包海通道西安至安康高速铁路运输需求分析

研究国家高速铁路网包海通道西安至安康高速铁路的运输需求,可为本线主要技术标准、运输组织和建设方案的确定提供决策依据。首先通过旅客运输径路比较分析,确定本线主要承担我国蒙西、陕北、山西、北京、东北地区、关中地区与陕南、西南、广西、海南等地的旅客交流,兼顾陕南重镇安康等与关中城市群、陕北地区的城际客流,其次基于"四阶段法"基本原理,对区域铁路客运量进行分配预测,并按照趋势运量、转移运量、诱增运量进一步分析本线客流密度,最后研究本线客流构成、所在通道的综合交通方式结构,并综合确定本线客车开行方案。     

提高云支线运输效率的对策

大同车务段云支线各装车站是大秦线的主要装车基地,通过对云支线运输效率影响因素的分析,针对存在的通过能力不足、机车运用效率不高、装车设备不配套、列车到达不均衡等问题,提出修建云岗—云岗西双线铁路,提高机车运用效率,改变装车作业方式和合理安排机车运用等对策,满足云支线运量增长的需要,确保大秦线完成运输任务。     

A methodology for evaluating the performance of model-based traffic prediction systems

Model-based traffic prediction systems (mbTPS) are a central component of the decision support and ICM (integrated corridor management) systems currently used in several large urban traffic management centers. These models are intended to generate real-time predictions of the system’s response to candidate operational interventions. They must therefore be kept calibrated and trustworthy. The methodologies currently available for tracking the validity of a mbTPS have been adapted from approaches originally designed for off-line operational planning models. These approaches are insensitive to the complexity of the network and to the amount and quality of the data available. They also require significant human intervention and are therefore not suitable for real-time monitoring. This paper outlines a set of criteria for designing tests that are appropriate for the mbTPS task. It also proposes a test that meets the criteria. The test compares the predictions of the mbTPS in question to those of a model-less alternative. A t-test is used to determine whether the predictions of the mbTPS are superior to those of the model-less predictor. The approach is applied to two different systems using data from the I-210 freeway in Southern California.     

Morning commute in a single-entry traffic corridor with no late arrivals

This paper analyzes a model of early morning traffic congestion, that is a special case of the model considered in Newell (1988). A fixed number of identical vehicles travel along a single-lane road of constant width from a common origin to a common destination, with LWR flow congestion and Greenshields’ Relation. Vehicles have a common work start time, late arrivals are not permitted, and trip cost is linear in travel time and time early. The paper explores traffic dynamics for the social optimum, in which total trip cost is minimized, and for the user optimum, in which no vehicle’s trip cost can be reduced by altering its departure time. Closed-form solutions for the social optimum and quasi-analytic solutions for the user optimum are presented, along with numerical examples, and it is shown that this model includes the bottleneck model (with no late arrivals) as a limit case where the length of the road shrinks to zero.     

上海市东西通道与轨道交通一体化工程总体方案

该文在分析了陆家嘴地区交通运行状况和功能发展的基础上,系统地介绍了东西通道的由来,以及东西通道与轨道交通14号线一体化布置的总体构思,并对通道选线、布置形式、出入口设置、断面布置、关键节点、交通组织,以及设备系统布置等进行了系统的研究。     

铁路通道内客流分担率及客运组织策略研究

针对高速铁路与既有线并行的铁路通道内客流的分担率问题,分析旅客选择乘坐铁路通道内高速铁路和既有线的主要影响因素,在考虑经济性、快速性、便捷性和舒适性4个影响因素的基础上,采用加法原理建立可变权重的广义费用函数,并用广义费用函数取代一般Logit分担率模型中的效用函数,从而导出可变权重的Logit客流分担率模型。运用指出的模型计算武广铁路运输通道内高速铁路的客流分担率,计算结果与客流统计数据的对比分析表明,给出的客流分担率模型具有较高的准确率。通过对影响武广铁路运输通道客运组织关键因素的分析,提出了武广高速铁路按培育期、增长期和成熟期3个阶段开展客运组织的策略。     

Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Indian subcontinent under future port development scenarios

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is twofold: the first is to assess the extent to which current port development initiatives contribute to securing the status of the Port of Colombo as a regional transshipment (T/S) hub to serve the Indian subcontinent; and the second is to generate plausible future development scenarios for the maritime industry in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A scenario analysis method is applied to examine the past trends and to build future development scenarios. The results showed that major Indian ports have experienced a significant growth in cargo volumes and vessel traffic. South and East Indian coastal ports continue to use the Port of Colombo as a T/S port in tandem with the corridors connected to the Indian Ocean. Scenario analysis highlights the growing importance of BRI-centric land-based economic corridors, which would generate a large amount of cargos from hinterlands up to China. This would be further fueled through the Great Mekong region-driven industrialization, which would add to the west-bound maritime cargo volume. The paper concludes that the increased capital influx from China would more likely to result in a substantial development of the present port and road/rail infrastructure in Sri Lanka.     

我国铁路铁矿石运输发展对策研究

随着运输结构调整的不断深入,"公转铁"运量持续增加,我国铁矿石运输发展对铁路货运增量具有重要意义.阐述我国铁矿石市场产需运现状,分析铁矿石铁路运输情况,针对当前铁路铁矿石运输存在的问题,提出我国铁路铁矿石运输发展对策措施,即:加强港口后方通道衔接,提高海铁联运比重;推进企业专用线建设,强化铁路"门到门"服务;积极推进"...     

A general corridor model for designing plug-in electric vehicle charging infrastructure to support intercity travel

This paper proposes to optimally configure plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging infrastructure for supporting long-distance intercity travel using a general corridor model that aims to minimize a total system cost inclusive of infrastructure investment, battery cost and user cost. Compared to the previous work, the proposed model not only allows realistic patterns of origin–destination demands, but also considers flow-dependent charging delay induced by congestion at charging stations. With these extensions, the model is better suited to performing a sketchy design of charging infrastructure along highway corridors. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed integer program with nonlinear constraints and solved by a specialized metaheuristic algorithm based on Simulated Annealing. Our numerical experiments show that the metaheuristic produces satisfactory solutions in comparison with benchmark solutions obtained by a mainstream commercial solver, but is more computationally tractable for larger problems. Noteworthy findings from numerical results are: (1) ignoring queuing delay inducted by charging congestion could lead to suboptimal configuration of charging infrastructure, and its effect is expected to be more significant when the market share of PEVs rises; (2) in the absence of the battery cost, it is important to consider the trade-off between the costs of charging delay and the infrastructure; and (3) building long-range PEVs with the current generation of battery technology may not be cost effective from the societal point of view.     

Integrating land use and transport practice through spatial metrics

Despite the growing development of tools that can integrate land use and transport, the desired integration is still illusive in daily practice. To address this gap, the current study uses spatial metrics, a set of methods traditionally used for studying changes in the spatial structure of landscapes, which are translated into the domain of transport planning. It examines how spatial metrics can be integrated into “Land Use Transport” strategy-making, and how useful they are according to the practitioners’ perceptions. A Light Rail Transit corridor in Granada (Spain) provides the empirical focus of this research. Land use characteristics such as: land use mixing, land use diversity and green areas connectivity were successfully studied using spatial metrics, and they were used to map three “Land Use Transport” strategies: (i) proximity dynamics and non-motorised modes; (ii) modal shift from cars to Light Rail Transit system; (iii) shared spaces between motorised and non-motorised modes. Practitioners perceived that spatial metrics could improve the “Land Use Transport” strategy-making process in comparison with traditional methods used in practice. However, certain shortcomings related to the usability of spatial metrics are also highlighted and discussed. This study concludes with a reflection on research challenges for adapting spatial metrics to transport practice.