Analysis of factors that may be essential in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners

This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic Outcomes for Harvesters under the West Coast Groundfish Trawl Catch Share Program: Have Goals and Objectives Been Met?

Abstract

The West Coast Groundfish Trawl Catch Share Program was designed to achieve multiple economic goals and objectives, including increasing net benefits, profitability, flexibility, and utilization of harvest allocations. In this article, we leverage seven years of comprehensive cost and earnings data to evaluate progress towards these goals with a focus on harvesters. Our assessment shows that five years post-implementation, net benefits to the nation have doubled, and indicators of productivity and profitability have increased. The fleet that targets Pacific whiting has seen the largest gains, due in part to increases in total allowable catch and the elimination of the race-to-fish. However, increased revenues have not been realized to the degree that was expected for harvesters targeting non-whiting groundfish, partly due to lower than predicted consolidation and relatively low quota utilization. Economic outcomes indicate that tradeoffs exist between certain objectives of the program, specifically between achieving full utilization and flexibility for harvesters. Results are discussed in the context of the design and evaluation of catch share programs for diverse, multispecies fisheries.     

汽车行业供应链中成员协作信任与冲突研究

我国汽车行业正处于创建自主品牌,从传统的供应链向电子化、信息化、同步化转型 过程中,信任与冲突是汽车供应链协同整合的关键因素.针对汽车行业供应链特性及发展趋 势,构建了基于契约信任、知识信任、信誉信任的跨组织信任协调机制,并构建了汽车行业 供应链成员协作信任机制与关系、流程、任务3种冲突的关系模型,研究了不同协作类型供 应链的信任与冲突,指出信息与知识共享是我国汽车行业供应链转型建立信任、解决冲突的 必要措施.     

朝鲜核问题浅析

朝核问题成为近二十年来国际和东北亚地区热点问题。朝核问题实质是冷战的产物,也是冷战结束后冷战思维的产物。朝鲜核问题之所以复杂,主要症结在于朝美两个当事国之间的敌对及相互间极不信任。解决朝核问题关键是美国能否放弃针对朝鲜的冷战和冷战思维,消除朝鲜在安全上的疑虑。     

浅谈企业的质量诚信班组建设

本文通过对质量问题产生的原因分析,简述了人的质量诚信是一切质量的根本。阐明了在企业中加强对生产一线员工开展质量诚信意识教育以及质量诚信班组建设在企业中的作用。     

嵌入理论体系性研究

嵌入性问题的提出为社会学的经济分析开拓了广阔的空间,也为经济学和管理学提供了分析问题的新思路。但是目前对嵌入理论存在理解不够和滥用两种倾向,主要原因是没有从嵌入理论的本源出发,对该理论进行系统性剖析。综合国外研究可以发现,信任机制和公司边界问题是嵌入理论研究的主要内容,可以借助嵌入理论,从社会网络的视角进行分析。嵌入分析有多种分类方式,而关系嵌入和结构嵌入是嵌入分析的主要手段,可以涵盖嵌入分析的所有内容。交易成本经济学（TCE）和基于资源的观点（RBV）与嵌入分析的结合使该理论更加贴近经济学和管理学的理论体系。本文通过对上述嵌入内容、手段和发展趋势的梳理,尝试系统性理解嵌入理论,以求对该理论进行更好的应用。     

国有股减持和流通的浮动定价配售策略研究

国有股减持的核心问题在于减持价格的确定，国有股流通的核心问题在于证券市场的资金承受能力，证券市场稳定发展及其社会资源再分配过程中的公平性。从市场利益机制入手，提出浮动定价配售策略，对国有股减持和流通的操作有效性进行探讨，对可放弃控股权的国有股流通的具体模式提出相应的建议。     

船体影响下舵附推力鳍的节能效果研究

通过 CFD方法实现船舶自航试验模拟,计算在船体影响下舵附推力鳍可带来2.3%左右的节能效果,分析指出舵附推力鳍通过吸收螺旋桨尾流能量,增加螺旋桨推力,改善船尾伴流,降低船身阻力的节能原理。计算敞水状态下桨/舵/舵附推力鳍系统的推进性能,并与船体影响下的推进性能进行比较,指出敞水状态下舵附推力鳍的工作状态与在船体影响下有着较大不同,为设计人员提供基础参考。     

基于侧斜的螺旋桨优化设计

螺旋桨的螺距、纵倾、侧斜、剖面参数等众多几何参数综合决定着螺旋桨的水动力性能,在进行螺旋桨优化设计的过程中,需要以这些参数为优化变量进行优化。本文以粒子群算法为工具,基于面元法理论,以侧斜为优化变量,推力系数为限制条件,敞水效率为优化目标,对螺旋桨进行优化设计。侧斜用贝塞尔曲线拟合方式进行表达,给定一定的变化范围,符合优化过程中的实际变化。对优化结果进行分析,螺旋桨敞水效率提高,同时改善了桨叶表面的压力分布,有利于延迟空泡的产生;优化桨在0-1的进速中敞水效率均比原桨提高。     

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以多路径多交通运输方式网络为研究对象,从运输系统快捷、低能耗、可持续发展目标出发,提出了基于功效系数法的轨道交通票价优化调整多目标规划模型.该模型旨在减少经济圈内平均单次出行时间及能源消耗.案例分析表明,综合交通运输系统出行效率、出行低能耗、运营企业可持续发展的目标相互影响和制约.城际轨道交通票价的调整对经济圈内的交通结构有重要的影响,并且通过验证,城际轨道交通票价的降低有助于减少经济圈内系统平均出行时间及能源消耗的减少.在本文给出的案例中,若将经济圈内城际轨道交通票价降低7.5%,系统出行时间、能耗水平将分别下降7.8%、2.1%.决策部门可以通过制定合理的城际轨道交通票价,促进多运输方式间的客流转移,进而实现综合运输系统快捷、高效和可持续发展要求.