Short-term Hourly Traffic Forecasts using Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census

The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station. Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region.     

一种基于离散对数问题的存根代理盲签名方案

数字签名用来保证原始数据完整性和有效性,一个数字签名方案包括数字签名生成算法和数字签名验证算法.简短地介绍了盲签名、代理签名的基本思想和基本性质,并给出如何通过非对称密码算法的思想来实现这些签名方案,提出并详细介绍了一种基于离散对数问题的有存根的(免责声明)代理盲签名方案,讨论了基于离散对数问题的密码学算法的可能攻击方法,在此基础上给出了协议实现时的一些有益的建议.     

多层结构及分布式PowerBuilder的实现

讨论了分布式多层应用体系的结构、特点及实现技术,介绍了分布式PowerBuilder结构,并详细说明了如何用PowerBuilder7.0具体地实现多层结构应用系统.     

An Efficient Provable Secure ID-Based Proxy Signature Scheme Based on CDH Assumption

IntroductionMambo, et al.[1]first introduced the conceptof proxy signature. In their scheme, an originalsigner delegates his signing right to a proxy signerin such a way that the proxy signer can sign anymessage on behalf of the original signer and theverifier can verify and distinguish proxy signaturefrom original signature. Proxy signature is of greatuse in such a case that a manager needs to autho-rize his secretary to sign documents on behalf ofhimself before his leaving for a vacation. Du…     

铁路计算机网络安全系统建设和应用

铁路计算机网络安全系统基于"应用分区、网络分层、安全分级"的思想,实现铁路计算机网络基础设施、网络边界和局域网环境的安全保障.介绍构成铁路计算机网络安全系统平台的铁路行业数字证书认证、统一用户管理和资源管理、访问控制、病毒防护和应用系统的安全服务5个子系统及其应用,并结合铁路信息化发展提出进一步建设铁路计算机网络安全保障体系的构想.     

高速铁路列控系统CTC子系统仿真换线技术研究

探讨了高速铁路列控系统仿真平台的整体结构和进行多线路仿真自动换线的必要性;针对CTC子系统多线路仿真和自动换线技术进行深入研究,提出采用代理的思想以实现CTC子系统在仿真平台中自动换线的方法。在此基础上,采用武广和京沪线路数据对该方法进行了仿真验证,实验结果表明,应用CTC代理器能够快速地实现CTC子系统自动换线,以提高平台的重复可用性。     

Provably secure and efficient proxy signature with untrustworthy proxy signer

Proxy signature has drawn great concerns.However, there still remains a challenge to construct a provably secure and effcient proxy signature scheme.In this paper, we propose an effcient proxy signature scheme based on factoring, and prove that it is secure in the random oracle.Furthermore, we present a new type of proxy signature, called Proxy Signature with Untrustworthy Proxy Signer, and construct a concrete scheme.     

一种基于离散对数的群代理多重签名方案

在代理签名方案中,代理签名人可代理原始签名人生成签名。然而在已知的代理签名方案中,要么是一个原始签名人授权于一人,要么是一个原始签名人授权于多人,要么是多个原始签名人授权于一人。本文在门限多重代理签名以及代理多重签名的基础上,设计了一种群代理多重签名方案。在这种方案中,多个原始签名人授权于多个代理签名人,只有多个代理人合作才可以代表多个原始签名人生成签名。     

The determinants of car ownership in England and Wales from anonymous 2001 census data

Within the transportation research literature, the attempt to understand and predict the level of car ownership is probably one of the most popular areas of study. The primary reason for this is understandable, having access to a vehicle increases an individual’s (or their household’s) travel options, leading to greater mobility. Secondary reasons for this scrutiny include the need to predict future transport investment in road infrastructure and the commercial demand for new vehicles. This paper attempts to predict the level of household car ownership as a function of the characteristics of the household and the individuals that make up the household. The primary data source for this study comes from the 2001 United Kingdom Census and the analysis methods used are from the discipline of data mining. The results of this study are in line with those from previous research but show a potential to predict the higher levels of household car ownership with greater accuracy than other similar studies.     

A Bayesian approach for modeling origin-destination matrices

The majority of origin destination (OD) matrix estimation methods focus on situations where weak or partial information, derived from sample travel surveys, is available. Information derived from travel census studies, in contrast, covers the entire population of a specific study area of interest. In such cases where reliable historical data exist, statistical methodology may serve as a flexible alternative to traditional travel demand models by incorporating estimation of trip-generation, trip-attraction and trip-distribution in one model. In this research, a statistical Bayesian approach on OD matrix estimation is presented, where modeling of OD flows derived from census data, is related only to a set of general explanatory variables. A Poisson and a negative binomial model are formulated in detail, while emphasis is placed on the hierarchical Poisson-gamma structure of the latter. Problems related to the absence of closed-form expressions are bypassed with the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method known as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The methodology is tested on a realistic application area concerning the Belgian region of Flanders on the level of municipalities. Model comparison indicates that negative binomial likelihood is a more suitable distributional assumption than Poisson likelihood, due to the great degree of overdispersion present in OD flows. Finally, several predictive goodness-of-fit tests on the negative binomial model suggest a good overall fit to the data. In general, Bayesian methodology reduces the overall uncertainty of the estimates by delivering posterior distributions for the parameters of scientific interest as well as predictive distributions for future OD flows.