Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

精细时程积分法在液压仿真系统中的应用

为了有效避免液压系统仿真过程中的刚性问题，引人精细时程积分法，相对于以往的计算方法，它不仅使仿真结果精确，且可以较为有效的避免刚性问题，取得了令人满意的效果。     

往复式压缩机系统的管道振动分析

从动力分析角度，通过对往复式压缩机引起管道振动原因的分析，提出控制管道振动的方法；以海上已投产平台管道布置为例进行振动分析，通过计算管道因脉动引起管道振动的不平衡力，确定抑制管道振动的最佳方法。     

海上单桩风力发电平台简化设计

采用在欧洲已经进行商业化运作的独立桩双段结构，桩基础采用带有过渡段的单桩。塔架上的风力发电机采用丹麦Vestas公司的V80风力发电机。参考DNV-OS-J101和API-RP-2A中的工作应力设计法，进行结构静力、桩基础的承载力，涡激振动、疲劳寿命，结构动力学等分析。静力分析分析极端环境下的组合工况；桩基础主要计算桩的轴向承载力和校核水平承载力，并采用有限元模型模拟桩土相互作用；涡激振动分析主要考虑不同风速下塔架的升力以及引起的横向振动；疲劳分析根据涡激振动分析的结果利用S-N曲线对基础寿命进行了评估；动力学分析求出了结构的固有频率，并进行了波浪力作用下的瞬态历程分析。     

Dynamics of ships running aground

A comprehensive dynamic model is presented for analysis of the transient loads and responses of the hull girder of ships running aground on relatively plane sand, gravel, or rock sea bottoms. Depending on the seabed soil characteristics and the geometry of the ship bow, the bow will plow into the seabed to some extent. The soil forces are determined by a mathematical model based on a theory for frictional soils in rupture and dynamic equilibrium of the fluid phase in the saturated soil. The hydrodynamic pressure forces acting on the decelerated ship hull are determined by taking into account the effect of shallow water. Hydrodynamic memory effects on the transient hull motions are modeled by application of an impulse response technique. The ship hull is modeled as an elastic beam to determine the structural response in the form of flexural and longitudinal stress waves caused by the transient ground reaction and hydrodynamic forces. A number of numerical analysis results are presented for a VLCC running aground. The results include bow trajectory in the seabed, time variation of the grounding force, and the maximum values of the sectional shear forces and bending moments in the hull girder.     

单磁铁系统的稳定性与仿真分析

采用带状态观测器的气隙-速度-加速度反馈控制系统,在多体系统仿真软件SIMPACK平台上,考虑悬浮系统、电磁系统及控制系统的耦合作用,建立单磁铁-轨道梁-控制器的综合模型,模拟磁浮列车在弹性轨道梁上静止悬浮的过程,分析轨道梁的特征对车轨耦合振动的影响,研究共振的产生及解决方法,为磁悬浮列车的整车静止悬浮稳定性分析提供依据。     

船舶液力耦合器的人工神经网络的数学建模

从船舶动力装置动态建模与仿真的实际需求，引出了其主要部件之一的液力耦合器数学建模在稳／动态特性研究中的重要性，以及利用其试验曲线(输入特性形式)作为数据源去构建准稳态数学模型的困难之处：寻找一种通用的数学表达形式，以实现①液力耦合器在额定工况及其附近的试验曲线的内插与外廷；②过渡工况液力耦合器数学模型的设计(如液力耦合器接合和脱开过程其滑差从100％向额定滑差值方向的变化)。本文介绍了人工神经网络方法在液力耦合器动态建模中的应用。文章先介绍了其数学建模的思路和要点：①选择人工神经网络算法(包括传递函数)与结构(人工神经网络隐含层数目和神经元个数)；②提高人工神经网络泛化能力的措施；③利用专业知识扩充人工神经网络训练用的数据样本。然后叙述了其数学模型在某船舶动力装置稳态、动态特性计算机仿真研究中的某些有意义的结果：①正常航行(四机双桨)稳态工况时各车令下液力耦合器的滑差；②不同螺旋桨螺距下的液力耦合器接合过程的滑差变化；③怠速→前进五的急加速过程的滑差变化。     

浅析预应力混凝土连续箱梁与钢混结合梁的优劣

预应力混凝土连续箱梁与钢混结合梁在公路、铁路工程中的应用越来越普及。在京沪高速铁路工程中也得到了广泛应用。本文对这两种梁型从结构、动力特性、施工、应用、经济性等方面进行了比较全面的论述和总结,对这两种在勘察、设计过程中的应用以及节约投资等,具有很好的参考价值。     

沉箱箱壁计算分析和局部优化

采用结构计算程序AN SY S,对北方某港拟建的15万吨级矿石转水码头大直径圆沉箱箱壁进行了计算。对桥梁计算中通用的影响线加载程序进行修改,编制成适用于卸船机荷载的动态规划程序,并嵌入结构分析程序中,计算出最不利组合工况下的沉箱箱壁受力;同时参考AN SY S拓扑优化结果,对沉箱消浪孔形式和布置位置等进行了调整,计算分析后给出了受力性能更为合理的细部构造布置。     

转臂轴箱定位节点位置对机车动力学性能影响分析

利用SIMPACK建立某出口2B0机车动力学模型,分析了转臂轴箱定位节点的纵向位置对机车动力学性能的影响.研究表明节点纵向位置对机车横向稳定性有较显著影响,而对机车直线和曲线通过性能影响不大.得出了在动力学模型中,需要把转臂作为一个单独元件考虑,以减小计算误差的结论.