Estimating traffic volumes for signalized intersections using connected vehicle data

Recently connected vehicle (CV) technology has received significant attention thanks to active pilot deployments supported by the US Department of Transportation (USDOT). At signalized intersections, CVs may serve as mobile sensors, providing opportunities of reducing dependencies on conventional vehicle detectors for signal operation. However, most of the existing studies mainly focus on scenarios that penetration rates of CVs reach certain level, e.g., 25%, which may not be feasible in the near future. How to utilize data from a small number of CVs to improve traffic signal operation remains an open question. In this work, we develop an approach to estimate traffic volume, a key input to many signal optimization algorithms, using GPS trajectory data from CV or navigation devices under low market penetration rates. To estimate traffic volumes, we model vehicle arrivals at signalized intersections as a time-dependent Poisson process, which can account for signal coordination. The estimation problem is formulated as a maximum likelihood problem given multiple observed trajectories from CVs approaching to the intersection. An expectation maximization (EM) procedure is derived to solve the estimation problem. Two case studies were conducted to validate our estimation algorithm. One uses the CV data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) project, in which around 2800 CVs were deployed in the City of Ann Arbor, MI. The other uses vehicle trajectory data from users of a commercial navigation service in China. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the estimation is found to be 9–12%, based on benchmark data manually collected and data from loop detectors. Considering the existing scale of CV deployments, the proposed approach could be of significant help to traffic management agencies for evaluating and operating traffic signals, paving the way of using CVs for detector-free signal operation in the future.     

An integrated methodology for the design of mooring systems and risers

Traditionally, the design of mooring lines and risers of floating production systems (FPS) has been performed separately, by different teams, employing uncoupled analysis tools that do not consider the nonlinear interaction between the platform hull and the mooring lines and risers. Design processes have been focused on fulfilling the design criteria of the respective component (mooring/riser) alone, with few or no consideration to the other component, and little interaction between the design teams. Nowadays the importance of employing analysis tools based on coupled formulations is widely recognized, and analysis strategies have been proposed to consider feedback between mooring lines and risers within their respective design processes.In this context, this work details a proposal of one single and fully integrated design methodology for mooring systems and risers for deep-water FPS. In this methodology, the design stages of both risers and mooring lines are incorporated in a single spiral, allowing the full interaction of different teams; mooring design implicitly considers the riser integrity, and vice-versa, leading to gains in efficiency and cost reduction.Different analysis strategies are employed, taking advantage of uncoupled and coupled numerical models. The models generated at the initial/intermediate design stages can be reused in subsequent stages: simpler models are used in the initial stages, and more refined models are gradually introduced, to reach an ideal balance between computational cost and accuracy of results. In the advanced stages, the exchange of information between mooring/riser also allows the definition of criteria for the selection of governing/critical loading cases to be revised and verified in detail. This leads to the reduction of the original loading case matrix, allowing a feasible use of time-consuming fully coupled analysis.Results of a case study illustrating the application of some of the main processes of the methodology are included.     

农村公路资金渠道配置评价的相对标度法

为评判农村公路资金渠道配置的相对合理性,在分析中国农村公路建设和养护资金渠道基础上,提出资金渠道配置评价的相对标度法。利用相对标度计算各资金渠道的重要度(权重),定义一个"标准"地区,确定标志值,估计反映各渠道配置相对合理性的匹配系数并求和,给出中国农村公路建设和养护资金主要渠道的权重参考值。实例计算结果表明:该方法简单、实用,且具有很强的灵活性,可用来优化农村公路资金渠道配置。     

Choice of parking: Stated preference approach

Over recent years, parking policy has become a key element of transport policy in many countries. Parking policy measures can affect many different dimensions of travel behaviour but are likely to be most significant in terms of travellers' choice of parking type and location. This dimension of travel choice has, to date, received comparatively little attention, yet is of vital importance if we are to properly understand and predict the effects of parking policy measures.This paper presents two studies addressing this issue carried out in the United Kingdom and Germany. Both studies used a stated preference approach in order to collect disaggregate data on travellers responses to changes in parking attributes and used these data to build simple logit models of parking type choice. The studies were designed in order to allow comparable choice models to be estimated from the two datasets. The results obtained strongly indicate the need to separately identify the costs associated with different components of the parking activity (e.g., general in-vehicle time, parking search time, egress time) and also point to the existence of significant differences in the relative valuation of these components across different journey purposes. Where possible, the results of the choice modelling exercises are also compared with existing revealed and stated preference results and are found to be generally in line with prior expectations.     

一种区域社会物流总费用的统计方法

区域社会物流总费用的构成及其与GDP的比例在相当程度上反映了一个地区现代物流业的发展状况、产业结构的现状和企业物流管理水平,统计区域社会物流总费用具有非常重要的意义.本文在国家社会物流总费用核算体系的基础上,提出了一种区域社会物流总费用的统计方法.依据该方法对某城市群2004年社会物流总费用进行了统计分析,实例证明这种方法切实可行.     

类推与植入:一种社会研究方法论探讨

本文在对社会学研究中实证主义与人文主义两种方法论考辨后认为，社会学研究方法论中存在两种与知识的特殊性和普遍性有关的认识方法，即“类推”和“植入”的研究方法。在一般情况下，人们是按照“类推”的方法来认识社会事实的，而当我们面对那些特殊的认识对象时，则应遵循“植入”的认识方法。不过，在实际的认识过程中，既不是单一地使用“类推”的方法，也不是“植入”的方法，而是二者的统一，即每一次认识都是“类推”与“植入”连续谱系中的某一个结点，是二者的综合。     

Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China

To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization.     

An Intelligent Response Surface Methodology for Modeling of Domain Level Constraints

An effective modeling method of domain level constraints in the constraint network for concurrent engineering （CE） was developed. The domain level constraints were analyzed and the framework of modeling of domain level constraints based on simulation and approximate technology was given. An intelligent response surface methodology （IRSM） was proposed, in which artificial intelligence technologies are introduced into the optimization process. The design of crank and connecting rod in the V6 engine as example was given to show the validity of the modeling method.     

邓小平创新市场经济理论的方法论特征探析

邓小平对市场经济理论的创新有三个主要标志,即论证了社会主义和市场经济可以兼容,为中国的经济改革取向提供了理论前提；阐释了社会主义市场经济的开放性特征,为中国融入世界经济开辟了理论通道；提出了法制建设是发展社会主义市场经济的重要保障。邓小平创新市场经济理论的方法论特征表现为：彻底的唯物主义世界观；准确把握事物普遍联系和永恒发展的原理；高超地运用了辩证唯物主义的认识论及辨证运动原理。