应用人工神经网络理论的船舶运动包络预报方法

本文首先介绍了人工神经网络理论的基本内容以及前馈网络反向传播的训练方法，然后应用单隐含层网络作出船舶运动包络的实时预报。文中就一船舶的海上实测运动数据进行了实例计算，结果表明，本文方法的预报结果明显好于其它模型的自适应预报结果。     

天津市雨洪水资源化利用的探讨和研究

根据天津市水资源现状及雨洪水调度的优势 ,提出天津市各河系雨洪水调度方案及其成果显示     

基于期权理论的铁路货运定价模型

为了规避铁路运输企业和协议客户在市场价格波动情况下所面临的风险,在铁路货运的定价过程中引入期权的概念,利用二叉树模型为期权定价,在此基础上构建了基于铁路运输企业和协议客户收益最大条件下的铁路货运定价模型。研究结果表明:通过铁路运输企业和协议客户的最优定价决策可以求得铁路运输企业制定的协议价格和协议客户的期权购买量;协议价格与现货市场价格正相关,与铁路运输企业的长期准备成本正相关、短期准备成本负相关;随着期权价格和期权执行价格的升高,协议客户在契约市场所购买的期权数量逐渐减少。     

基于移动闭塞系统的信号机显示方案分析

地铁移动闭塞信号系统中,由于存在后备模式,地面信号机存在点灯与灭灯2种方案,2种方案各有优劣,通过分析对比,推荐采用亮灯方案。     

超大型预制桥墩吊装过程数值计算

以某跨海工程超大型预制桥墩吊装方案为例,基于有限元分析软件ANSYS建立超大型预制桥墩的数值模型,施加重力场模拟吊装过程,得到了吊装过程中桥墩的受力状态,评定了吊装方案的优劣。针对吊装过程中桥墩及吊装件较危险的受力区域进行分析,提出了优化建议。     

A trial application of FSA methodology to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a formal, structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, property and marine environment, by using risk and cost–benefit assessments. For the application of this methodology to the rule-making process, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) presented the Interim Guidelines, which describe procedures of FSA and inputs/outputs of each procedure in detail. This paper basically deals with an application of FSA methodology according to the IMO's Interim Guidelines to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers, which was carried out as a cooperative research between Korean Register of Shipping and Seoul National University. As results of this application study, 18 hazards are identified and 32 risk control measures are devised to reduce the associated risks. Potential risks, costs and benefits when some Risk Control Options are introduced are evaluated in monetary unit of US $. Finally, some discussions and recommendations based on experiences are also given for both future work and better application of this FSA methodology to the rule-making process.     

重型柴油车NOx排放远程监测准确性研究

文章通过采用不同浓度的反应剂来模拟重型国六柴油车正常状态、临界超标及SCR性能失效状态下的实际道路NOx排放,从而研究远程排放管理平台对超标车型识别的效果。试验结果表明,NOx临界超标与SCR完全失效状态下,远程排放管理平台采集的国六整车实际道路NOx排放与PEMS设备结果基本一致,而正常状态下,尿素过量喷射导致的NH3泄露会对车载NOx传感器精度造成影响,进而导致远程排放管理平台采集的国六整车NOx排放与PEMS设备存在偏差。     

The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

《物权法》的实施对我国船舶登记制度的影响

物权是指权利人依法对特定的物享有直接支配和排他的权利,包括所有权、用益物权和担保物权。随着《物权法》的实施,船舶所有权、抵押权、留置权等有关的物权制度得以清晰和明确。文中从船舶所有权、抵押权等方面分析了《物权法》的实施对我国现行船舶登记制度的影响。     

珠江口海底隧道盾构法施工方案可行性分析

盾构法已经在国内外的地下工程中被广泛运用,特别是国外一些著名的海底盾构隧道,如英吉利海峡隧道、日本东京湾海底公路隧道、荷兰W esterschelde隧道;国内盾构技术也发展迅速,先后建成上海大连路、复兴东路过江盾构隧道,还有在建的上海翔殷路越江公路隧道、上中路隧道和已经开工建设的武汉、南京、上海长江桥隧工程等。这些海底、江底隧道的修建为盾构隧道的发展积累了丰富的经验。文章首先论述了国内外大直径、高水压、长距离推进等盾构施工关键技术,并结合珠江口海底隧道的建设条件与国内外的施工成功实例,对海底隧道盾构法施工方案的可行性进行了初步研究。