Forecasting bunker prices; A nonstationary,multivariate methodology

This paper suggests a methodological approach for the forecasting of marine fuel prices. The prediction of the bunker prices is of outmost importance for operators, as bunker prices affect heavily the economic planning and financial viability of ventures and determine decisions related to compliance with regulations. A multivariate nonstationary stochastic model available in the literature is being retrieved, after appropriate adjustment and testing. The model belongs to the class of periodically correlated stochastic processes with annual periodic components. The time series are appropriately transformed to become Gaussian, and then are decomposed to deterministic seasonal characteristics (mean value and standard deviation) and a residual time series. The residual part is proved to be stationary and then is modeled as a Vector AutoRegressive Mooving Average (VARMA) process. Finally, using the methodology presented, forecasts of a tetra-variate and an octa-variate time series of bunker prices are produced and are in good agreement with actual values. The obtained results encourages further research and deeper investigation of the driving characters of the multivariate time series of bunker prices.     

现行土地征收补偿制度的缺陷及对策

本文从立法的角度,分析了现行土地征收补偿制度的缺陷,从执行的层面,分析了实施土地征收补偿过程中的问题,针对性地提出了完善这一制度的具体建议,力求有完整的体系,有较强的可操作性。     

����н�����Ŀ���ս�ͨӰ��ѵ��о�

交通影响费能补充城市交通的资金投入,调节土地开发与交通设施的供应关系. 从交通影响费的征收范围、费用标准、费用使用等方面,提出确定交通影响费的4项原则;探讨建设项目的交通投入、项目性质、所处区位特征和政策倾向等交通影响费的关键因素. 进一步,从项目类型界定、费用标准、社会认可度、与现行制度衔接等4个方面分析了征收TIF工作存在的主要难点及解决的思路,为现阶段在我国推行TIF政策提供参考依据.     

道路收费费率决定模型比较分析研究

利用微观经济学原理，从不同收费目的下收费类型的划分着眼，对拥挤收费、还贷收费和经营收费三种不同收费目的下的道路收费率决定模型进行研究，并对各种收费理论进行定量比较分析，可为解决城市道路建设和收费问题提供理论依据。     

Estimation of the perceived value of transit time for containerized cargoes

This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the perceived value of transit time of containers by shipping lines. The key idea is that a shipping line’s published schedule is the optimal decision that minimizes the sum of fuel cost and time-associated costs of the containers adopted by the shipping line. Using the proposed method, we find that the adopted values of transit time for nine trans-Pacific services operated by Orient Overseas Container Line and five trans-Pacific services operated by Maersk Line are between US$5/TEU/day and US$30/TEU/day. We further demonstrate how the adopted value can be used for designing the optimal transit times between ports, analyzing the viability of slow-steaming, checking whether ships should speed up to catch up to connecting ships on other services, and helping to predict the market share of less polluting fuels in view of rules on air emission.     

A critical examination of an airport noise mitigation scheme and an aircraft noise charge: the case of capacity expansion and externalities at Sydney (Kingsford Smith) airport

In the wake of the Australian airline liberalization in 1990 and its forecasted impact on air traffic, capacity has been expanded at Sydney (Kingsford Smith) airport (Sydney KSA) – Australia's busiest commercial airport – with the construction of the third runway in 1994. Coinciding with the approval for this capacity expansion, the Commonwealth Government amended the Federal Airports Corporation (FAC) Act to direct the FAC to carry out activities which protect the environment from the effects of aircraft operations, with the cost to be borne by the airline industry according to the ‘Polluter Pays Principle'. Noise management plans were part of the conditions for developmental approval for a third runway. To this end, since 1995, Sydney KSA imposes a noise levy designed to generate sufficient revenues to fund a noise mitigation scheme. Although the issues of aircraft noise, in particular its impact on property values and land use planning around the airport, have been extensively addressed in the literature, no one has empirically examined the implications of new environmental policies in conjunction with airline liberalization and change in airport infrastructure. Principles and policy analyses are discussed in this paper. By focusing on the specifics of Sydney KSA, broader policy issues likely to be relevant for other major airports around the world are discussed.     

The Smeed Report 50 years on: a role for the workplace parking levy?

Fifty years ago, Reuben Smeed chaired a study and produced a Report on the Economic and Technical Possibilities of Road Pricing. This report was to consider different methods of charging, including road pricing, to see if different pricing methods could reduce the problems associated with congestion as opposed to the traditional methods in place such as fuel tax. Since that time, various attempts have been made to introduce road pricing schemes but with only modest success so far. By contrast parking policies, a second-best alternative to road pricing, have been extensively used by local authorities as a means of managing congestion. The effectiveness of such policies, however, has been limited by an increase in the proportion of privately owned non-residential parking which is not under the control of local authorities. The aim of this paper is to present the results of an early-stage, post-implementation study of the Nottingham Workplace Parking Levy (WPL) – a measure that charges employers for the number of parking spaces they provide for their staff. Particular emphasis is placed on why a WPL was seen as being favourable compared to a road pricing alternative. The reason for this was that it could be introduced in a shorter time frame and at a lower cost, thus making it a lower risk option when compared with road pricing.     

Bunker levy schemes for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in international shipping

A fuel levy is one of the market-based measures (MBMs) currently under consideration at the International Maritime Organization. MBMs have been proposed to improve the energy efficiency of the shipping sector and reduce its emissions. This paper analyses the economic and environmental implications of two types of levy on shipping bunker fuels by means of an analytical model built on the cobweb theorem. A unit-tax per ton of fuel and an ad-valorem tax, enforced as a percentage of fuel prices, are examined. In both cases, a speed and fuel-consumption reduction equivalent to an improvement in the energy efficiency of the sector would be expected as a result of the regulation enforcement. The speed reduction in the unit-tax case depends on fuel prices and the tax amount, whereas in the ad-valorem case it relies upon the enforced tax percentage.Both schemes lead to industry profit decline, the extent of which depend on the structure of the levy and market conditions. Since there is concern that the costs resulting from the policy will be passed from shipping companies to their customers along the supply chain, the paper dwells on how the costs arising from the enforcement of the levy will be actually allocated between ship-owners and operators, and cargo-owners. In a market characterised by high freight rates and with no or limited excess capacity, a higher percentage of the total tax amount is transferred from ship-owners to shippers. In case of a recession the opposite happens.     

突出重点服务大局实现交通规费征稽工作新突破

文章结合目前广西交通规费征稽工作现状,分析了2006年征稽工作的新形势,提出今年规费征收工作应重点在“保费源、查漏征、治外挂”三个方面下功夫,堵住各种偷、逃、漏规费的渠道,力争2006年广西交通规费征收实现新突破。     

中国加入"国际燃油公约"分析

国际燃油公约预计将于近期生效,本文从公约的核心内容入手,重点分析了我国燃油污染损害现状及我国批准加入公约的原因,并提出了现阶段我国应对燃油公约的决策建议。