Why new technologies cannot radically improve the quality of urban transportation

In recent years a great deal of time and effort has been expended on the development of new modes of transport for cities. It is argued in this paper that this work is unlikely to be very productive because the major remaining flaw in the provision of transportation services—the inability of one mode to provide a good service to concentrated and dispersed trip ends—seems unavoidable. To make the required breakthrough a new mode must be frugal in its demands for space, flexible in its operation and fast. But an analysis of the performance of existing and prototype modes suggest that there is a fundamental technological barrier that precludes any one mode from performing well in more than two out of these three ways. This implies that any further improvements in travel for the urbanite must be made through existing modes and their derivatives and will be quite limited. It also suggests that the only possible way of substantially improving urban transportation is to build or rebuild towns so that one of the important mode attributes mentioned above is rendered superfluous.     

Passenger conveyor economics

Operating and capital costs for a high speed conveyor are estimated from cost data for low speed conveyors and from estimates for high speed designs. Unit costs are developed with reference to theoretical and practical conveyor capacities, and to the effect of traffic peaking on average utilization. User benefits are modelled as the change in consumers surplus arising from the introduction of a conveyor on a linear street as an alternative to walking. Cost and benefits vary widely depending on system design and location and on characteristics of travellers. Benefit measurements should reflect the effects on travel demand of a proposed installation, changes in value of time with changes in mode, and the effects of benefit “dilution” associated with limitations on access to the conveyor.