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A new microeconomic model for the operation of an airline facing modal competition with uncertain total demand is developed to analyze optimal price capacity combinations. The novelty is the treatment of the capacity restriction, which is not viewed as affecting negatively individual preferences (e.g. probability of a full flight), but does influence aggregate utility. A mode choice model is used to represent unrestricted individual preferences assuming full availability (phone call demand); air capacity is treated as a variable that acts on the actual choice set. Restricted choices and total demand stochasticity are integrated in welfare calculations (users' benefits and profits). Numerical examples are given and results are analyzed in terms of load factors fare levels, and sensitivity to the stochasticity of requests.This research was partially funded by FONDECYT, Chile, Direction Génerale de l'Aviation Civile, France, the Andes Foundation and the Fulbright Commission. 相似文献
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The present paper presents a data-driven method for assessing the resilience of the European passenger transport network during extreme weather events. The method aims to fill in the gap of current research efforts regarding the quantification of impacts attributed to climate change and the identification of substitutability opportunities between transport modes in case of extreme weather events (EWE). The proposed method consists of three steps concerning the probability estimation of an EWE occurring within a transportation network, the assessment of its impacts and the passengers’ flow shift between various transport modes. A mathematical formulation for the proposed data-driven method is provided and applied in an indicative European small-scale network, in order to assess the impacts of EWE on modal choice. Results are expressed in passenger differentiated flows and the paper concludes with future research steps and directions. 相似文献
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胡明伟 《交通运输系统工程与信息》2006,6(2):8-13
通过对ITS 投资项目的费用效益分析的系统研究,提出了建立ITS 投资项目费用效益分析的框架和技术流程的具体步骤,阐述了评价指标的计算方法、方案的可行性评价和方案选优等内容,研究了费用和效益的划分和估计方法. 另外,本文提出了不确定性分析的概念和方法,并对敏感性分析和概率分析进行了重点研究. 结合IDAS 软件,通过示例论述了上述方法的技术实现. 相似文献
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扭矩标准装置优化设计研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
文章介绍了通过优化设计研制成功的高准确度2kN·m扭矩标准装置的结构、特点和关键技术.该装置采用传统的静重平衡式结构,对力臂杠杆、刀口支承和砝码等进行了优化,并采用了自动加载、对中调整、对偶平衡以及PLC控制程序等技术,使该装置的校准可信度和准确度都有所提高. 相似文献
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依照ITTC推荐规程对美国DARPA潜艇模型SUBOFF光体在不考虑自由表面情况下的CFD计算进行不确定度分析。选取中间尺度的时间步长,验证中采用细、中、粗三套网格。在最精细的网格上进行不同时间步长的研究。最后对潜艇表面压力计算进行确认。 相似文献
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Nicholas B. Taylor 《运输规划与技术》2018,41(1):37-57
ABSTRACTPredicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered. 相似文献
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This paper proposes a new scheduled-based transit assignment model. Unlike other schedule-based models in the literature, we consider supply uncertainties and assume that users adopt strategies to travel from their origins to their destinations. We present an analytical formulation to ensure that on-board passengers continuing to the next stop have priority and waiting passengers are loaded on a first-come-first-serve basis. We propose an analytical model that captures the stochastic nature of the transit schedules and in-vehicle travel times due to road conditions, incidents, or adverse weather. We adopt a mean variance approach that can consider the covariance of travel time between links in a space–time graph but still lead to a robust transit network loading procedure when optimal strategies are adopted. The proposed model is formulated as a user equilibrium problem and solved by an MSA-type algorithm. Numerical results are reported to show the effects of supply uncertainties on the travel strategies and departure times of passengers. 相似文献
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