Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Online channel strategies under different offline channel power structures for the Belt and Road of China

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the online channel strategies adopted by Chinese manufacturers with regard to the Belt and Road. It also investigates the effect of offline channel power structures and maritime transportation costs on online channel mode selection and pricing strategies. The offline channel power structures are classified into three types, namely, Chinese manufacturer Stackelberg (MS) structure, vertical Nash (VN) structure, and foreign retailer Stackelberg (RS) structure. Furthermore, a game model is developed among the Chinese manufacturer, foreign retailer, and cross-border e-tailer to investigate the interactions among offline channel power structures, maritime transportation costs, and Chinese manufacturers’ online channel mode selection. The results show that Chinese manufacturers’ preferences for the online agency selling mode increases correspondingly with the decrease in their market position and bargaining power. Moreover, foreign retailers can obtain higher profits in the online agency selling mode under the VN structure. However, the level of profit for foreign retailers depends on the intensity of their competition with cross-border e-tailers under the MS and RS structures. Finally, consumers in countries along the Belt and Road can obtain a higher surplus in the online agency selling mode under all of the structures.     

磁悬浮列车穿越隧道引起的压力波传播规律研究

在对Fluent软件进行二次开发的基础上，对磁悬浮列车穿越隧道引起的压力波进行了三维数值模拟，得出了隧道内的压力波时程曲线。并将隧道内的压力波动情况与列车的运行情况相结合，对压力波在隧道内的传播规律进行了详细的分析和解释，这对磁悬浮铁路隧道的设计提供了理论基础。     

气象信息在船舶管理中的应用

从船舶航行安全、可靠性角度考虑，一个重要的影响因素是航行船舶所在海域的气象状况，因此气象信息对于船舶调度管理起到非常积极重要的作用。如何获取气象信息，并把获取的气象信息融合到电子海图显示平台中，对于航行船舶的监控和管理显得十分有意义。针对如何获取气象信息及如何与电子海图叠加显示两方面的内容进行了论述。     

海员避碰行动各指标相关性的多元回归分析

在获取大量海员避碰行动样本的基础上，通过建立多元线性回归的数学模型，分析了转向时机、转向幅度、目标船舷角、会遇两船的船速比等4个指标与目标船最后通过距离之间的相关性大小，结论对海员避碰行动决策有一定的参考价值。由于样本是在对海员进行航海模拟器训练中获得的，从而说明了用航海模拟器来研究避碰行为的可行性以及STCW公约强化模拟器训练的必要性。     

优化运输结构加快铁路发展

交通运输业的发展受资源环境约束,各种运输方式在资源消耗和环境保护等方面存在较大差异,对资源和环境的影响也不同。我国各种运输方式发展的关键是在资源环境约束条件下协调发展。深入贯彻落实科学发展观,加强统筹协调和宏观调控,推进交通运输结构优化,加快铁路发展,提高铁路运输能力,促进节能减排、资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设。     

重载列车有线电控空气制动系统的研究

重载列车在制动时,由于列车前后部制动力不一致而产生巨大的车钩力和剧烈的纵向冲动,极易造成列车断钩和脱轨事故。研究利用电力线作为通信介质,采用网络控制系统和每辆车作为一个网络节点,结合我国货车120空气制动机,实现有线电控空气制动。研究表明:由电控空气制动系统(ECP系统)控制列车制动,列车中所有车辆的制动和缓解动作几乎同步进行,全部车辆制动缸开始升、降压的时间差在0.2 s以内;在网络条件允许的范围内,装有ECP系统的车辆制动和缓解的同步性不受列车编组辆数的影响,各车辆制动缸的升压、降压曲线形状几乎相同;车辆制动缸压力的控制精度达到制动命令要求值的±20 kPa。由于ECP系统实现了对列车制动和缓解的同步控制,能够保证长大重载列车安全运行。     

台湾海峡主航道船舶定线的研究

在对台湾海峡主航道船舶交通的调查与分析的基础上,应用海上交通工程的理论和方法,对海峡通航环境进行定性和定量分析,揭示海峡中主要交通流模式和交通环境特征,结合IMO《关于船舶定线的一般规定》,规划和设计台湾海峡主航道船舶定线制,并对该定线制方案设计中的技术问题进行了探讨。     

无线列调电台的干扰问题

结合铁路现场无线列车调度电台维修工作中遇到的实际问题，分析发信机噪声、杂波辐射、邻道功率辐射、互调干扰和收信机阻塞等干扰现象产生的机理，提出解决方法和可行性。     

EMS型磁悬浮列车运行阻力计算

就传统的轮机列车和ＥＭＳ型磁悬浮列车运行时所受到的阻力进行了简要分析，着重计算了ＥＭＳ型磁悬浮列车的电磁阻力，并提出了青城山试验示范线磁悬浮列车对直线电机驱动功率的要求。