transit operation costs and identify the key factors that influence bus energy efficiency of the overall bus fleet of one operator and aid to the management of its resources.We estimate a set of multivariate regression models, using cross-section dataset of 488 bus drivers operating over 92 days in 2010, in 87 routes with different bus typologies, of a transit company operating in the Lisbon’s Metropolitan Area (LMA), Rodoviária de Lisboa, S.A.Our results confirm the existence of influential variables regarding energy efficiency and these are mainly: vehicle type, commercial speed, road grades over 5% and bus routes; and to a lesser extent driving events such as: sudden longitudinal decelerations and excessive engine rotation. The methodology proved to be useful for the bus operator as a decision-support tool for efficiency optimization purpose at the company level.     

车务可视化信息系统设计与实现

车务可视化信息系统通过三维模型及虚拟漫游的展现形式,将铁路运行及运营的动态信息进行集成和柔性展示,实现旅客服务信息及运输管理相关数据的整合,通过可视化的展现方式既方便旅客及管理人员,又充分展示铁路信息化建设的成果。     

Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes for uncertainty modeling in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data

Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle devices). Despite its rather wide spatial coverage, crowdsourced speed data also brings very important challenges, such as the highly variable measurement noise in the data due to a variety of driving behaviors and sample sizes. When not properly accounted for, this noise can severely compromise any application that relies on accurate traffic data. In this article, we propose the use of heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGP) to model the time-varying uncertainty in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data. Furthermore, we develop a HGP conditioned on sample size and traffic regime (SSRC-HGP), which makes use of sample size information (probe vehicles per minute) as well as previous observed speeds, in order to more accurately model the uncertainty in observed speeds. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic data from Copenhagen, we empirically show that the proposed heteroscedastic models produce significantly better predictive distributions when compared to current state-of-the-art methods for both speed imputation and short-term forecasting tasks.     

基于参数化船型的阻力优化研究

船型几何模型的参数化表达,是船型多学科设计优化的基础。其作用是为各学科分析和优化提供一个统一的几何模型,并根据各学科分析结果自动修改调整船体型线。文中尝试使用Friendship进行船体完全参数化建模,并使用该软件中的feature编程功能编程实现shipflow型值数据的提取;通过改变一系列重要的船型参数实现变换船型几何模型,以获得满足性能需求的船型。最后利用该软件的优化框架,采用切线搜索法 (Tangent Search, TSearch) 完成1300TEU集装箱船的兴波阻力优化,优化球首和前体船体曲面。结果表明,该参数化方法在改进船型水动力性能方面有很好的效果。     

激光焊接夹层板结构设计程序开发

基于U-I型、U-IV型、V-I型、V-IV型4种夹层板结构形式,利用PCL(Patran Command Language)语言对MSC.Patran进行二次开发,设计开发出折叠式夹层板结构设计程序(FEA-LASCOR)。该程序仅需设计者在用户界面简单操作即能够实现夹层板板格快速建模、屈服强度分析、结果处理等功能。验算分析表明FEALASCOR程序具有与传统数值仿真分析一样的精度,并缩短了繁琐的建模工作,显著提高设计分析效率,为夹层板船体结构设计高效、快捷的分析工具。