Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

综合交通线网规划方案合理性评价内涵探讨

文章从合理性的一般哲学解释出发,论证出综合交通线网规划方案合理性存在的必然性,然后分别从多方式合理分工、各交通线路分阶段整体推进、交通线网投资实施总体控制、交通网络构建符合OD分布规律、以及线网规划目标考虑资源消耗限制等方面,深入分析合理的综合交通体系应具备的特征,并由此推荐系列评价指标集,从而为综合交通线网规划方案合理性评价提供理论依据。     

虾峙门航道船舶通航能力评估研究

随着宁波-舟山港吞吐量的迅速增长,虾峙门航道通航能力将面临越来越大的压力。通过对宁波-舟山港吞吐量的预测,交通流量的分析,航道双向通航理论的研究,对虾峙门航道通航能力进行评估。认为虾峙门航道能满足双向航路的要求,2010年前应开通虾峙门双向航路或开通条帚门航道,以保持宁波-舟山港航道与港口的协调、可持续发展。     

基于博弈论的公交枢纽规划布局方案评价

本文在对传统规划布局方案评价方法存在的不足进行分析的基础上，提出运用博弈论对公交枢纽规划布局方案进行评价，并给出了博弈模型和算法，以期达到最优布局。     

开发铁路运输安全综合评价决策支持系统（DSS）的探讨

通过对目前我国铁路运输安全评价中存在问题的分析，研究制定了适合于我国铁路运输安全现状的评价指标２８个，同时引人层次分析法（ＡＨＰ法）和模糊综合评判法等技术方法，开发了决策支持系统，文中全面介绍了系统的体系结构，数据库结构，模型库结构和系统功能等。     

On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal

In many countries, decision-making on proposals for national or regional infrastructure projects in passenger and freight transport includes carrying out a cost–benefit analysis for these projects. Reductions in travel times are usually a key benefit. However, if a project also reduces the variability of travel time, travellers, freight operators and shippers will enjoy additional benefits, the ‘reliability benefits’. Until now, these benefits are usually not included in the cost–benefit analysis. To include reliability of travel or transport time in the cost–benefit analysis of infrastructure projects not only monetary values of reliability, but also reliability forecasting models are needed. As a result of an extensive feasibility study carried out for the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development this paper aims to provide a literature overview and outcomes of an expert panel on how best to calculate and monetise reliability benefits, synthesised into recommendations for implementing travel time reliability into existing transport models in the short, medium, and long term. The paper focuses on road transport, which has also been the topic for most of the available literature on modelling and valuing transport time reliability.     

铁路建设项目经济评价信息系统的设计与应用

作者通过对铁路建设项目经济评价业务特点的分析,提出了利用计算机辅助经济评价的设计思想,并对运量预测、运营成本计算的算法作了详细讨论。     

运输企业能效管理评价体系的探索与研究

文章以道路运输企业为例,分析了目前运输企业能效管理的必要性,并就能效管理的评价体系构建进行研究,具有一定的指导意义。     

Meta-analysis of UK values of travel time: An update

Numerous travel demand studies have been carried out over the past five decades, many of which produce estimates of the value of travel time. This includes a rich body of largely unpublished evidence, which can provide valuable insights into the impact of variables such as GDP, travel distance, purpose and mode on this critical parameter for transport modelling and appraisal. The work reported in this paper updates and extends our previous meta-analyses of UK values of time ( [Wardman, 1998], [Wardman, 2001a] and [Wardman, 2004]) by adding recent studies and widening the range of explanatory variables included. Our current research covers 226 studies carried out between 1960 and 2008, yielding a total of 1749 valuations (a 50% increase relative to our previous work) and making this the largest data set of its kind to the best of our knowledge. This is also the most comprehensive study to date of parameters other than in-vehicle time and includes valuations of walk, wait, headway, congested, free flow, late, departure time shift and search time. Exploratory analysis of the data set provides interesting insights into methodological trends in travel demand modelling.For each valuation, over thirty quantitative and categorical variables were recorded and then included in a multivariate regression model to explain variations in the value of time. A large number of statistically significant effects were obtained from this meta-analysis, some of which are in marked contrast with, or not present in, our previous work. One finding that stands out is that the estimated elasticity of the value of time with respect to GDP per capita is 0.9 and highly significant, a much closer correspondence to the widely used convention of a unit income elasticity over time than we have previously obtained. The ratio between walk and wait time and in-vehicle time was found to be substantially lower than the commonly used value of two. We also found large and significant differences between the results from studies based on different types of Stated Preference survey presentation. Other important effects include variations by mode used, mode valued, travel purpose, attribute type and distance. It is envisaged that the results are of direct relevance in the British context, as inputs to appraisal or for benchmarking, whilst the methodological implications are of broader interest and the results, in terms of time equivalents and variations in values of time, can be transferred to other contexts.     

基于SEM模型的轨道交通企业员工满意度评价

员工满意度的高低直接影响着企业经营活动的效率。本文首先介绍了结构方程模型（SEM模型）的基本原理,然后从轨道交通企业的特点出发,建立了轨道交通企业员工满意度评价的SEM模型及指标体系,最后以深圳地铁运营分公司员工满意度评价为例,对SEM模型进行了实证性研究。