VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation

Globalization, greenhouse gas emissions and energy concerns, emerging vehicle technologies, and improved statistical modeling capabilities make the present moment an opportune time to revisit aggregate vehicle miles traveled (VMT), energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasting for passenger transportation. Using panel data for the 48 continental states during the period 1998-2008, the authors develop simultaneous equation models for predicting VMT on different road functional classes and examine how different technological solutions and changes in fuel prices can affect passenger VMT. Moreover, a random coefficient panel data model is developed to estimate the influence of various factors (such as demographics, socioeconomic variables, fuel tax, and capacity) on the total amount of passenger VMT in the United States. To assess the influence of each significant factor on VMT, elasticities are estimated. Further, the authors investigate the effect of different policies governing fuel tax and population density on future energy consumption and GHG emissions. The presented methodology and estimation results can assist transportation planners and policy-makers in determining future energy and transportation infrastructure investment needs.     

国际海运温室气体减排措施概述

文中分析了国际海运温室气体排放的特征，介绍了国际海运温室气体减排措施，并对未来发展趋势作出了预测。     

Strategies to achieve deep reductions in metropolitan transportation GHG emissions: the case of Philadelphia

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates strategies that could achieve an 80% reduction in transportation emissions from current levels by 2050 in the City of Philadelphia. The baseline daily lifecycle emissions generated by road transportation in the Greater Philadelphia Region in 2012 were quantified using trip information from the 2012 Household Travel Survey (HTS). Emissions were projected to the year 2050 accounting for population growth and trends in vehicle technology for both the Greater Philadelphia Region and the City of Philadelphia. The impacts of vehicle technology and shifts in travel modes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 were quantified using a scenario approach. The analysis of 12 different scenarios suggests that 80% reduction in emissions is technically feasible through a combination of active transportation, cleaner fuels for public transit vehicles, and a significant market penetration of battery-electric vehicles. The additional electricity demand associated with greater use of electric vehicles could amount to 10.8 TWh/year. The use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) shows promising results due to high reductions in GHG emissions at a potentially manageable cost.     

Eco-driver training within the City of Calgary’s municipal fleet: Monitoring the impact

This article highlights eco-driving as an available policy option to reduce climate altering GHG emissions. Recognizing the need to reduce the environmental impact of its fleet operations, the City of Calgary is a leader in developing programs and policies that aim to reduce GHG emissions and associated pollutants resulting from the use of fossil fuels. Among local action taken against climate change, the City sought to quantify CO₂ emissions reductions from their municipal fleet as a result of eco-driver training, with a specific focus on engine idling. Fifteen drivers from the Development & Building Approvals Business Unit had in-vehicle monitoring technology (CarChips®) installed into their vehicles as part of a three-phase research process. The results show that gasoline and hybrid vehicles decreased average idling between 4% and 10% per vehicle per day, leading to an average emissions decrease of 1.7 kg of CO₂ per vehicle per day.     

Sociological perspectives on travel and mobilities: A review

There is increasing interest in understanding and achieving changes in travel behaviour, but a focus on individual behaviour change may overlook the potential for achieving change via transformation at the levels of institutions, cultures and societies – the domains of sociological inquiry. In this paper, we review sociological contributions to the literature on travel and ‘mobilities’. We summarise four key themes which supplement or contradict arguments made in mainstream transport debates on behaviour change. The first involves focusing on travel ‘practices’ as social entities with dynamics of their own, rather than on individual behaviours. The second relates to the changing natures of societies, and the implications for travel. The third explores and interprets the issue of car dependence in ways which highlight the ethical, experiential and emotional dimensions associated with car use, its symbolic role in societies increasingly concerned with consumption, and its differing roles within different cultures. Finally, the ‘new mobilities paradigm’ highlights issues such as the increasing links between travel and new technologies, and the primacy of social networks in influencing travel decisions. These themes emphasise the importance of understanding the broader contexts in which travel choices are made. In particular, the implication is that the creation of more sustainable travel patterns will require changes at a range of social levels, not simply in individual behaviours, and that changes to transport will inevitably be linked with, and influenced by, broader changes in the values and practices developed by societies as a whole.     

长大列车制动系统减压特性的计算机模拟

本文根据空气动力学原理,建立了包括列车主管和支管的空气制动系统数学模型,并编制了相应程序。建模时,视管内流动为一维、有摩擦、非等熵不定常流,其数学模型的基本方程为一组偏微分方程,采用特征线法求解,应用该程序计算了不同主管直径、长度,不同支管直径、长度,以及不同初压、不同开口比及管内壁粗糙度等因素对减压特性的影响,结果和试验数据基本吻合。     

Quantifying the environmental impacts of increasing high occupancy vehicle lanes in the United States

To what extent will increasing High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lane-kilometer incentivize carpooling and reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases? To answer these questions, we develop a multiple regression model relating HOV lanes and other socioeconomic factors to carpooling propensity in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, then calculate the extent to which increasing HOV lane-kilometers would lead to reductions in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) and major air pollutants across the U.S., by state. Increasing HOV lane extent has the greatest potential to reduce annual CO₂e in the District of Columbia, followed by Hawaii and New York. The smallest potential is found in states with the lowest population density, led by North Dakota. We then explore the extent to which recommendations made at one level of data aggregation (that of individual states) may be valid for another level, such as individual counties. The only state with sufficient data available to disaggregate the model to the county level is California, where we found a lower potential for state-wide CO₂e emission reductions under the county-level model as compared to the state-level model (0.69% as compared to 1.08%, under the same hypothetical scenario), albeit with significant differences in emission reduction potential between counties with higher vs. lower population densities. This analysis demonstrates the potential to generate generalizable insight into the magnitude of vehicle emission reductions that might be achieved through expanding HOV lanes, and highlights the importance of data disaggregation in identifying the optimal locations for potential reductions.     

Does a carbon tax affect the feasibility of Arctic shipping?

The Arctic route has huge potential for shipping between Europe and Northeast Asia with significant savings in transit time and distance. However, GHG emissions from shipping would harm the environment of Arctic area. Potential Market Based Measures of GHG emission reduction (such as carbon tax) are under consideration but they may affect the economic viability of Northern Sea Route (NSR) for containerships. This paper investigates the economic viability of NSR against Suez Canal Route (SCR) under 2 proposed carbon tax schemes (fixed vs. progressive). Three different fuel oil types (Heavy Fuel Oil, Light Fuel Oil, Liquified Natural Gas) are used as main bunker fuel for the calculation of economic feasibility. Our result reveals that when there is no carbon tax on NSR nor SCR, or both routes are under a carbon tax scheme, no matter fixed or progressive, NSR is more economically viable, regardless of fuel type choice. When only NSR is under a carbon tax scheme, the viability depends on specific carbon tax scheme and fuel choice, but for the majority of containership sizes, NSR has lower unit cost. The result also suggests that for a given route, a progressive scheme in preferable than a fixed one and LNG would be an appealing fuel with lower unit cost.     

船舶温室气体减排规则的发展与应对

温室气体排放已成为全球关注的热点。文章介绍了船舶温室气体减排规则的发展进程以及新船能效设计指数的出台和影响,并对减排措施进行了探讨,着重阐述了采用气体燃料这一措施的减排效果。     

Volume and GHG emissions of long-distance travelling by Western Europeans

It is generally recognised that long distance travelling accounts for a significant part of the mileage of person travel. However, estimates have been hardly made. The paper estimates volume and GHG emissions of long-distance travel by Western Europeans. The analysis is predominantly based on data of the DATELINE project, the only EU-wide survey on long-distance travelling, conducted in 2001 and 2002. Some studies demonstrate that DATELINE suffers from serious underreporting of journeys. We analysed the causes for underreporting and developed expansion factors that correct for that. These gave the opportunity to estimate long-distance travel volumes and related GHG emissions in 2001/2002. Next an update to 2013 is made using statistics on the development of tourist travel and patronage of long-distance modes. Defining long distance ⩾100 km crow-fly, the estimates per capita in the Western European countries in 2013 are 7.5 journeys (defined as round-trips), 8600 km, and 1300 kg greenhouse gasses. The estimated total GHG emissions of long-distance travelling is 520 megaton. In the Netherlands and Flanders, countries where data on short-distance travelling were available, long-distance travelling accounts for 45% of the mileage and nearly 50% of the GHG emissions of all person transport. Long-distance travelling is growing and is expected to continue to grow, particularly by air. The GHG emissions are expected to grow as well, though to a smaller extent. Because short-distance travelling is stagnating, the shares of long distance travelling in both mileage and GHG emissions are likely to increase.