2020年世界船舶市场评述与2021年展望

回顾了2020年世界经济、航运、造船市场,并对2021年船舶市场进行展望。2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,全球经济整体呈现负增长,导致航运各细分市场情况迥异,除集运市场年底火热外,其他市场均处于低迷状态。新船交付量整体大幅回落,与去年同比减少约31%,市场出现大面积撤单现象,仅海工市场基本面向好。新船建造市场受疫情影响,与2019年同期相比下跌约11%,散货船是今年交付量中唯一呈现增长的船型。2021年预计世界经济同比大幅反弹,航运市场需求将强于供给,市场形势总体将优于2020年;同时,考虑到疫情对市场的影响效应短期持续,预计世界船舶市场将逐步趋于理性,主要船型的新船订单量将朝着长期均衡方向逐步恢复增长,并且绿色和智能依旧是未来的大方向。     

Free-floating bike sharing: Solving real-life large-scale static rebalancing problems

Free-floating bike sharing (FFBS) is an innovative bike sharing model. FFBS saves on start-up cost, in comparison to station-based bike sharing (SBBS), by avoiding construction of expensive docking stations and kiosk machines. FFBS prevents bike theft and offers significant opportunities for smart management by tracking bikes in real-time with built-in GPS. However, like SBBS, the success of FFBS depends on the efficiency of its rebalancing operations to serve the maximal demand as possible.Bicycle rebalancing refers to the reestablishment of the number of bikes at sites to desired quantities by using a fleet of vehicles transporting the bicycles. Static rebalancing for SBBS is a challenging combinatorial optimization problem. FFBS takes it a step further, with an increase in the scale of the problem. This article is the first effort in a series of studies of FFBS planning and management, tackling static rebalancing with single and multiple vehicles. We present a Novel Mixed Integer Linear Program for solving the Static Complete Rebalancing Problem. The proposed formulation, can not only handle single as well as multiple vehicles, but also allows for multiple visits to a node by the same vehicle. We present a hybrid nested large neighborhood search with variable neighborhood descent algorithm, which is both effective and efficient in solving static complete rebalancing problems for large-scale bike sharing programs.Computational experiments were carried out on the 1 Commodity Pickup and Delivery Traveling Salesman Problem (1-PDTSP) instances used previously in the literature and on three new sets of instances, two (one real-life and one general) based on Share-A-Bull Bikes (SABB) FFBS program recently launched at the Tampa campus of University of South Florida and the other based on Divvy SBBS in Chicago. Computational experiments on the 1-PDTSP instances demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms a tabu search algorithm and is highly competitive with exact algorithms previously reported in the literature for solving static rebalancing problems in SBSS. Computational experiments on the SABB and Divvy instances, demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to deal with the increase in scale of the static rebalancing problem pertaining to both FFBS and SBBS, while deriving high-quality solutions in a reasonable amount of CPU time.     

基于语义挖掘的快递运输货品风险评价研究

为提高快递运输的风险监测管控能力，降低因快递货品风险导致城市安全事件发生的可 能性，本文基于语义挖掘方法将快递运输货品描述转化为风险的量化表征，为快递运输风险评价 提供可量化的客观指标依据。基于网络大数据资源提供的法院判决书数据，将物品词条与判决 结果相关联，通过隐狄利克雷分布模型挖掘物品风险主题，结合模糊均值聚类方法，实现对快递 货品语义风险的量化表征与柔性划分。与传统方法中依赖检视人员查验既定违禁品清单后的主 观判断方法不同，本文充分挖掘网络文本数据中的可迁移知识，并应用于种类繁多的快递运输货 品，有效避免人工评价造成的漏检、错检情况。研究结果表明，本文方法具有较高的准确率与较 低的误报率，获得的风险评价值不再是0或1的是非判断，有利于开展多样化、针对性的风险预警 及应对措施。     

生物三射律

三射律包括入射、反射和折射,是干涉律的三大特性和具体形式.相对生物学而言,三射律是生命遗传发育及其与环境因子关系的原因、现象和本质关系的反映.入射、反射和折射这三者既相辅相成又互为作用和制约,存在着矛盾的三角关系.三射律具有相对性、重复性和时空表达等特性.折射率中包含入射与反射二者的全部内容,为生物学的本质,表现为生物遗传率.任一相互作用除双方之外尚有第三个以上的反应结果,任一学科的矛盾事物关系均不例外.     

西堠门大流速深水区钢箱梁运输船定位方案研究

西堠门水道水深、流急、海底无覆盖层,水上施工船投锚固定难度大。分析西堠门大桥钢箱梁的吊装工期要求和吊装规程要求,提出利用大吨位混凝土蛙锚和浮动平台构筑锚碇门桥、实施钢箱梁运输船定位的方案,并对箱梁运输船的水阻力、锚链力进行了初步计算,对工程实施具有指导意义。     

三角闸门门缝输水运行工况研究

门缝输水是三角闸门的一种重要特性。基于三角闸门门缝输水,低水头船闸可以不设置阀门以降低工程建设成本,但具体适用工况尚难把握。依托未设置阀门的大柳巷船闸,采用理论计算与现场实测相结合的方法,分析了门缝输水时水力及启闭力。研究表明:口门越大三角闸门能承受门缝输水的水头越小;目前门缝输水有关计算公式尚需结合三角闸门的结构特点确定流量系数;三角闸门启闭力除按规范公式计算外还应考虑门体缝隙流和惯性阻力矩的影响。     

挖泥船输送系统计算分析软件研制

基于矩阵实验室平台,将挖泥船输送系统的计算仿真程序进行封装处理,建立挖泥船输送系统计算分析软件系统(DTAS)。该系统首次汇集了多种泥泵管路特性曲线的计算方法,包括泥泵及管路数据文件的存储查询、泥泵管路特性曲线的计算以及多种计算模型的选择、施工现场数据反分析、接力泵船的计算等十几个计算模块,可以更加系统化、全面化地进行输送计算分析。DTAS系统界面操作简单,为施工及技术人员提供了便捷的计算工具,大大提高了工作效率,可广泛推广应用。     

大型三角闸门门缝输水运用条件试验研究

裕溪一线船闸扩容改造工程首次将三角闸门的应用口门宽度提高至34 m。为提高船闸的运行效率、充分发挥三角闸门动水启闭的优势,开展了大型三角闸门门缝输水运用条件试验研究。以三角闸门的水动力特性和船舶停泊安全为依据,研究提出裕溪新船闸大型三角闸门门缝输水的运用条件:1)三角闸门采用门缝输水应尽可能在1 m水头差以内开启;2)闸门开度应控制在1 m以内;3)随着水头差减小闸门开度可进一步增大。     

快递网络的要素、结构与上海节点的空间格局

在对快递网络要素、结构详细阐释的基础上,明确快递网络节点的分级和命名;运用GIS 方法对国内外重要快递企业聚集地——上海的主要快递企业服务门店、一级节点（区域中转中心）、二级节点（城市中转场） 及其空间格局的展示和分析表明：（1） 上海主要快递企业的城市 服务门店数量分布从城市中心向外围郊区递减,门店空间集聚表现为“一极多核”格局,门店密度与人口密度分布高度吻合;（2） 上海主要民营快递企业的一级节点、二级节点布局集中于浦东、青浦郊区,且邻近高速公路以及浦东机场、虹桥机场两大枢纽;（3） 国际快递巨头的区域总 部位于上海市中心城区;民营快递巨头总部除了国通位于松江之外,申通、圆通、韵达、中通等 都在青浦区。     

Optimal planning of liquefied natural gas deliveries

We investigate the problem of designing an optimal annual delivery plan for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This problem requires determining the long-term cargo delivery dates and the assignment of vessels to the cargoes while accommodating several constraints, including berth availability, liquefaction terminal inventory, planned maintenance, and bunkering requirements. We describe a novel mixed-integer programming formulation that captures important industry requirements and constraints with the objective of minimizing the vessel fleet size. A peculiar property of the proposed formulation is that it includes a polynomial number of variables and constraints and is, in our experience, computationally tractable for large problem instances using a commercial solver. Extensive computational runs demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model for real instances provided by a major energy company that involve up to 118 cargoes and a 373-day planning horizon.