总纵强度耦合作用下船体板架振动计算

船体在海上营运时，船体产生中拱状态弯曲和中垂状态弯曲，所以船体板架是处在复杂弯曲状态。以往船体板架振动计算都忽略了这种影响。本文讨论用有限元方法和原理应用于这类计算，推导了板架局部振动的计算方法，给出了计算实例。通过计算表明，本文方法可用于实际，为舰船振动校核计算提供了手段。     

“低速动力性”说是EQ6100缸体疲劳的理论根源

追溯有EQ6100汽油机缸体疲劳的根源是偏颇的“低速动力性”说导致设计的疏漏。     

Is the intention to use public transport for different travel purposes determined by different factors?

The objective of this study was to examine the psychological predictors of the intention to use public transport for three travel purposes: work or study, shopping, and leisure. An expanded version of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) which contains overall image and past behaviour is used. Data were gathered through the survey of 392 residents living in the central parts of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. These data were analysed using the partial least squares technique. The results indicate that attitude and perceived behavioural control are significant predictors of the intention to use public transportation for various purposes. Further, they explain between 34.6% and 49.8% of the intention variance. By adding the overall image and past behaviour to the original predictors in the TPB, the explained variance, with regard to work or study, shopping, and leisure purposes, increased by 5.6%, 5.1%, and 6.8%, respectively.     

基于奖罚措施的小汽车通勤者出行行为研究

奖赏和惩罚措施是解决交通拥堵问题的重要措施,本文基于在北京市的调查,进行 2 种措施下出行选择行为的探索研究,得出奖励措施会使更多的小汽车通勤者转向非高峰出 行,而收费措施对于使其放弃小汽车出行效果更好.基于前景理论的分析显示：奖励措施下,大 部分出行者的方式选择为“收益”;而收费措施下,大部分出行者面临“损失”,不同群体在出行 选择时呈现不同的风险偏好态度.在引导小汽车高峰出行向错峰出行转移时,奖励措施比较适 用于中等收入群体,收费措施比较适用于中高收入群体;在引导小汽车高峰出行向其他方式转 移时,2种措施对低收入群体效果更好.以上结论可为交通需求管理政策的制定提供一些参考.     

The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE³M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.     

信息融合技术在汽车ABS系统故障诊断中的应用

针对汽车电控系统故障诊断的复杂性,提出用多传感器信息融合技术来解决该问题的思路。研究了一种决策层信息融合方法(Dempster-Shafer证据推理法)在汽车防抱死系统故障诊断中的应用,并详细介绍了在此实例中的故障识别框架的建立、mass函数的确定、证据合成等内容。结果表明,基于Dempster-Shafer证据推理的决策层信息融合方法能够准确、有效地诊断出ABS系统故障所在的部位。     

21世纪世界新秩序——几种基本理论模式述评

在人类进入21世纪之后，世界需要建立什么样的新秩序才能更好地服务于人类社会?这个问题激发了政治家和思想家们的极大兴趣，他们提出了各种各样的“理论”和“模式”。其中，较具代表性的有：“地球村”模式，世界政府模式，“和平区”与“动乱区”模式，“三大经济区”模式，“明冲突”模式，“单极霸权”或“单极主导下的多极合作”模式，两极或多极均势模式，等等。这些模式各以其独特的视角，试图勾勒出后冷战时代世界新秩序的“地图”。     

关于标准航海通信用语(SMCP)教学的思考

标准航海通信用语(SMCP)是STCW78/95公约要求船舶驾驶员能够熟练使用的基本航海用语,但是由于教学中的问题,很多通过英语评估考试的船员仍然不能达到这一要求。本文分析了产生这种现象的症结,并提出SMCP教学应该结合专业知识,提高学生英语语言能力,创造并提供机会,加强听说训练。     

基于统计能量法的船舶板架结构简化建模方法研究

统计能量法是解决复杂结构高频动力学问题的主要方法之一,限于其分析特性,过于细致化的建模会引发其计算量大、计算精度低等问题。针对典型的船体板架结构,提出基于统计能量法的船体板架结构简化建模方法,并结合数值计算加以验证。根据实际需求,提出简化建模的等效原则,给出多平板的简化建模方法;通过研究给出周期加筋板的简化建模方法;提出一种双层底结构的简化建模方法,并进行误差分析。     

基于混沌理论的高速公路网短时交通流量预测研究

随着高速公路网的建成及其交通流量的不断增大,对高速路网交通流实时控制和诱导服务的需求日益突出,而高速公路网短时交通流量的预测,不仅是交通流实时控制和诱导服务的基础和依据,而且预测结果的准确性对改善高速公路网的通行能力和服务水平有重要影响。基于混沌时间序列分析和预测的理论,建立了高速公路网短时交通流预测模型,计算给定区域高速公路网多断面短时交通流量预测值,结果表明利用多维混沌时间序列法预测高速公路网短时交通流量可行且具有较高的精度。